@Gregory Schwartz
I love your question man (the one you kicked the thread off with).
I'll give you some direct thoughts/answers that are hopefully useful in dialing in a plan. And I'll walk through how I think about dialing in a lead gen plan in a market.
For that budget, $1k-$2k/mo... there will be some give and take. It'll either be you'll need to roll up the sleeves and do more of the grunt work to keep cost down... or you'll need to expect a deal every 3-6+ months.
Let me give as direct answers to your 4 questions as possible then I'll dive deeper. I'm going to assume the higher range of your budget ($2k/mo) for the sake of my answers below.
1. What’s working best for you at this budget?
For me, it's all about the math. The answer is in the math. Pick a channel, commit to it for long-term, then let the math work in your favor.
PPC you'll want to expect $3k-$5k budget before you should expect a deal. Could be sooner, could be longer, but that's the range. It works in your market as well. But w/ that budget it may turn into... that's a possibility of 3-6 deals a year from that channel.
Tips: w/ PPC the prospects are often more motivated at that point as they're actively looking for a solution, so they tend to hit multiple websites, so w/ SEO and PPC leads answering them live and/or calling back within 1-5 mins increases your close ratio dramatically. So you'll have to be ready to answer live and/or have amazing followup in place to squeeze out the best results possible. If you're going to hire out the Google PPC management... that'll be min $800/mo for anyone who knows this market well and is any good... so that leads $1200/mo for ad costs... at prob $150-$350 per lead... that's 3-6 leads a month... at 1 in 15 Google PPC leads close into a deal... that's a deal about every 3-5 months on average.
Mailers would be similar type math... response rates on direct mail has gone down in the past 5 years, but it still works to pull out great deals. I can't say for sure in your market with the right list how many pieces you'll need to send, but our clients are reporting it being normal to have 5,000 pieces to close a deal. If a piece with postage is around $1 (plus or minus depending on the type) that's an estimate of a deal about every 3-5 months (rough math).
Other methods though like Cold Calling could possibly be lower cost, but you're generating a lot of unqualified sellers and leads... so the game then is to be really good at creating / stacking lists, managing the VA cold calling service to hit their connected call and qualified lead #'s, and getting really solid followup systems in place. It works, it's just a different type of marketing vs. people coming to you. Not my preference but some of our top clients still do really really well cold calling.
2. Should I stick with mailers or explore cold calling, PPC, SMS, etc.?
I'd avoid SMS for sure, especially as an agent with more regulation oversight. SMS is getting pretty sticky these days. Still work? Yes. Sustainable and put you in legal risk? Yes very possibly. My rule of thumb is always... to "Scale the bright spots".
I always look at what has worked for me in the past (because that has less risk since it's a known thing to me), and I ask... "Can I scale this? Does it have room to grow?". So I'd start and scale what worked for you in the past UNLESS you hated the type of leads you got and/or it created pains in your business you don't want back.
The challenge w/ scaling driving for dollars is it requires time... you or you'll need to hire someone (uber drivers, delivery drivers, etc) to drive for you and incentivize them to add properties to DM for you. It can work great, it just takes time so the leverage is low for you unless you get help w/ the driving part. I know DM has great list building features now that they didn't have in '20, so that's a way to pull data on properties/sellers that may have more likelihood in selling soon... and cold calling or sending mail to them. PPC I answered above. YES it'll work great in your market. The challenge is budget especially if you're going to hire the PPC management out (which I'd highly suggest). We can help guide you here if you need any help. Happy to be a resource.
3. What lists have been most effective for motivated sellers?
I texted some of my top investor/agents who are doing direct mail who are closing deals every month from it... there are so many data points... but they all said "probate and tire landlords" are among their top type of prospect they target.
4. Any lessons learned from your experience?
Oh, boy! Tons. But like Jerryll mentioned, it's more of a mindset thing vs. a tactical thing. Tactics and marketing channels change over time... but the marketing strategy and mindset really don't.
At a high level... after working w/ literally thousands of real estate investors and agents generating millions of motivated house seller leads the past 10+ years at Carrot (and 4+ years prior)... for marketing... the one who is able to pay the most for the lead will have the advantage.
I've been working directly w/ execs in the biggest brokerages in the US the past few years... and they all say "We want our agents to get these good seller leads you guys get!".
The challenge is... it is very difficult to make motivated seller marketing work well on real estate agent commissions.
Motivated house seller marketing works well when you can what the marketing world calls... "liquidate" the advertising cost quickly... ideally within 60 days max. Meaning... if I put $3k in advertising cost in for March... I need to at minimum get all of that $3k back within 60 days from a deal closing... and within 6 months that $3k needs to turn into a min of 4x that ($12k in revenue) or the numbers don't work out very well. Most agents run on the model of listing a property, which can take 2-6 months to sell and receive the commission... then I see most agents turning that paid marketing channel off 4-6 months in because they're in $8k deep with no revenue to show for it yet... so they say "This isn't sustainable... I need to kill this".
For agents to truly thrive doing motivated seller marketing I feel it's 1 of 2 mindsets (and I personally would only consider 1 of these mindsets one I'd choose):
1. "I'll set a monthly emotion based budget and over this next year, hope it turns into profits from listings. I'll put $2k/mo into this and see what it does".
2. "I'll market based on math... and I'll be a hybrid agent/investor... making cash offers on properties... 80% will be retail listing prospects... 20% max will be open to a discount cash offer. Those ones I'll "wholesale" to my investor buyers so it's a win-win".
A standard 2-6% agent commission on deals is really really difficult to make direct to seller marketing work as it's the big deals that make it all work. The agent commissions pay for the marketing to happen.
I'd be happy to explain more deeply below how I would set a budget for a campaign...
... but at a high level I'll ask...
1. How much money do I want to earn this year?
2. What is my average profit per deal?
3. How many deals do I need to do then to hit that revenue goal?
4. How many leads do I need to bring in to get a deal through the marketing channel I'm using?
- SEO - 1 in 5-15 leads into a deal
- PPC - 1 in 10-20 leads into a deal
- FB ads - 1 in 20-30 leads into a deal
- Direct Mail - 1 in 40-60 "leads" into a deal
- Cold Calling - 1 in 50-70 leads into a deal
5. How do I spin up a solid marketing plan w/ that channel to bring in that number of leads?
6. Am I going to do that work myself or hire it out?
Happy to map it out further in a post below! Short answer, is any of those channels will work, all will likely be somewhere between $3k-$5k per deal for a paid channel OR some real time for a channel like cold calling or SEO if you're doing the work yourself.
So it all starts with your goal... how much revenue and/or deals do you want to do in '25 with your direct to seller marketing? Then we can work it backwards and pick the best channel.
Happy to help ya make a plan man! Can hop on a call anytime. You don't need to be a client of mine. It's fun for me.