Shutdown Delays Data, Job Growth Stalls

[Derek Brickley]

Week of September 29, 2025

Hey everyone!

It was a quiet but telling week for the economy. The government shutdown paused official data releases, but private reports still gave us a glimpse into what’s happening — and it’s pointing toward slower job growth, steady housing momentum, and likely lower rates ahead.

💼 Private Sector Job Growth Stalls in September

ADP reported the private sector lost 32,000 jobs last month — a sharp miss from the +50,000 forecast. Small and mid-sized businesses led the declines, while education, health care, and large companies were the only bright spots.

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👉 Bottom line for housing and rates: Hiring has now slowed in three of the last four months, and job losses like this usually ease pressure on the Fed to keep rates high. That’s good news for buyers hoping for more affordability this fall.

📊 Government Shutdown Delays Key Reports

The shutdown paused major data releases — including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report and weekly unemployment claims — both of which typically drive market movement.

👉 Bottom line: The Fed’s October 29 meeting will happen with limited new data. With inflation cooling and employment weakening, odds still favor another rate cut this fall.

📉 Job Openings Stay Weak

August job openings came in at 7.2 million — holding near a two-year low and far below the 2022 peak of over 12 million. The hiring rate and quit rate also remain near decade lows, signaling fewer opportunities and lower worker confidence.

👉 Bottom line: A softer labor market supports falling mortgage rates — but slower hiring could also weigh on consumer spending later in the year.

🏡 Home Price Growth Slows, But Demand Rebounds

Home prices continued rising modestly — up 1.7% year-over-year per Case-Shiller — though growth is clearly cooling. FHFA’s index showed a similar 2.3% annual gain. Meanwhile, pending home sales jumped 4% in August, and new home sales have been trending higher as mortgage rates ease.

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👉 Bottom line: Housing demand is returning as rates pull back. If that trend holds, price growth could reaccelerate heading into winter.

📅 What’s Coming Up This Week

Home price data from ICE and Cotality will be released, but government reports like jobless claims will likely stay on hold until the shutdown ends.

Catch you next week, Derek Brickley