Home Builder Confidence Hits 6-Month High

[Derek Brickley]

Week of October 13, 2025

Hey everyone,

We got some surprisingly positive housing data this week — builder confidence is climbing, and the Fed’s Beige Book gives us clues on what could happen with rates next. Here’s the breakdown 👇

🏗️ Home Builder Confidence Reaches Highest Level Since April

Builder sentiment jumped 5 points to 37 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders — the highest reading since April and a welcome change after months of stagnation.

All three index components improved:

• Buyer traffic: up to 25 (+4 points)
• Current sales: up to 38 (+4 points)
• Future sales: jumped above 50 for the first time since January

📊 Bottom line: While we’re still below the 50 mark that signals true expansion, this is a big step in the right direction. Easing mortgage rates are giving affordability a lift, and NAHB economists say this could signal stronger single-family construction in 2026 — great news for long-term inventory growth.

📘 Beige Book Gains Importance Amid Shutdown Delays

The Fed’s Beige Book — which summarizes business and economic conditions across all 12 districts — showed mixed momentum. Three regions reported modest growth, five were flat, and four saw slight softening.

Key takeaways:

• Consumer spending is slowing, especially among middle-income households.
• Businesses are facing tough choices: absorb rising costs or pass them to customers.
• Employment remains steady, but some firms are quietly cutting staff or slowing hiring.

📊 Bottom line: Normally, the Fed would weigh this against detailed inflation and jobs data. But with those reports delayed due to the shutdown, the Beige Book will carry extra weight heading into the October 29 Fed meeting. Markets expect another 0.25% rate cut, which could further ease mortgage rates this fall.

📅 What’s Coming Up This Week

• Thursday: Existing Home Sales for September (NAR)
• Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — still scheduled despite shutdown, since it’s tied to Social Security adjustments

If CPI shows inflation holding steady or improving, that could give the Fed even more reason to ease up.

Catch you next week, Derek Brickley #LoansbyDB