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All Forum Posts by: Eric James

Eric James has started 22 posts and replied 2236 times.

Post: Is real estate appreciation a myth? Adjusting for inflation

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
Quote from @Eric James:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:

37% of the inflation index is a housing component, and the largest component of the index.  So essentially rising real eatate prices are the definition of inflation.

Real estate isn't purchased at a steady position however. It is typically purchased at a leveraged position. So of you are at a 4-1 leveraged position (20% down, 80% LTV), then you out perform inflation by a factor of 4, before even counting in rent or debt pay down. If you bought in at 3% down, you are at a 33.33-1 leveraged position and you beat inflation by a factor of 33.33 times...or a return of 3,333% per year versus inflation.

 That's correct. Except you're not including the cost of the financing. For example, if you're paying 5% interest on the financing. You're gain from leverage is only the difference between financing costs and the increased real estate value.


 That's only if the place is vacant. Most of us here have the tenants pay the debt.


 You have pointed out possible benefits of using leverage and renting out an asset, both of which are not specific to real eatate.  These possible benefits are separate from whether real estate itself appreciates at a higher rate than inflation. 

Post: Is real estate appreciation a myth? Adjusting for inflation

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515
Quote from @Kenneth Rolfe:
Quote from @Eric James:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:

37% of the inflation index is a housing component, and the largest component of the index.  So essentially rising real eatate prices are the definition of inflation.

Real estate isn't purchased at a steady position however. It is typically purchased at a leveraged position. So of you are at a 4-1 leveraged position (20% down, 80% LTV), then you out perform inflation by a factor of 4, before even counting in rent or debt pay down. If you bought in at 3% down, you are at a 33.33-1 leveraged position and you beat inflation by a factor of 33.33 times...or a return of 3,333% per year versus inflation.


 That's correct. Except you're not including the cost of the financing. For example, if you're paying 5% interest on the financing. You're gain from leverage is only the difference between financing costs and inflation.

As long as you’re cash flow positive, the financing component should be offset.  This could be applicable to your primary residence though, but then you could argue the need to compare those expenses to what your expenses would be if you didn’t own the property… which again would likely offset the financing cost.

 Yes, specifically with rental real estate your tenants will (hopefully) pay all costs associated with the property.  But that isn't a characteristic of real estate in general. As you say, for those not renting out their real estate the financing costs reduce profit from increased value. 

Property taxes can also be a high expense in some places. I knew a woman who sold her primary residence in NYS for $50k higher than her original purchase. When I pointed out she had paid  $5k/year in property taxes each year, her reply was "I don't want to think about that."

Post: Is real estate appreciation a myth? Adjusting for inflation

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515
Quote from @Taylor L.:

There are two types of appreciation in real estate: market appreciation and forced appreciation. Market appreciation is out of our control, and is the type of appreciation you're referring to here. Market appreciation is nice to have, but since it's largely out of our control we can't put too much emphasis on it.

Real estate's advantage over Wall Street is that we have the ability to force appreciation of our properties. We can buy properties that are underperforming, fix them up, and sell for a higher value later. Only billionaire activist investors can do that on Wall Street, and even then they're rolling the dice (cough, Elon, cough). 


 Yes, that can be done with real estate. That's what makes real estate investing worthwhile to me. But that is also essentially what someone is doing when they buy any underperforming business (of any size) and increase the profitability. 

Post: Is real estate appreciation a myth? Adjusting for inflation

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515
Quote from @Russell Brazil:

37% of the inflation index is a housing component, and the largest component of the index.  So essentially rising real eatate prices are the definition of inflation.

Real estate isn't purchased at a steady position however. It is typically purchased at a leveraged position. So of you are at a 4-1 leveraged position (20% down, 80% LTV), then you out perform inflation by a factor of 4, before even counting in rent or debt pay down. If you bought in at 3% down, you are at a 33.33-1 leveraged position and you beat inflation by a factor of 33.33 times...or a return of 3,333% per year versus inflation.

 That's correct. Except you're not including the cost of the financing. For example, if you're paying 5% interest on the financing. You're gain from leverage is only the difference between financing costs and the increased real estate value.

Post: Is real estate appreciation a myth? Adjusting for inflation

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515

One stated benefit of investing in real estate is price appreciation.  However, if you look at inflation adjusted real estate prices for the most part there isn't much appreciation.  There are specific points in time like 2006 (we know what followed that) and right now when real estate exceeds inflation adjusted prices. However,  over the long term it doesn't really appear that real estate appreciates much beyond inflation. Is real estate appreciation a myth?

https://www.supermoney.com/inf...

Quote from @Joe S.:
Quote from @Eric James:

If you're in San Antonio I live about a 4 hour drive from where you are.. I have a crew of guys that I used for renovations on BRRRs and now new construction.  I pay less skilled guys $20-22/hour and more skilled $25-27. I have one guy who is a foreman or sorts, but I need to supervise them myself as well. We were able to build new construction for $35/square foot in labor cost. I don't know if you consider that reasonable or not, but it works for me.

 How often do you show up to check on them? 

I read a lot of your post. Whenever you’re through again I’d like to meet if your open to meeting. Will have steak on me if you have time. If you’re pushed for time there’s a pretty big Chinese Buffet with lots of options. :-)

I'm on site about 20 hours a week and I also take care of getting all materials they need.

Sure, let's get together sometime.  I'll be taking the family down to the Riverwalk sometime this summer. We could get together then if you like.

If you're in San Antonio I live about a 4 hour drive from where you are.. I have a crew of guys that I used for renovations on BRRRs and now new construction.  I pay less skilled guys $20-22/hour and more skilled $25-27. I have one guy who is a foreman or sorts, but I need to supervise them myself as well. We were able to build new construction for $35/square foot in labor cost. I don't know if you consider that reasonable or not, but it works for me.

Post: Looking at the Market very tempted

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515

Take a couple years to seriously learn about real estate. By then you'll know which way inflation and interest rates are headed and whether you should buy or not.

Post: Was the Sellers Agent Ethical or not?

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515

Only possible ethical issue I see (if you have not mistakenly described the situation) is if the listing realtor refused to provide information to their client.

Post: The morality of short term rentals

Eric JamesPosted
  • Investor
  • Malakoff, TX
  • Posts 2,281
  • Votes 2,515

The idea that because some people don't like something (STRs) that makes it "immoral" is modern snowflake morality. City planning isn't an issue of morality.