I'm going to respond about a looming bust and unsustainable growth in San Francisco.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-22/ny...
SF to New York is a common comparison, and while it isn't exact, it sheds a lot of light on what is possible in the future. The population of New York is about 8.5 million, and San Francisco's is about 850k, which is literally one tenth. NYC according to the census is 305 sq miles, and SF is 49 sq miles. I would expect the population density to equal before any large market "bust" occurs, and that means an extra 10k people in SF per square mile, or 490k total, or an extra half of the entire population. Where will all of that housing come from? My answer: the surrounding bay area in combination with new development. I know it's difficult to see for many who don't live here, but for those that do, take a look as all of the 2 and 3 story small to mid-size buildings are acquired by national developers and torn down for 10-12 story luxury condo complexes. Look at the Lumina building, retailing condos at $3k per square foot in many of the units. The city just increased the height limit of buildings for a reason.
In addition, I think it's a mistake to only look at San Francisco and the Bay Area/Silicon Valley down south (if you are one of the people who separate them) as a region solely in Northern California, or California, or the West Coast, or the United States for that matter. We're at a level today, with globalization as it is, that SF is considered one of the luxury real estate capitals of the world, but it is so much cheaper, still than so many other of the luxury cities in the international marketplace. I don't need to post links to articles talking about how expensive Paris, London, Shanghai, and Hong Kong are. Look at how many buyers are coming from back East right now. This is cheap real estate compared to those luxury markets! Do I think the level of growth we are seeing can be expected to continue infinitely? No. Do I think there is a lot of growth left to be had based on the international market? Of course.
Even further, according to a report from the SF Association of Realtors, 73.7% of residents have white collar jobs, 81.1% have attended at lease some college (with 36.8% Bachelor's degrees and 23.1% graduate degrees), average household income $105k, average household net worth $1.08 million and all of that with a median home sales price of $724k. How many other cities have those demographics with more company founders and executives moving in every day? Those people have to live somewhere... and I don't know many millionaire households that prefer renting to owning... http://www.sfrealtors.com/US/Neighborhood/CA/San-F...
I could go on and on... How many other cities in the world right now are in practically every other movie hitting the theaters? Supply drives demand and vice versa. Demand is way up and supply is down, hence a rise in prices. I don't see demand slowing down quickly any time soon, so I don't see the reason for the fuss about an ominous drop in prices.
I'm not trying to hijack the thread, but I for one see a lot of upside left in this market, and I plan to stick around for it, despite the naysayers.
Welcome to the site! Lots to learn for everybody!
