All Forum Posts by: Jimmy Oldrich

I'm a landlord, too. The fact is the vacancy, and possible court costs for what may be an uncollectable judgement, is usually tougher than an adjustment sting. I have in mind here a situation where rents are out of whack with the market or the tenant circumstances change.

Agreed the documentation would be a challenge, and agreed the loan situation has a different recourse.

We are though seeing a bunch of loan mods in the tough markets.

I just stumbled on this thread and took a look at your website, JS. Very good stuff.

Right. I am kind of interested in whether it's possible to trade as it trends down. But if the spreads are tough, they're tough.

National mortgage data is showing double foreclosures trending up. I don't know whether that's a cured foreclosure going back into process or a previously sold foreclosure going back into process.

Either way, it's interesting.

And an apology. The Moody's data I was looking at earlier was for Denver (doh!). Vegas' high-tier is the over 181,636 bucket. It dropped about 5% YOY as of December. This tracks with depreciation in the other tiers.

The 50% figure in the article was January. I guess there's some chance for more retail buying as the spring comes along, but I understand the concern.

I am with you on the buy and holders possibly being early. Unemployment is crazy in Vegas. I wouldn't bet on stable rents in the short term either.

The data from Moody's/Case-Schiller suggests not all tiers are depreciating as rapidly in Vegas. The high tier (over $320,232) looks almost stable. It is out of the meat of the market activity, of course.

Is there foreclosure activity in that tier? The larger amounts of cash involved may discourage cash buyers, and it is likely to be a longer turnaround on your money. But the net per deal may be better.

I can't find anything that lays out REOs by pricing...

Mostly agree. But none of those things is the same as a large dollar business deal (multi-year technology outsourcing for a bank), where the reality was the outsourcer got burned by the terms over time, complained, and was accommodated with a term change. In the name of keeping the deal together rather than unwinding. Both entities were pretty capitalist, in my view.

I have a lease with my landlord. I went through a tough medical situation. She reduced the rent until I was back on my feet. She has made it clear she keeps the lease for paperwork reasons and that she won't hold me to it if my circumstances change. This is in very businesslike New York.

Compare that with my experience with the standard Texas lease (many years ago). Accelerated payments if you leave, blah blah. Hardball scare tactics.

But there are plenty of capitalists, large and small, who do things differently.

Any enterprise of size has multiple projects with different ROI and risk profiles.

The right way to think about Gates is not Windows, then the rest. It is "sell traffic light control software to government," "buy an operating system and resell it to IBM," etc. Two very different strategies, one for short-term funds and one that created a franchise

I absolutely believe Gates was an amateur when he did this :).

Those that have made the choice between funding deals as an HML, equity partner, or private lender, how did you choose your entry point? Are the risk profiles or recourses different for each? What happens if a deal goes sideways--costs go over or takes too long--in each case? I'm brand new, and I'd love to get some feedback from the veterans.