Unemployment Numbers Better Than Expected, Rate Cuts?

Question

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/04/despite-all-the-shouting-b...
Just when the “cut rates now” chorus is reaching a fever pitch, Wolf Street drops a reality check: unemployment claims are flat year-over-year and even better than two years ago, and the four-week average remains historically low. This isn't the fragile labor market that pundits want you to believe. Instead, it reflects a resilient, steady foundation.

Let’s break through the noise:
Claims may have ticked up slightly from early August, but compared to data from mid-June, it's a light wobble, not a breakdown.
When we zoom out to the decades-long lens, the current level of initial unemployment claims has only been lower during the tight markets of 2018–19 and the post-pandemic labor shortage years but never before like today.
So I ask: are we reacting to actual stress or just loud headlines?

The data invites us to slow down, take a breath, and question the narrative. A labor market "cracking"? Not seeing it. Are we balancing caution with data, or like every facet of our lives now, tossing political hot takes into the mix?

Jaron Walling · Answer

The problem is most fail without a financial foundation. Small business failure rates generally increase over time. Stats show 65-80% of new businesses fail in the first couple years. Instead of working, establishing a career (regardless if it's the forever job), investing from a young age, setting goals to buy assets, and working the social media side hustle they end up with nothing.

Influencing is big business. YouTube has tightened monetization rules, and platform saturation makes it hard for small guy to go viral. Even established content creators with millions of subs are talking about plateaued growth. I've followed a creator for years who's a clothing/candy entrepreneur. He started Ever Forward clothing and sold sold Sour Strips Candy for $75M to Hersey's. He hasn't gained any followers for years.

Michael Carbonare · Answer

What I see is a generation who would typically be entering the traditional work force, instead have opted out of the W2 world.  A more entrepreneur mindset is now prevalent.  Seems everyone under 30 is trying to make their fortune as an "influencer" on various social media channels.The few small business owners I've spoken to have told me finding employees is a challenge.

Doug Smith · Answer

Florida here as well. I was just talking with someone today about this. The interesting thing I saw in the employment data was the fact that there weren't as many jobs out there...new ones weren't being created at the pace that was expected. I know we're not hiring the support staff that we used to. We've really struggled to find "people that want to work, so we're relying on tech to help. It seems others are doing the same thing and jobs aren't being created at the pace that was expected. That being said, I think people have quit looking for "jobs" and they have started to get much more entrepreneurial. We're living in interesting times. That's a great post you made.