All Forum Posts by: Dave Kennedy

Is there a good database or do you just hop from each banks website and search for properties?

Hahaha...that's what some people do.

I agree. Although I don't think people really see homes as a high return investment. I think they looked at it as they can't lose money with a housing investment. I think you are seeing the bottom drop out on stocks faster just because they are more liquid and in a sense intangible. To most people...whats a stock? Its not something you really see, hold, feel...unless you go get your certs., but no one in the general public does that. While a home is more a tangible hard asset that they see. You can see the materials, land, technology. So they have a more difficult time devaluing that type of investment then stocks. Not to mention the personal value homes hold, people become attached.

It's a lot easier to sell a stock at a lose and blame a bad CEO then it is to sell a house at a lose and blame yourself for over buying and not using common sense.

I'm not sure I see that 400-1000 level possible. I'd be utterly shocked to see that. I think your call of 5,500 is definately possible and you are right on the money with the 7,200 barrier. If you use Fibonaci with the wave theory 7,200 is the next key barrier.

Sounds the tsunami alarm. This one is bigger.

As I mentioned a month ago in this first post..Wave 2.

I think it crested today and broke....look out below. Newer lows all over the place.

Credit loosened briefly for a brief time after the bailout announcement. If you look at the CMBS swaps they are through the roof, beyond the early Oct levels pre bailout. They are up 300% in the last week. The banks are tigtening up once again.

The auto makers is just another kick in the pants. This $25 B bailout is going to do jack sh*t! Its not going to make people buy cars, right now at the current purchasing levels of consumers in the car market none of the big 3 can turn a profit, regardless of the $25 B going through. How far does that money go across 3 companies....? AIG burned through $85 Billion like it a 2 week pay check.

Banks who are receiving money aren't using it to lend they are buying/acquiring other financial companies that are in trouble. Not the point of the money.

Unemployment claims are going to go up substaintially through the holidays.

Q4 when it hits the street is going to be absolute murder for retailers compared to this time last year.

This second wave will cause additional panic...because we had stabilized briefly and many people thought the worst was over. As we hit new lows people more liquidation of stocks and mutual funds.

You can bet with all these layoffs foreclosures continue to rise and we are hitting a second wave of rate resets going into 2010 to add more salt to the wounds.

I see another 15% or more...which would put us below 6,500.

I think the column is a little over board. I don't doubt we are in for some rought economic times ahead but I'm not so sure we will see total anarchy in the US. I can hardly believe the US following a leader to the likes of Hitler, Lenin, Milosevic,...etc

The entire idea of our government is to have checks and balances, I'm not sure one person could reign that much power here in the US. Unless the Senate and House all act as one along with the president.

I am concerned at the rate in which the government is begining to control different bodies banks, insurance, brokers...etc

I'm more concerned about some type of attack or test on america if Obama is elected. Bidens comments the other day were foolish (hurting his party) and sobering. Anyone catch those?

Don't try to be a hero either.

Some people go into it 110%, they start off going 4 or 5 days a week, 2 hours a day. Then they tail off and slowly stop going.

You have to make that first hurdle low enough so it becomes HABIT.

Shoot for 2 days a week, say one day in the middle of the week and one weekend day. Go for 1.5 hours.

Do it religiously for 2 months and if you can throw in an extra day here or there do it.

I find the breaking point is around 2-3 months and thats when people give up. Don't make excuses like its to cold, to dark, your hungry...etc. Pick your 2 days and stick with them.

Then eventually you work up to 3 or 4 days a week and maybe run or bike the days you dont go. It really becomes habit and that is the key. I am in good shape and go frequently and when I miss 2 days in a row I feel like the all my muscle is deteriorating and I am a slob.

Going to the gym or running is like sleeping, eating and showering to me now. It's weird when I don't do it.

I feel your pain about the lean frame. I am 6 feet 170. I'll never be a muscle man and its just something you have to deal with. I have good definition and I am healthy and that is the main idea behind working out. Sure I'd like to have a huge chest, hulking biceps and big calfs but my body will only get so big.

220k buying at 212k is slim.

220k * .03 (commision) = 6.6k

8k-6.6k = 1.4k - cost of marketing and legal/paper work fees.

You'd be lucky to break even and thats if you get your ask.

I think you need to focus on properties with more of a margin.

Mike does the 50% include taxes and insurance payments?

Otherwise that 1,013 would have to cover PITI and would probably mean 155k is to high.

Could we see another substaintial downturn in the market?

It's funny how quickly the media swung after Monday's huge gain. Everyone said how it was over sold and this was due. They expected the market to float closer to 10,000 in the coming months. Although they didn't expect much appreciation. They said it was most likely the bottom.

Its true in the next week or two we may catch or breath from this huge fall but I don't think it's over.

Wave 1 of the selling, was a bit of panic and also the banks/investment companies dragging everything down with it. A lot of the down turn hasn't effective quarterly earnings reports just yet. We are seeing a glimmer of it now in the Q3 reports....the real blood will be in Q4 and 2009 forecasts.

The retail numbers that came out today and led to the sell off are really just the begining of what investors will see on balance sheets/income statments. They realeased a 1.2% drop in sales in the month of September, which was before this colossal market crash. Think of what Octobers numbers will look like and how about this years holiday season vs last years.

Although we may stablize in the near term I think we will shortly see wave 2 of this market sell off , this time based on real numbers.

Though many believe this is already priced into the market, I don't believe it is fully priced in. I think estimates/sales/target numbers are going to be crushed and it will probably lead to a phase 2 of panic selling.

You'll also see unemployment numbers rising which really scares main street, because it hits home more.

I think we've got a ways to go in the Market sell off. Today was just a small indicator.