People on the move...middle class moving from expensive cities to cheaper cities

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People on the move...middle class moving from expensive cities to cheaper cities

Account Closed
Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes

Here's an interactive map that uses the 2000 and 2010 census data. 

http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map?ref=us

Notice the following:

Larger, expensive cities have not seen large percentage increases in population (ex. San Francisco just 3.7%, Los Angeles 3.1%, NYC about 4.5%)

Cheaper expanding cities experienced significant population growth (Austin 26.1%, Dallas Area 30-50%, Houston 20.3%, Raleigh 43.5%) 

The Midwest, particularly South Dakota, North Dakota (except Fargo), Nebraska, and Kansas, Iowa, and Montana experienced little growth

I would expect that in the last four years we've seen these trends continue...people moving, primarily the middle class, out of the more expense cities to more affordable cities.

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Account Closed
Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
11y

I bet if you looked at population density per square mile growth then SF, LA and NYC would lead. 

I would also guess that the growth in population from high to lo consisted of non home owners in the high areas.  There are equity immigrants but I think their numbers are generally overstated. 

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  • Account Closed
    Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    11y

    @Account Closed 

     I would agree 100%.  I think people will leave tier I cities (SF, LA, NYC, etc) and move to what I consider tier II cities -- Austin, Raleigh, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, Nashville, etc. 

    People aren't leaving SF for Montana, but might say hey I can move to Minneapolis or Nashville and still have a cosmopolitan life at half the cost.  Makes sense when you get married and have kids if you aren't a post-IPO techie or trust fund baby.  That's what I did and 5 years in Minneapolis with no complaints.

    Well, okay one.  It gets a little cold.

    1Reply
  • Tuan Le
    Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2014 · 142 posts · 32 votes
    11y

    Great resource!

    Thanks for sharing!

    0Reply
  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    It's hard to believe that N. Dakota, S. Dakota and Nebraska haven't had significant increases with oil and energy booming there.

    1Reply
  • Julian L.
    Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 76 posts · 36 votes
    11y

    This is me. I'm in LA and am desperately wanting to get out because of housing costs. 

    1Reply
  • Shelli CallanBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Kalispell, MT · Member since 2013 · 67 posts · 20 votes
    11y

    @Sean 

    @Account Closed  I don't know if we have people coming from SF but we do have a significant amount of people coming from CA and Canada, to Montana. :)

    [email protected]406-212-9081
    Shelli Callan with ADT Realty Campfire Realty Group
    WebsiteView Page
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  • Vicki Gleitz
    bennett, CO · Member since 2014 · 225 posts · 122 votes
    11y

    Pueblo Colorado has low employment and high crime rate compared to many [most] cities. That being said,for a number of reasons, I would estimate that there is about an 89 to 92% likelihood that it will be the next retirement mecca for retiring boomers from more expensive cities within the next five to ten years. 

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  • Account Closed
    Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    I bet if you looked at population density per square mile growth then SF, LA and NYC would lead. 

    I would also guess that the growth in population from high to lo consisted of non home owners in the high areas.  There are equity immigrants but I think their numbers are generally overstated. 

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  • Account Closed
    Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Mike D'Arrigo:

    It's hard to believe that N. Dakota, S. Dakota and Nebraska haven't had significant increases with oil and energy booming there.

    If you had the numbers for those cities in those STATES you would probably see the growth.

    1Reply
  • Matt R.
    Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    Anecdotally, LA is too crowded in most parts. It would be great to feel the net effect of this as far as traffic goes. Never happens though...it just gets worse and worse traffic wise, more construction, tighter living....maybe one day it will reverse. Wishful thinking so far and the way they keep building new multis I don't see anything on horizon either.

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  • Tom Gunnison
    Real Estate Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 81 posts · 6 votes
    11y

    @Vicki Gleitz Pueblo, Colorado a retirement mecca in 5-10 years? Maybe you'll be proven correct but that seems impossible to me. What's your thought process? 

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    Yes @Account Closed 

    Yes, higher multis...is what you'll see.  In San Francisco we've got about 10 high-end multifamily buildings going in...knocking down smaller buildings and building new multis twice as tall.

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Mike D'Arrigo 

    @Account Closed 

    Keep in mind that these numbers are only accounting for the period from 2000 to 2010, not 2010-2014.

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Mike D'Arrigo 

    @Account Closed 

    @Vicki Gleitz 

    @Matt R. 

    Here's more detail on actual migration...

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    Not only the middle class, but people in all income categories are moving South and West (warmer climates). As someone with family in NYC living in San Francisco, I certainly feel that many high-income earning New Yorkers are moving West to CA.

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    But...you can see that people in the middle income category ($20,000 to $50,000) are not moving west...they are moving South.

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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y
    0Reply
  • Ndy Onyido
    Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2014 · 615 posts · 172 votes
    11y

    This certainly points to where next to expect economic prosperity with respect to real estste investment. Houston and Dallas are of particular interest and we have seen relatively strong  property appreciation lately.

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  • Vicki Gleitz
    bennett, CO · Member since 2014 · 225 posts · 122 votes
    11y

    Tom Gunnison.  I tend to "lose my words" when I come to BP,but I will do my best to explain a very few reasons.  I first became interested in Pueblo after reading an article about Pueblo online by a geographical statistician [ I know that is not the actual title] who teaches statistics at the university. Justin is obviously 'creatively wired," so I started researching.  Soon after that I spoke with a friend in the support group that I attend, who, after his own research, gave me the numbers I quoted.. If you have ever seen the movie 'Mozart and the Whale," Bills' thinking is similar to the character portrayed as the male lead [ the movie is actually based on a true story] Though Bill,like most of us, is socially inept, he is beyond mere genius with numbers AND with projecting non-Autistic peoples actions.

