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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 8 posts and replied 3607 times.

Post: 2% rule, 50% rule and CapRate

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

1. To value NOI's of commercial buildings when the Rents are long term and some are above market and some are below market. If all rents were market like residential then you could use direct sales comparison method to value them.

2. & 3. Cap rates are not a profit metric. If you divide YOUR NOI by YOUR offer price you may be the worst buyer ever and overpay. If you KNOW what cap rate other properties were bought at then you know if you buy at a lower cap rate you probably PAID too much.

3.  If you are in the market you should have an idea of what market expenses are.  If you don't have experience you are at the mercy of the brokers, sellers, etc.

4.  Operating expenses are somewhat asset specific.. Basically you'll have taxes, insurance, maintenance and repairs, mgt., utilities, accounting, legal etc.

5. & 6.  Experience.  The price to rent ratio (2%) will fluctuate some with the market but generally stays pretty constant except in volatile markets.  I've pretty much bought in .7% PTR ratio markets so if a property/market is less than that I can assume the market is overheated since it stabilizes at .7% over 40+ years.

But YOU should be more concerned with the rent increases and appreciation.  What good is a 2% PTR ratio if there are not rent increases or appreciation.  In my .7% RTP appreciation is pretty predictable so every time I get $100,000 increase in property value I can count on a $700 rent increase.  See how .7% blows the doors off 2% ?

Post: 2% rule, 50% rule and CapRate

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698
Originally posted by @Kyle Ott:

I am new to Bigger Pockets and have been doing a lot of research for the last few months.  I am starting to analyze deals (which maybe aren't really deals!).  I am interested in multifamily units as they seem to me to reduce the risk of not covering the mortgage and increase the cashflow.  There are a couple in my area asking around 70K for a duplex.  According to the listing, they are getting around $1250/month for the two units (my research confirms this should be pretty accurate).  If I apply the 2% rule then I shouldn't pay more than $62,500 for the property.  If I then apply the 50% rule, I should be cashflowing around $335 an month.  Seems like a pretty good deal considering everyone says to try for $100/door.  As I was continuing my research, I ran across cap rate.  So I broke it down beyond the 50% rule.  Taxes - 80/month, ins 42/month (estimate), mortgage 335/month, 10% vacancy 125/month, 10% property manag 125/month and 15% repairs 187/month.  Totaling $894.  1250 - 894 = 356.  356 x 12 = 4272

4272/62500 = 6.8% 

The deal suddenly doesn't seem so good.  What am I missing?  Am I on the right track?  

For the record, I plan to do my own property management so I will increase my income on the property, but it still doesn't bump up my cap rate that significantly. 

Thanks in advance for the help!! 

Kyle

1.  duplexes are not valued by cap rates.

2. Dividing your NOI by a possible/actual sales price means NOTHING

3. You have to have actual operating expenses to get NOI. You cannot take a percentage of gross rents and come up with NOI.

4.  You can't "pick and choose"  what operating expenses to use to calculate a cap rate.

5.  2% rule only works in 2% markets. 

6.  If your market is less, say a 1.5% rule that usually means the market thinks that area is more profitable and will pay more for the property.

Post: Questions regarding small apt building analysis

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

There are not multiple cap rates.  There is only market cap rates.  That is calculated on closed sales of similar properties.  Your PGI would be at market rents and your expenses should be market.

If the property is not operating at market then you would calculate value as I outlined below in another thread, Also reserves are not an operating expense and is not a part of NOI.

Nope. it will ONLY change the value NOT the cap rate. Two exact same buildings have the POTENTIAL to gross $100,000 rents. Bob is a smart investor and operates to market and has a NOI of $60,000. Similar properties have sold at a 8% cap rate so if Bob sells he can expect to get about $750,000. Frank is lazy and stupid and his building is half empty and he is paying his brother in law too much for janitorial, repairs and maintenance and his NOI is only $20,000. At an 8% cap rate a novice seller would think his property is only valued at $250,000! Numbers don't lie. But Bob knows it will cost him about $100,000 to get the property up and running just like his identical property. Fire the BiL pay some leasing fees and a little maintenance. Now counting on the lost rents until he gets the property up and running he will only be out about $150,000. So Bob has a property capable of generating $60,000 NOI. At market cap rate of 8% the property is worth $750,000. But it will cost about $150,000 of elbow grease to get there. So Bob would buy the property at a 8% cap MINUS the costs to get there $150,000. So he pays $600,000. See? the cap rate is the same, the value changed.

Post: Multi-Family Purchase checklist

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

Negativity?  You mean your -$50,000?  Who are you helping?  

I just demonstrated mathematically how your suggestion would lose money. What part do you think is way off?  I'll be happy to walk you through it so you will learn what you are doing wrong.

Post: Tenant is interested in purchasing my house

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

Real estate agents sell property. Appraisers do appraisals. A real estate agent can do a CMA But it is not an appraisal.

Post: Purchase Cap Rate vs. Pro Forma Cap Rate

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

The $8,000 Is not part of NOI. It would be a below the line adjustment that would lower the purchase but have no effect on the cap rate.

Post: Chicago cashflow investments. Seeking shark agent south Chicago

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698

waitaminnit.  X = ?

Post: Chicago cashflow investments. Seeking shark agent south Chicago

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698
Originally posted by @Frank S.:

@Account Closed,  

The elbow grease means due diligence and forced appreciation.  Yes, it changes the cap rate. E.g., buy a distressed property, for sale by owner, or use forced appreciation. Any and all of those will increase your return  by lowering your acquisition cost (property asset value).

I ignore what you may have in mind. I can't read your mind. 

Nope. it will ONLY change the value NOT the cap rate. Two exact same buildings have the POTENTIAL to gross $100,000 rents. Bob is a smart investor and operates to market and has a NOI of $60,000. Similar properties have sold at a 8% cap rate so if Bob sells he can expect to get about $750,000. Frank is lazy and stupid and his building is half empty and he is paying his brother in law too much for janitorial, repairs and maintenance and his NOI is only $20,000. At an 8% cap rate a novice seller would think his property is only valued at $250,000! Numbers don't lie. But Bob knows it will cost him about $100,000 to get the property up and running just like his identical property. Fire the BiL pay some leasing fees and a little maintenance. Now counting on the lost rents until he gets the property up and running he will only be out about $150,000. So Bob has a property capable of generating $60,000 NOI. At market cap rate of 8% the property is worth $750,000. But it will cost about $150,000 of elbow grease to get there. So Bob would buy the property at a 8% cap MINUS the costs to get there $150,000. So he pays $600,000. See? the cap rate is the same, the value changed.

NOW if you want to argue that the property was only worth $250,000 have at it!

Post: Chicago cashflow investments. Seeking shark agent south Chicago

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698
Originally posted by @Frank S.:

@Account Closed, Chicago is a city of neighborhoods, each is very unique with different demographics. A two flat in the north side may go for $550,000 with $6,500 in taxes, while on the south you can pick it up for $50,000 and $1,800 in taxes. 

OK sure.  But that has nothing to do with cap rate and elbow grease.

Post: Chicago cashflow investments. Seeking shark agent south Chicago

Account ClosedPosted
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
  • Posts 3,894
  • Votes 1,698
Originally posted by @Frank S.:

The north side cap 4s and 6s, with negative returns in some cases, are for amortization, not cash flow.

South, may have cap 8s, even 15s if you do some elbow grease. Little cash flow and  more trouble. 

Elbow grease does not change cap rates. Cap rate values the NOI.