Future-Proof Real Estate? Coastal & Climate Refuge Investment Considerations 🌎

[AJ Wong]

If you think real estate trends are all about mortgage rates and migration stats — take a step back and look at the next 20–30 years:

Where will people still want to live as the climate shifts?

“Climate refuge” cities and regions are about to become one of the biggest long-game angles in real estate — and smart investors are quietly looking beyond today’s hot markets for tomorrow’s livable, affordable, and resilient sweet spots.

Politics and ‘beliefs’ aside - there are plenty of recent real estate investors that can tell you of the reality of increasing weather risk or loss and the costs associated with operating or owning in what are increasingly higher risk areas.

For example: My father owns a sub $500K home in St Lucie County Florida - a region that I'm from and would love to get back to investing in one day…but his insurance premium is nearing $6K annually and if we extrapolate the rate of insurance increase over the duration of a conventional 30 year mortgage - my money is on some areas becoming un-investable. As an example here in Oregon - the riverfront cottage we're currently in contract in has an annual home owner's insurance premium of $1150+/- I could've never imagined many of the natural disasters and inconveniences that have occurred since I left LA for the southern Oregon Coast in late 2018; global pandemic, 2020 wildfires, multiple heatwaves, LA wildfires and the flood disasters in many prime STR areas - that have in a converse and perverse way been validation of Oregon Coastal investment timing and strategy.

A few years ago Yahoo did an in depth study of areas that would be most 'positively' or 'negatively' impacted by climate risk by region - the #1 county in terms of 'positive' climate change risk in the PNW was Curry County Oregon - where my first and latest investment properties are located.

What Makes a Good Climate Haven?

When I vet a future-proof market, I’m watching for:

• Improving habitability: Milder summers, cooler nights, stable air quality, lower flood and fire risk.
• Water security: Access to groundwater, rivers, or steady rainfall.
• Lower wildfire exposure: Coastal edges or greener corridors where burn risk is historically lower.
• Existing migration momentum: People already relocating from higher-risk zones like the Southwest or parts of Northern California.
• Cost of living: Still affordable enough that buyers, retirees, and remote workers aren’t priced out.
• Business/food pivots: Watch vineyards, growers, and small ag operations — many are migrating north for better growing conditions.

Coastal Edges Are Back in Play

One of the most interesting shifts? Well-situated coastal towns not hammered by hurricanes, extreme floods, or sea-level squeeze.

Example:

• The Oregon Coast is seeing quiet migration from Northern California and the inland West. Wildfire risk drops sharply west of the coastal range.
• Plenty of rainfall + natural aquifers = stronger water supply than drought-prone zones.
• New micro-industries popping up: boutique vineyards moving north, creative remote work communities, regenerative ag, eco-tourism.

Cost of Entry vs Future Demand

Some “climate refuge” cities are already pricing in the trend — look at Burlington, VT or coastal Maine. But many coastal micro-markets are still affordable enough that you’re not competing with big hedge funds yet:

• Ocean-view homes still under $1M
• Reasonable short-term rental rules in small towns
• Off-season bookings from storm watchers, anglers, and remote workers who don’t want 110°F summers

Real Example: Vineyards on the Move

One of my favorite signals? Wineries.
Parts of Northern California wine country are quietly buying Oregon Coast foothills land — cooler summers, plenty of water, longer growing seasons as inland temps spike.

If grapes and growers pivot north for habitability, so do lifestyle buyers, tourists, and long-term demand for premium homes.

If you’re only watching short-term migration trends, you’re missing the real story:

Where will people still thrive when it’s hotter, drier, or burn-prone somewhere else?

A "boring" coastal STR or second home in the right climate corridor can turn into a legacy property — cash flowing now, appreciating steadily, and staying livable while other regions scramble for water or shade.

Curious what others see as future climate havens? Drop your picks below — or keep ‘em cryptic if you must.

Who’s quietly buying for 2040, not just 2025?