Originally posted by @John Casmon:
Sam Stout here's my take....Chicago is 234 square miles and honestly it's two different cities. You have the Northside and then you have the South and West sides. The North side is dense and when counting the downtown area you see strong demand, increasing rents and corporations moving to the area (McDonalds, Caterpillar, Dyson, etc). This will attract and retain millennials, but the schools and the continued CPS issues won't keep them in the city. I'd imagine, once these people have school aged children they'll make a choice on the suburbs and a commute or the city and private school. Keep in mind that millennials are marrying much later and having kids much later which is why they're currently choosing city living over suburban life, but the schools are critical of they're going to stay.
I happen to live in what has consistently been ranked as the best neighborhood school in the city and the impact it's had on housing value is astonishing.
New construction in the core of the city is almost exclusively focused on Class A luxury units. This will have an impact on neighborhoods that might otherwise be able to attract this resident base.
For the South and West side, the density has been dropping off as there is a lot more vacant buildings in certain areas. I'd expect to see continued population declines as there simply aren't enough jobs to keep people there. Residents are moving to the suburbs, but also down to Atlanta and other markets for a better quality of life. I don't see that changing much.
With that noted, there are South and West side neighborhoods that are doing extremely well, but we're talking in broad strokes. The Obama Library has generated a ton of excitement, with home values already going up from the announced development. Hyde Park is my favorite neighborhood in the entire city...and it ain't cheap. Ultimately as Mark Ainley said, it comes down to your plan and what you're seeking.
Also, people are seeking value with rent prices taking up so much of one's paycheck, so I'd imagine gentrification will continue to happen. Neighborhoods like Pilsen, Humboldt Park and others have already seen this take place.
Great post. I agree with most of this, but I disagree with millennials not staying in Chicago once they have kids. There are some amazing schools in CPS, there are some terrible schools in CPS, and there are schools everywhere in between(just like there are neighborhoods). Schools are very often a reflection of their local socio-economic status. A class property areas are going to have A class schools, etc. Schools also tend to gentrify as neighborhoods do.
I think what is more likely from millennials with children is that they'll sacrifice to live in the neighborhood boundaries of the Bell, Burley, Coonley, Blaine, Lincoln, Audubon, Agassiz, etc. If this means living with their kid(s) in a 3 bedroom condo/apartment instead of a single-family home(the American dream of previous generations, but IMO, not of the millennials), many will make that sacrifice.
