Massive Turn of Events

[Mike Dymski]

Wow, the unemployment rate (from the BLS monthly survey) was forecast to jump from 14.7% in mid-April to 19.5% in mid-May and, instead, it dropped to 13.3% with a net 2.5 million jobs added.  Massive turn of events.  The weekly report from yesterday (from state unemployment agency reporting to the BLS) disclosed 1.9 million new claims and an increase in the Continuing Claims of $0.6 million.  The weekly state reports are typically a leading indicator for the monthly survey reports but not right now (in spite of week after week of rising weekly claims).  We all knew that many state agencies were backlogged in processing claims, and this disconnect in weekly (state agency) vs monthly (survey) reporting supports that thesis.

Strange to get excited about a 13.3% UE rate but this was a massive turn of events from the 19.5% expected rate.