All Forum Posts by: Chris John

Lol.  Posts like this have me ready for Galt's Gulch.  WHAT. HAPPENED. TO. AMERICA????

I know I've pointed this out, but I still think the comparison should be price per square foot.  To me, with low interest rates and easy money, that's a great time to trade up into a larger house.  With higher interest rates, I'm thinking that more smaller houses are being sold.  So, are we seeing a price drop because houses are actually getting cheaper or are more smaller houses selling which makes it look like prices are coming down?  No idea. 

I'd like to see @Greg R. and @James Hamling come up with competing sets of data and argue about it though!  haha.

I truly believe I learned as much about plotting real estate deals by playing Dungeon and Dragons as a kid as I did by reading real estate books, etc.  Anyone can learn rules, but decision making, thinking outside the box, working with others, building a team, etc. are more important skills in my opinion.  And, in my opinion, playing D&D actually helped build those skills.

Ladies, sorry, I'm already married.  You're gonna have to go looking for your D&D guy in some other basement.  haha.

@Traci Jacob

My buddy found a lender that had him buy it as a second home so he only had to put 10% down.  Feel free to PM me if you'd like the lender's contact info.  Best wishes!

They didn't include my link (even though it REALLY looked like it was going to).  Frustrating.  Anyway, it's called "Seattle is Dying" and it's on youtube

@Ned J.

I mean, we probably agree on more than not.  Having said that, you seem to feel badly for Seattle tenants, or want to punish the "big dog" landlords, or whatever.  I, on the other hand, don't care what happens to any of them.  It's been actively and consistently pointed out to me over the past few years that my conservative opinions aren't welcome in liberal enclaves, so they don't get my "give a shiite either".  Thank God for Federalism!  haha.

I feel like they made themselves easy targets (in the similar vein of not policing crime, not incarcerating prisoners, giving away boxes of hypodermic needles but not allowing straws, allowing rampant homelessness, etc.) with onerous laws against the little guy, but you appear to feel like they were unfairly victimized.  Fine.  Maybe you're right.  I'd argue that they have a highly manipulated rental market and "free market" arguments are null and void.  You'd disagree.  Again, maybe you're right.  I'm just beyond thankful that I don't have to care!  haha. 

Why aren't you passing along your $ to your kids? That's cold! haha. Mine are working through hs/college with the expectation that they pay for their own education, cars, homes, etc. but they're going to get what I don't spend (and the government doesn't "fairly redistribute" for me). 

Have you ever seen this documentary about Seattle?  Depressing stuff, but our corner of the Central Valley is looking like it more and more every day.  :(  I've just gotta figure out a way to get my kids to move to the same state so that I can leave the valley before it looks like this!

@Carlos Ptriawan

" Well well well
philosopically speaking , the entire real estate in America IS Bullsht industry anyway
Just think about it , In 10 years I acquire one million dollar without adding any more of labour productivity , suddenly it appreciate so much because the Fed has money to be printed ..now when that printer is turned off , people in BP is screaming lol
I guess we are all lucky in that aspect as we understand this BS game of america real estate industry , we gained because we understand how to play it well, with the tenant paying the cost."

I've been trying to explain this to my coworkers, but have had very limited success.  A couple of thoughts that I'm uncomfortable with, but have been trying to become more okay with:

1.  I am sad that my grandparents got ahead by working hard and saving, but I got ahead by borrowing.  It feels wrong, but...

2.  I used to feel bad for those renters that you're referring to, but they keep voting for it over and over and over again.  I explained to my students how giving money to everyone hurts those at the bottom the most.  We all get money, prices for everything inflate, then the money runs out, but the prices never come back down.  Renters keep paying higher rents and owners siphon that excess money into their pockets.  Won't stop the next handout though...

@Carlos Ptriawan

Haha.  Gotcha and makes sense. 

Kn fairness, my 80-90k number includes the 20% down (70k) and fees (5-7k) leaving around 3-15k for the light renovation.  I'm not looking at an 80-90k renovation, just some paint, tile, maybe a new shower stall, vanity, etc.  We don't do high end flips.  We do blue collar LTRs, so our budgets for renovations aren't like full gut jobs or anything.  I leave that kind of stuff to other people.  If you're saying that you do your renovations for less than that, you definitely have me beat!  haha.

@Carlos Ptriawan

Ok, so you're saying that it's a good time to buy, but that you don't expect prices to get back to where they were a few months ago until late '25/early '26.  A couple of questions:

1.  Wouldn't I make easier money buying mutual funds/stocks?

2.  Or do you feel like real estate would be a better investment for you since you appear to be in the Bay Area and that market seems to have dropped more than others.  So, obviously with real estate being regional, are there specific markets that you're focusing on?

In the end, putting 20% down on a 350k property, plus fees, plus light renovation that always seems necessary (around 80-90k total) in the central valley and waiting for it get me 40k in equity a few years (that would be EXTREMELY difficult and expensive to access assuming it did happen) sounds pretty risky to me as I'd probably be cashflow negative that entire time.

Sorry, I just feel like I'm having a little trouble following your logic and timeline on still wanting to purchase over just putting money into the market since it seems like it's already dropped so much...

Thanks!

@Carlos Ptriawan

There's been a lot said on these threads that I agree with and some that I disagree with.  I must say that my overwhelming takeaway from this thread is your thoughts, such as:

"In the long term, real estate appreciation is equal to Money supply growth which is typicaly growing between 5-8% year.

Why we have 2020 crazy real estate appreciation is because we have abnormal 40% money supply growth.

In 2022, the money supply growth is negative 1 percent , as result real estate growth is flat or stagnant.

Moving forward especially by 2024 we have slow modest growth thus slower home price appreciation.

If one wanna do flip in CA one should do it when Fed is flattening the
rate or reducing the rate. This is the easiest window timeframe to make
money."

It makes total sense to me as it seems pretty intuitive, it's something that I never would've conceptualized on my own without you pointing it out, and it's something that I definitely plan to keep my eye on in the future.  Thank you for the insight!