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All Forum Posts by: Collin Hays

Collin Hays has started 119 posts and replied 2499 times.

Post: Gatlinburg | Sevierville | Any help appreciated!

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Andy Kessler:

As a DYIer, Agree that is the best way to go when you have a mentor, do your homework and have time to be addressing guest questions, tweaking rates, updating your spreadsheets, paying your various bills, etc...

We have this time and we look at this as a part time job for my stay at home wife. For the return you get, it’s definitely worth it in my opinion. Also I enjoy us being a part of someone Smoky Mountains experience. 

I’ve said when we don’t have time to do it right, that’s when I’d turn it over to someone else or potentially sell my properties. 

Find a mentor who knows the area, self manages and can spend some time talking about what you should expect on return. You really can’t rely on those estimates. If anything, I have seen the estimates fall way short of actuals. I would not do that deal of 589k for 60k. If that is a pool cabin, that estimate is low.  

You are the ideal self manager.  You understand it will effectively be a part time job.  

Post: Gatlinburg | Sevierville | Any help appreciated!

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Andy Kessler:

As a DYIer, Agree that is the best way to go when you have a mentor, do your homework and have time to be addressing guest questions, tweaking rates, updating your spreadsheets, paying your various bills, etc...

We have this time and we look at this as a part time job for my stay at home wife. For the return you get, it’s definitely worth it in my opinion. Also I enjoy us being a part of someone Smoky Mountains experience. 

I’ve said when we don’t have time to do it right, that’s when I’d turn it over to someone else or potentially sell my properties. 

Find a mentor who knows the area, self manages and can spend some time talking about what you should expect on return. You really can’t rely on those estimates. If anything, I have seen the estimates fall way short of actuals. I would not do that deal of 589k for 60k. If that is a pool cabin, that estimate is low.  

You are the ideal self manager.  You understand it will effectively be a part time job.  

Post: At what point does Gatlinburg reach peak?

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532

“Reasonable” and “insane market” are two highly subjective terms.

I own a 2 bedroom cabin in Gatlinburg that produces $70K a year in rents.  At what price is it “reasonable” for me to give up that income?   $600K?  $700? 800? 900? $1 million?


No, no, no, no, and no.  

Post: Just outside of Gatlinburg, Sevierville, and Pigeon Forge

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Mike S:

I was just going to post this same question. Was looking in the GB/PF area and everything is crazy expensive to the point that the mortgage would eat half of the gross rents. Cosby looked like a much better alternative.

 I think Cosby has the potential to explode in price appreciation, but that is a longer-term play.  The prices are definitely going up in Cosby, too, but the P/E ratios seem to make better sense in a lot of cases (though not always!).  Certain vacationers like Cosby.  It is away from all of the hustle, and you have the Cosby entrance to the National Park, which is quite private and quiet, as compared to say the Gatlinburg entrance which can feel like downtown Chicago.  

We bought our first cabin in Cosby, a 2400 square foot really nice place, in 2005.  We used to rent it 100-120 nights a year, and now it's more like 280-300.  So the area has long-since been discovered by vacationers.

I have mixed feelings about Cosby being discovered - I am a fly fisherman and many times, I've been able to fly fish Cosby Creek in the National Park and never even see another fisherman.  I don't venture over toward the Gatlinburg waters because the Cosby waters are plenty good and NO CROWDS.  

Post: At what point does Gatlinburg reach peak?

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Luke Carl:

@Mike S

You can't make money in STR if you're paying a manager.

Take off the management fee and raise your occupancy to 320 days per year then calculate.

 I have a few dozen homeowner clients who would disagree with you on this.  That is obviously your opinion, but as a wise fellow once said, "many roads lead to Rome."  

Post: Best ways to break even or profit on short term rentals (STR)?

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Justin Anderson:

@Eric Baron The play there was to buy for appreciation and make money that way.  Up until this past year, CO massively outperformed Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg on that front.

You can pick one usually -- cash flow or appreciation.  For cash flow LTR you'd have to go to semi-scary places like Detroit or Baltimore.  Appreciation would be SF/NY/Miami.

 Funny you mention that.  Even with all of the activity and price escalation in the Gatlinburg market, they'd have to double or even triple again to approach the prices you see in the Colorado mountain towns.  Gatlinburg is still very much a bargain in many ways.

Post: Gatlinburg | Sevierville | Any help appreciated!

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Justin Anderson:

@Collin Hays is spot on here...  You need to figure out what your numbers work for you and see if you can find a deal in that price range.  If you self-manage well vs use a property manager, that saves you 20 or 30% right off the top.  

I would NEVER trust the numbers from existing owners as being what you'd get. They're probably selling because they don't know how to manage their listing well and aren't getting a good enough return. A good STR manager will keep occupancy at 90% and be constantly tweaking rates to max out earnings. Just imagine a bell curve of earnings and where the buyer and the seller are likely to be. I'd expect a seller to likely be on the left side of the curve and an active manager to be on the right side of the curve. That difference is probably another 20 or 30% to your bottom line as well.

Also, be careful of Airdna.  It said my 1BR cabin should make 35k when it made 60k.  And my 7BR should make 120k when it made 210k.  (Numbers are from memory, but it's in the right ballpark)

Agreed, except for the 20-30% savings "right off the top" for self managing.  We just took on a self-managing client, an attorney who lives in Cleveland, on January 1. His cabin near Gatlinburg did $19,000 last year.  He was really concerned about "giving up" 25 percent, even though he admitted that he was spending more time on the property than he wanted.  I told him I'd give him a free, six month test drive with us to see how it went.  

We've already got $26,000 in bookings for 2021 for that cabin, and it's not even March. 

So how much was he really saving by self-managing? 

Penny wise, pound foolish.  Pay good people to do their job, and you do yours.  You'll make more money in the end.

Post: Gatlinburg | Sevierville | Any help appreciated!

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532
Originally posted by @Elan Kvitko:

Hey BP Community,

I'm new here and just starting out. Been looking into a few areas and can't decide on anything yet. AirDNA is telling me one thing but my gut tells me another. 

From my research, Gatlinburg and Sevierville do pretty well in STR's. I want to invest into a property buy AirDna is telling me I can make 60k a year gross on a property that's listed on zillow for 589k. To me that seems pretty bad yet AirDna says they're A+ areas to invest into. I'm so confused. I think the smokey mountains are beautiful and I'm sure people go year round. If anyone could help me understand the market there better, it would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks in advance! 

Everyone's idea of "good" and "pretty bad" is different.  I just saw a 840 square foot house (not even a cabin) near downtown Gatlinburg listed for $445K and was under contract in 48 hours.  It produced in the low $40s last year.  Is that a good deal?  Wouldn't be for me.   But the cabin is right on the river, and they aren't making any more rivers.  

So it was a good deal to someone!  Hope they do well with it!

The key is, figure out what is "good" for YOU.  Then find that, and don't buy until you find it, Gatlinburg or anywhere else.  

Post: Just outside of Gatlinburg, Sevierville, and Pigeon Forge

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532

There was a time when central Florida wasn’t much to look at, either...

Post: Just outside of Gatlinburg, Sevierville, and Pigeon Forge

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,535
  • Votes 3,532

 Shhh!!! Don’t tell anyone!  😂