Originally posted by @Mark Scott:
If the value of the dollar (or any currency) devalues (or gets devalued) compared to another currency (and there are many reasons why a currency devaluation could occur -- internal fiscal crisis, external market forces etc.), there might be pressure for real estate prices to escalate.
Why?
During a currency (dollar) devaluation, there are two factors that come to mind that would drive real estate prices up. One has to do with dollars outside the United States coming back to the United States, and the other has to do with another currency that decides to go bargain shopping.
Let's say you are Japanese, and you have both dollars that you earned in a foreign investment, and yen available to also make an investment. You want the best rate of return on your currency, and you find that the local market doesn't provide you a good rate of return. Your dollars start to devalue, meaning that they will buy fewer yen. A weaker currency (dollar) is one you want to unload, and you can do so by either exchanging them for yen or buying something denominated in dollars.
There is no doubt that if devaluation is an ongoing process you'll need to dump the dollars, as any investment whose face value in dollars, such as bonds, will continue to lose its value and offset any gains that might be had from the interest coupon. So an investment whose value is determined by ongoing auction, such as stocks or real estate, makes a good vehicle for your devaluing currency so long as there are market forces to drive the price up. For now think of investing dollars instead of exchanging dollars as a gamble -- the first factor.
The second factor is that when a nation's currency becomes worth less, the value of the goods and services of that nation start becoming a lot cheaper to a foreign buyer. This is why it is good for that nation's exports, because exported goods become less expensive relative to the same goods on the global economy denominated in a stronger currency. This is not only true of exported goods but also of any assets you as a foreigner are allowed to purchase inside that currency's country. Real estate is an odd one in that many countries do not allow direct foreign investment, but the United States does allow it.
So with the first factor, those dollars held by a Japanese person are trying to find a home in real estate, so it begins the bidding up process. And with real estate become cheaper from the perspective of the purchasing power of yen, it would make sense from the second factor perspective to exchange yen for dollars and then use those dollars to also buy real estate. So long as the real estate appreciates as fast or faster as the dollar devalues, the yen investor will break even on their yen investment. And as long as the rents increase in line with an underlying property appreciation caused by the effect of more dollars entering the real estate market, then increased cash flow will offset the loss in value of that cash flow being denominated in dollars.
Many foreign investors will just use the intrinsic value of the property rather than try to play the exchange rate game. So with the Japanese investor, assuming would want to live anywhere in the world, it might make more sense to have a penthouse apartment in Manhattan over one in Tokyo, or to have a vacation home on US lakefront property over a villa in Italy.
So while the exchange rate differentials may cause an increase price pressure on real estate in general, not all markets may necessarily be affected. Just as US exported goods become cheaper, foreign goods become more expensive. So an American who is used to cheap Chinese imported goods with a strong dollar will find that their trip to Walmart becomes much more expensive. If their budget is strained by buying imported goods (and for now assume oil is also priced as an imported good) they will have less money to afford on housing. So real estate that is of interest to an American but not to a foreign investor may find its value decrease, not increase during devaluation.
With as many dollars as the US has overseas, if the the real estate market were perfectly efficient, then perhaps all real estate prices would increase as those dollars try to find a home back in the US. But since it is not, you are likely to see the most desirable properties become the most inflated, and the least desirable properties breaking even on value or possibly even deflate.
Scott