All Forum Posts by: Kenny Hsu

Thanks, everyone.  I appreciate the idea of "trust the numbers".  One area I'm trying to stay discipline is assumptions in my model on rent increase and appreciation.  I at least run a couple of scenarios to make sure if things do go bad, there's a sufficient margin of safety.

Unfortunately, it is creating situations where I'm can't justify matching or beating competing bids - which is probably a good thing but still frustrating.  

I guess bottom line is, look harder for better deals :) 

Someone asked about delinquency rate source - these are national numbers but I did also look at some local market numbers and they mostly follow the same trend:

https://www.housingwire.com/ar...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/0...

So I understand Seattle is landlord "unfriendly" - how are the surrounding cities in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties?  

If you had the capital, would you wait for the correction or still invest now?

I understand local markets will drive the ultimate decision, but it feels like every market I look:

1) unemployment is through the roof in the last 4 months

2) mortgage delinquency is on the rise

3) rents are flat - but there have been many stories about landlords not being able to collect rent

4) housing values have not dropped yet and cap rates are still at all time highs.

I remember hearing about folks that made at killing buying during 09-11. I wonder if I shld just wait.

Thoughts?

Late to the party here.  I work full-time at a tech company where we are all working remotely and invest in RE on the side.  I didn't go through the entire thread, so hopefully, these points haven't been made yet:

1) I think what COVID has done is shown both employers and employees work from home is practical for a good portion of the workforce (e.g., white-collar jobs).  CFOs will love not having to pay for real estate for every employee, and employees will love the flexibility and no commute time.  As someone said, I think COVID may have accelerated things by a good number of years.

2) Consequently, I do think some people that would've moved to big cities like NY and SF may stay put, or people currently living those cities will think about moving.  

3) Having said all that, big cities will be big cities... they will all evolve and adapt in ways none of us can know yet... So long term I'm still bullish on NY/SF and other iconic cities.

4) More importantly, ss RE investors we have to think about how it will impact our particular tenant segment.  Young professionals with jobs where they could work from home will need bigger spaces.  People who live in 2 bedrooms may start looking for 3 bedrooms for a home office.

For what it's worth, I own two condo units in NYC, and both sets of tenants left to go back to their home country after COVID hit...  it's taken a bit more incentives, but there are still people looking for a place to live out there :) 

Good luck everyone!

Kenny

This is a fascinating topic thanks!! I'm personally shifting from my condos in NYC (no cash flow, all appreciation) and going to cash flowing MF properties. I don't want to exit the market since I sure can't time the down cycle (though I can feel it coming) but it feels to make like if you can cash flow with a healthy margin of safety you'll be ok. I find myself using DSCR much more in evaluating deals...

@Jonatan Barbera Jonatan, what are you seeing on MF returns in San Antonio?

@Courtney Cain What kinds of MF properties are you looking at purchasing?  I'm focusing there too and perhaps we can compare notes!

Hey good luck Bryan Carter !! Great to have fellow multifamily investors on BP. Feel free to reach out if you ever want to talk!

In the beginning process of sourcing multifamily deals in San Antonio - about 20-50 units B-C class with a value play. I'm out of state so I'd love to connect with folks who have been in the game and compare notes. Have been reading and studying a ton on the market and wanna see if my market outlook matches what folks see on the ground. Look forward to chatting!!

Thanks for sharing!!! Doesn't seem like the ruling did much though...

Interesting. Thanks everyone!!