All Forum Posts by: Bryan Devitt

@Matt Cupp yes, all of then must pass the criteria individually and make sure you put them all on a single lease unless you want to be a babysitter/therapist/broke

 All of the "temporary" QE that was done in 08+ was barely ever let expire. For the most part they just kept rolling the treasuries they were buying when they matured. The fed has now gone way past the peak of the 08 QE and in the last two weeks alone that they have reported on have purchased over $1T in various "assets" that are very much worthless in a lot of cases (mortgage backed, car loan backed, corporate debt on companies that will default, etc). We're all going to be left holding the bag when this is done to the tune of many many trillions of worthless dollars. The only way the government doesn't default is to create massive inflation. IMO it will get very much out of control and hit hyper inflation territory in short order. Their 2% "target" was already a "2% averaged target" and we were above 3% even by the BS government standards before this even happened. They are also claiming there is a "cash shortage" and they need to print dollars to "create balance in the system". They printed over $1T in cash so far since this started. I am going to preface this by saying I am not a monetary expert and this should not be taken as advice. There is a higher possibility that inflation gets away from them than they can control it, for this reason I am going to be using as much leverage as I can while keeping my real money in appreciating assets (real appreciation, not by dollar standards) so that if inflation does balloon up, the debt is partially wiped out with inflation and when I convert my real assets back to dollars I will be getting a better ration and spending less real money to pay off the debt. Worst case my real asset to dollar ration doesn't move and when I cash it in as payments are due I am getting the same ratio. 

@Susmitha Pranitha tell them due to the current issues with the economy you wouldn't feel right raising their rent so you won't raise the rent this year. This tells them to expect one next year. If you don't raise it for too long though, some tenants will develop an entitlement mentality and get pissed when you raise the rent and go all Greta on you "How dare you! I've been here for 5 years, you can't raise my rent"

@Kenneth Garrett don't forget to include the back door stimulus (fed reserve money printing and purchasing stocks, bonds, etc.) With that added in we will be at a minimum of 10T when this is all done

@Christian Rojmar it took the housing market 24 months to hit bottom last time. This time they're giving up to 360 days of mortgage relief, so if this spurs another housing drop (I feel it will) then it would be either in multiple parts or most of it will be pushed off an additional 12 months from where it would have been.

@Anthony Sherman you stated what seem like the facts of the situation but you never actually asked a question about it

@Kirk R. As stated, its rigged now. It wasn't before but it is now. The Fed is using a 3rd party to buy stocks, keeping the prices artificially high in order to fake it so the crash doesn't seem as bad as it really is. With that said, it took 19 months until we hit bottom when the housing bubble popped, we're 1 months in. The government has only passed enough stimulus to rig part of the system for 2 months, there will be another dip in 5 weeks, them another stimulus package worth another 2 or 3 Trillion, it will go up again and slowly come down. They will hold another stimulus package out like a carrot until elections and maybe pass it after elections, who the package actually helps will depend on who wins and loses on election day. We are far from the bottom coming though so give it time

We're still working on our projects. Even states that are issuing shelter in place are deeming construction workers to be essential employees from what I have seen in MA and CA, not sure about other states. There are a lot of "essential" employees that can go to work, but somehow everyone we employ with our taxes locally (that rarely are face to face with people and collect their checks no matter what) aren't on the list. Funny how that works. 

The federal reserve started doing stimulus months ago and already spent more than during the housing bubble recession. $1T is the tip of the iceberg as far as what is going to be spent. I would be surprised if $6T isn't spent and handed out to banks, companies, people and state and local governments by the end of this 

 IMO property values will go down, much like the housing crisis for these reasons:

1. The housing bubble was never fixed. The government patched it up and pushed it on its way.  

      a. Most housing "reforms" have been rolled back, including no-doc loans and 580 credit scores

      b. banks are holding 800k houses on their balance sheets still because they couldn't get rid of them, when banks are in trouble again and need cash, they might flood the market with them

     c. big funds own millions of houses as rentals

2. People are going to stop paying rent

     a. With the projected unemployment rate to spike again, a LOT of people will not be able to pay rent

     b. Landlords who have purchases buildings in highly desirable areas with almost no fudge factor will have to dump those buildings unless they can float the gap and the legal fees for an eviction (which will take an unprecedented amount of time 

     c. remember all of those rentals held by big funds? what happens when 10% or more stop paying rent?       

3. People will stop paying mortgages

     a. this shouldn't be as bad as the housing bubble, but with other factors contributing, who knows 

I think that is it off the top of my head for now