Fed's Powell Signals Rate Cut Ahead

[Derek Brickley]

The Fed just signaled a shift—and the market is paying attention. Here’s what you need to know this week:

📉 Powell Hints at a Rate Cut

At Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell said the Fed may need to “adjust our policy stance.” Translation: a rate cut is officially on the table for their September 17 meeting.

👉 Why it matters: The Fed sees risks shifting—between inflation and jobs—which means mortgage rates could finally get some relief depending on upcoming data.

🏠 Existing Home Sales Jump

July sales rebounded 2% after a drop in June. Inventory is still tight, but at its highest level in 5 years. Median prices dipped to $422K.

👉 Buyers finally have some negotiating power—the best window in years according to NAR.

🔨 Builder Confidence Still Sluggish

Confidence dipped to 32 (anything under 50 = contraction). That’s 16 straight months of weak sentiment.

👉 Builders are still cautious, waiting on better affordability and lower rates.

🚧 Surprise Boost in Housing Starts

Starts jumped 5.2% in July—best since February. But permits (future builds) dropped 2.8% to a 5-year low.

👉 Short-term activity up, long-term pipeline tightening.

📉 Jobless Claims Stay Elevated

Initial claims rose to 235K. Continuing claims hit 1.97M—a 4-year high.

👉 It’s taking longer for people to find jobs. Fed is watching closely.

📅 Coming Up This Week

• New Home Sales (Mon) • Home Price Appreciation (Tues) • Pending Sales + Jobless Claims (Thurs) • PCE Inflation Report (Fri)

Catch you next week.