Quote from @Jason Kudo:
Quote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
Quote from Melanie P.
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
Thank you Melanie! I appreciate your reply. Yes I think the project I want to create is definitely a longer term project. I guess my question would relate to the wisdom of pulling the trigger now and paying more for a property that could well be purchased for significantly less in another 3-6 months or maybe even longer if the down trend is expected to last a few years. I can still build equity in my primary home in the meantime.
Hi Joanna, realtor here that does a lot of business in the Southern California High Desert.
The reality is that homes appreciated very quickly in the High Desert and we are still, for the most part, in a correction. A lot of buyers in the past couple years purchased with the intent to rent their homes on a short-term basis (Airbnb) which caused prices to shoot up and for one reason or another, a lot of these buyers are deciding to cash out which is creating a large inventory of homes in residential neighborhoods and putting downside pressure on home prices.
We are definitely seeing home prices in residential neighborhoods coming down a lot and with the high level of inventory, there seems to be more room to come down.
Home prices on acreage in the more affluent parts of Joshua Tree and Yucca Valley (south of the 62 Highway) are slower to come down. I think mostly due to unrealistic sellers holding onto the home values of a couple years ago. We are still seeing many of these homes being listed for 100%+ over what they purchased a couple years ago.
As a buyer, the positive is that the good majority of leveraged Airbnb investors have moved on from Joshua Tree leaving mostly cash buyers and if buying now, you should have a lot of leverage to negotiate with since the competition has thinned out.
Mortgage interest rates move with the Fed and the general consensus is that there will be possibly only one rate cut this year in Q3 or Q4 with no more cuts until next year. With lower mortgage interest rates comes increased competition so the sweet spot may be sometime towards the end of this year.
That said, if you see a property you like, the best advise is to shoot your shot and submit an offer that makes sense to you and if they bite, you win and if they don't, you didn't lose.
Thank you so much Jason! This makes a lot of sense to me and gives me more confidence as to seeing a path to move forward with. Later this year sounds like a good plan.
I recently saw a handful of properties in all different conditions that were all north of 62. My realtor didn't give me a sense of what the "better" or "safer" areas or more affluent areas of JT are and I don't know where to look for that kind of information. She never mentioned flood zones either and I now know that that can be an issue.
I did realize that I am not as comfortable with long stretches of unpaved road. I would like a property that is on or just off of a paved road. I am fine with a short drive on dirt but not for too long a stretch. :-) If there are any sites you recommend to do more research I'd really appreciate if you could share that.
I am also thinking I might need to check with San Bernardino about zoning though I was told that they can sometimes be a bit more lenient than other parts of CA? I know here in San Diego I had to have permits just to put air conditioning into my house. Thank you again for your advice!
