All Forum Posts by: Helen Zhang

@Tom Ott , I honesty don't know if you read my thread. There is nothing I said conflicting to what you are saying (except that I do not judge on investment strategies). What I am saying that it is NORMAL for Amazon to have a fulfillment center as it exists in every big city/metro, and Cleveland is not special or anything for having a fulfillment center. 

I said where Amazon had fulfillment center is always near blue-collar and cheap land. This can be a good thing or bad thing to investors and it depends on what kinda investor you are. Some investors are simply looking for appreciations only, and that would not be their interest. I am not going to judge regardless how people are going to invest/speculate. I am just stating the fact that having an Amazon fulfillment center is not the same as having an Amazon Headquarter.  

There is a fundamental difference between "A city wants to compete" vs "A city is qualified to compete". The news article that you have showed is an article that describe that Cleveland wants to compete. Here is information from Amazon with qualified cities: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/07/here-are-the-citie...

Now I am going to express my opinion of Cleveland that is completely irrelevant to Amazon topic (yes now I am actually judging). Imo I think even the blue collars have a great opportunity of buying a house by themselves. If they are not buying, they are likely just bad at managing finances. Dealing with tenants with bad finances is difficult. As an investor, if all the money that I am pouring into Cleveland is just to make money out of the tenants who are capable of making money but bad with personal finances, is it still worth it? 

The best type of tenants that I like are in the following situation:

1. Have a stable job, possibly smart with their finances

2. The job that they have will never provide enough for them to save enough for a down payment.

3. Section 8 tenants who have government to pay for them

They will be long-term tenants, and they will never have a problem paying rent. 

I don't expect myself to get the same type of tenants in Cleveland. So the type of Cleveland tenant that I am expecting would be:

1. Have a job

2. Bad with personal finances, always on paycheck to paycheck

3. Not going to pay until you knock on their doors

4. You will have to send them 3-day move out notices once a while. 

Shrug. With all that said, I am still interested in Cleveland. 

I intentionally ignoring all posts about Amazon fulfillment center (except protests related things which shows Cleveland culture) in Cleveland. Imo, having a fulfillment center nearby is not a great thing for investors. It just means the local residential are blue collar and the land is cheap. No Amazon fulfillment center will be set up in an expensive land. The only benefit that Cleveland got out of Amazon is some blue collar jobs and fast Amazon shipment. I can't seem to understand why everyone is so excited that Amazon "invested" in Cleveland. If you are a city with a population of 400k and not having an Amazon fulfillment center within 100 miles, then you are in a weird city. Now if Amazon got Cleveland as 2HQ, that would be a different story. But unfortunately, Cleveland is not qualified to compete. 

Although Amazon is not a pro, I am still interested. 

@Peter Tindall good point on the census. I will keep that in mind. 

@Eric Delcol lol 

@Nicole S. I am on the same boat as you are as I have just started on doint research on nearby cities such as detroit, cleveland, chicago and Columbus. My choices are leaning toward cleveland and chicago. All my properties are appreciating asset and rentals, I am seeking for more of rental income ratio at the moment. Columbus might end up like my other properties. Don't get me wrong, they are still great rentals with good margins but the margins is just not as great as pure rental gold mine.

I am looking forward to take a Chicago/Cleveland trip sometimes next year Jan/Feb. If you are also interested, maybe we can team up and go for a road trip together =)

@Tom Ott , I might have misunderstandings. Is Columbus annexation changes every year? (I'm not convinced that it is as this is not how Census data is calculated). I believe the same region that was considered as Columbus 20 years ago is the same Columbus today. If this is not true, please correct me. 

It does not matter if Columbus annexation happens to be a bigger region than Cleveland. I am not looking for the overall population. I am only looking at growth/decline. 

@Tom Ott , due to the population scale, my first graph does not show all the surrounding suburbs very well. I have a second graph on the first page of the thread that shows all surrounding neighborhoods. Most of those burbs are also flat-lining or trending down. 

I wasn't intended to compare to Columbus, but when the population decreases in Cleveland, you will see a spike of Columbus increase in population. I think that is funny. It is rare to see a city increase in population while the economy is going down. I'm less concerned about what they want to consider "greater Cleveland area". How ever they want to do their population is up to Census. But when census data shows that these population is declining and still is declining would bring serious worries to investors. 

@Rob Gillespie , this is very helpful. Thank you for sharing. Very clever on option #5. May I ask what is your rental volume? Do you have better returns in burbs or inner city? 

@Brian Ploszay , thanks for the heads up. That's interesting, I didn't know Cleveland actually still have a decent amount of manufacturing companies. Although I am not convinced that jobs are the only source that caused the population to decline. You have a point that Cleveland manufacture companies still have not fully died all these years. I've always thought that was long gone. 

@Bob Collett I just looked up Cleveland's water rates, first 1.5k gallon is $19.25. Following with each 7.5k gallon is $33 which is equivalent as $4.4 per 1k gallon which is just about the same as any other city that I have lived in. Is there any reason why you believe that water rates are too high? is the income relatively too low? or is Cleveland average household using a lot of water for a specific purpose that I am not aware of? 

@Andrea Hauserman , the cities that I have listed are not just for California, and I don't live in California. I can't seems to understand how is illegal immigrants actually involved with population counting.  Illegal immigrants do not count toward population nor employment rate. Am I missing something?

@Bob Collett , that's a lot of reasons. Thank you for providing it. Allow me to have a better understanding, are you stating that Cleveland actually have a lot of high tech jobs but unable to attract talents? I have always believed that it was the opposite. (I believe Andrea also believe that it was because opportunities are not offered in Cleveland). Can you tell me more or link me a post about people protesting Amazon's main contract not going to a minority contractor? (Not going to a minority contractor as not accepting bids from minorities? or refuse to even allow minorities to bid?) The fresh water is questionable, and this has always been a very questionable thing about Cleveland as I am trying to learn. I believe the lake is very badly polluted. Correct me if I have the wrong impression of the lake/river. 

@Steve B. I have not heard about Lindbergh baby, but I just looked up. It looks like some real old historical event that people who are born after 1980s would not even know. 

@Nina Ibrahimbegovic , google is your best friend =) 

@Andrea Hauserman , it is great to get a local perspective. 

It make total sense that job is the reason, and there should be a strong correlation between jobs and population.

Here is some interesting data:

1. Cleveland unemployment rate: 7.2%, and population decline 2.8%

2. Fresno's unemployment rate: 9.5%, and population increased 5.2%

3. Yuma's unemployment rate: 8.5%, and population increased 3.3%

Even higher unemployment rate cities have population increase, so exactly what is wrong with Cleveland that causes population decline?