    Initially the plan was to buy a large Autistic house in Thornton,[and build from there] but when it became clear that my son had enough money saved up to buy a home with cash in Pueblo, our group started looking more seriously at Pueblo.

    I will not go into detail as exactly why Pueblo would be a good place to build an intentional community within an already existing community, because that is not pertinent. Our future community, though, for many reasons, if successful, will be one element in Pueblos' growth. Just one reason is because there are already Silicon Valley folks interested in moving a portion of their company to Pueblo if we can make the community work.

    AARP has rated Pueblo as one of the best places for a retiree on a less than huge income to comfortably live.  It has been rated sixth in historical preservation, second best kids museum in the country and second best food festival. more sunny days than practically any city, and if you like that "old time community feel," how about a city park that has has kiddie rides for a quarter?

    Pueblo has been rated as one of the least expensive city of its' size in the country.[I believe this is in LIVABILITY 2012] 

    I was just about to touch on the impact that Arkansas River Walk is practically destined to have on Pueblos' economy but I need to make Christmas cookies with my youngest grand daughter. I can elaborate later id you would like.

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Bob Bowling 

    I don't think I agree. The census measures all population growth, both owners and renters.  Many of the people moving  from NY to NC are owners, not renters....because they're moving so they can BUY a property.

    Just based on anecdotal evidence it seems that people that move away from SF leave because they cannot afford a home.  Or they have a home but when the job ends and the retirement income is small they have to use the home equity to live in retirement. 

    If you were smart and bought a home early in life you'd be giving up a lot to leave CA.  With a fixed paid down mortgage, a low Prop 13 tax base your are living in one of the best places on earth for very little.  Homeowners that I see leave have strong family ties elsewhere or get caught up in the 5,000 sf home for one third the price.  Most of them eventually realize the 5,000 sf house costs more to maintain and that the only reason to need so much space is because they are cooped up much of the year because of weather.

    2Reply
  • Brandon Foken
    Wholesaler · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2012 · 259 posts · 147 votes
    11y

    Cool article and data. I'd be interested in seeing population shifts in the Bay Area, @Account Closed . Seems like there is a decent amount of migration from SF and the peninsula to the East (and somewhat to the North, past Marin county). I was a part of 2 projects in Oakland earlier this year and both buyers were from SF. Anecdotal evidence suggests this is part of a larger trend, but I haven't seen any hard numbers to back that up. Seems people (like me!) are getting tired of sky-high rents and are going to Oakland and the surrounding cities for cheaper cost-of-living with a bit more space as well.

    2Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Brandon Foken:

    Cool article and data. I'd be interested in seeing population shifts in the Bay Area, @Account Closed . Seems like there is a decent amount of migration from SF and the peninsula to the East (and somewhat to the North, past Marin county). I was a part of 2 projects in Oakland earlier this year and both buyers were from SF. Anecdotal evidence suggests this is part of a larger trend, but I haven't seen any hard numbers to back that up. Seems people (like me!) are getting tired of sky-high rents and are going to Oakland and the surrounding cities for cheaper cost-of-living with a bit more space as well.

    Population shifts in the Bay Area/Ca will to some degree track Prop 90 benefits where you can take your low Prop 13 benefit with you under certain conditions.  Originally there were 30 of the 58 CA counties that participated.  Up until about 2000 there were only ten and they were in alphabetical order (because that's how I remembered them) Alameda, Kern and LA,  Modoc, Monterrey, Orange, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Ventura. 

    2Reply
  • George N.
    Investor · Great Falls, MT · Member since 2014 · 163 posts · 132 votes
    11y

    If you look more closely Montana and many northwestern markets are actually seeing very strong population growth. Look at places like Bozeman, Missoula, Boise, etc. It's not just a more laid back rural lifestyle, a lot of these cities are hip college towns with plenty of culture etc. On the other hand, places like NYC and LA are maintaining their population mostly though a mass influx of low wage/low education immigrants while the more well heeled leaving.

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  • Pavel Sakurets
    Investor · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 74 votes
    11y

    I always thought that people move primarily where there is a higher jobs' growth rate. Many real estate researches are done based on the jobs' growth rate.

    Housing reasons for moving are typically done inside of the same county and they come second after the jobs related moves.

    Check out this research for reasons to move done by the Gov in 2014

    http://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p20-574.pdf 

    1Reply
  • Melodee Lucido
    Real Estate Investor · OR · Member since 2012 · 390 posts · 133 votes
    11y

    Something else to considered is the Boomer trend of retirement. Boomers have changed many industries as they have gone through the decades. Now, many of them are moving . . to be closer to family, to downsize and simplify, to be more comfortable (weather and affordability) and to have logistics that afford them ease of mobility.

    Boomers don't want to have to drive long distances in traffic or live in big houses. Many desire smaller communities where there is a sense of connected-ness and convenience.

    There's lots of fascinating reading about this generation of people, the largest in history, that will affect those of us in the real estate industry. This is just one good article about why and where they will be moving.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/nextavenue/2013/08/09/what-the-end-of-the-suburbs-means-for-boomers/2/

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  • Robert Warren
    Real Estate Investor · Ridgway, CO · Member since 2014 · 76 posts · 10 votes
    11y

    There is also migration within this region.  A lot of down sizing here in Western Colorado.  Less is more: expenses of all kinds, taxes, size of home and property.  Moving from the big acreages with stunning views to town and closer to amenities.

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