All Forum Posts by: Kyle Smith

 I don’t know.  All I know is, I went land prospecting and there were a lot of empty cabins up on Chalet and several other areas.  

I stayed at one of the newer hotels in Gatlinburg last night and there were only six people there, including myself.   I also drove around chalet Village and I would say 60 to 70% of the cabins did not have cars parked in front of them.  

Big view lots are still selling for $250k and up.  Some of them are gone in less than 24hrs. After calculating income for a new build plus cost of land, even with agressive nightly rates, it just doesn’t add up.  I’m seeing some lots selling up to $380k (this was off Campbell Lead Road) but it still shocks me.  

Do you guys think the lower occupancies and rates we are experiencing this year is due to economy or it’s the new normal?

Interesting take here and your assumption may be correct.  I’d like to get with the county appraiser and see what the real counts are to give us a true picture.  It’s been about a year since I had the latest stats. 

I’d like to throw this out there and get everyone’s thoughts on this.  So, at this time I’m unsure if we have 100% fully recovered from the fires as far as cabin counts go.   Once we recover, which it appears we will this year in my opinion, how many additional cabins and hotels will be built?   How many more vacationers can Gatlinburg and PF expect?   What is its capacity to grow?   I see possible growth toward the 407 and what’s going on there.  But, baring some Disney type of big attraction coming to the area, I think it’s safe to say 2019 visitor counts, plus say maybe an additional 20% due to awareness of the area post COVID, is all we can expect.  My reasoning is telling me we may never see anything outside 2019 visitor counts ever again in our lifetime unless recreational and attraction growth increases.  
Inflation is already built into the new rates per night and we will continue to see rates drop.  The current cabin prices are inflated obviously but I’m thinking we will see a huge drop in cabin prices to match the new norm which is actually the old norm.  New hotels are going up left and right and cabins are still being built.  I feel we’ve overshot the 2019 norms and are heading into over saturation.   Right now, builders are coming to me trying to help me find land, etc.  Some of the great legends in the area are getting super nervous.  One of them was a year lead time to start, now he has two houses he’s finishing up with zero houses behind it to start on.  It’s going to be an interesting 2024-2025.  I think we are going to see a great shutdown of investor interest in the area.  I think this market will sit idle and be on a lifeline for the next 3-5 years IMO.  

 There are about 10,000-11,000 cabins in Sevier county that all look the same.   Maybe 5% look different or have something unique or different.  Those things are crucial to riding out a ression IMO.  I would rather fight for position amongst the 5% vs the 95%.  

Thanks for all the great responses.  Well, I have about $180k in cash and I’ve been trying to buy a big view lot.  I’ve missed a few opportunities due to “paralysis by analysis” but I’m still looking.  My 3 bed pool cabin is  doing pretty well, although my rates have dropped 20% or more since March.   Someone mentioned we are at 2016 occupancies.  I was think we were closer to 2019 occupancies but I wasn’t in the business back then.  Are we seeing 2016 numbers right now?   If the economy doesn’t turn around, I would imagine things will get worse with rising saturation in this market.  
However, maybe all of my bad luck finding decent land under $300k may be a sign (Note, nice plots of land with big views near PF/Gat are selling for $250k and they are under contract in a matter of hours).  I’m unsure who’s buying these big view lots but I can tell you they are getting scarce.   How can you make the math work spending $250k for the land?  I’ve been looking for land around the $150k mark for 9 months and have come up empty handed.  I’ve been under contract probably 5 times now, and every lot I get under contract on has some sort of issue.  Maybe I should take the hint and take my money elsewhere.