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All Forum Posts by: Leo R.

Leo R. has started 16 posts and replied 584 times.

@Dalton Thornsberry  yep--I also ran models with cash-out refis, and ran into the same problem...we're stuck between a rock (high rates) and a hard place (high prices) at the moment, and because of that, I think a lot of folks are struggling to figure out their next move.

The good news is: having low interest debt locked in during an inflationary surge is a good position! (You're paying the bank back with dollars that are of less value than the ones you borrowed from them; it's like borrowing gold and paying the lender back with gravel...maybe not that extreme, but you get the point).

I think the plan of sitting tight and re-visiting the market in 6-12 months could work, but it could also backfire if property values don't go down significantly in 6-12 months....if prices hold steady, and rates increase even more (which seems likely), we could be in an even tougher position in 6-12 months (but, that's pure speculation...at the end of the day, nobody knows what will happen, and it's totally possible that prices are lower in 6-12 months...we're already seeing a notable uptick in days on market and price reductions, and a noticeable decrease of demand in many markets--but who knows how far that will go).

Strange days, indeed.

Good luck out there!

@Dalton Thornsberry based on your research, how much of your money would you need to spend to acquire these hypothetical MF properties, and how much would those hypothetical MF properties net per month?  ...those numbers are key if you want to find an answer to your question...

I'm in a similar situation, and most of the models I've run don't make sense for me (mainly because the properties I own are all locked in at around 3-3.5%, but the hypothetical new properties would be at around 6%, which typically kills the deal)...but, your mileage may vary...

Good luck out there!

Post: Am I absolutely crazy here? (hint: probably.)

Leo R.Posted
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@Rick Petersen the thing that jumps out to me about your post is not the numbers, but the fact that you said you're new, and this deal is multiple MFs with 40+ units over multiple towns...that's certainly jumping in at the deep end.  

I'm not saying that it can't be done, but I am saying that a portfolio like that is a challenge to buy and manage even for a person with extensive experience buying and managing MFs...

I don't believe you mentioned anything about property management (so for all I know, perhaps you have extensive experience with PM), but to buy and successfully manage a portfolio the size of what you're describing, you'll need a small army of professionals (i.e.; agent, broker, property managers, carpenters, roofers, electricians, plumbers, groundskeepers, and a CPA proficient in MF real estate...and those are just the folks I can think of off the top of my head!).  Do you have that team in-place?

As for your actual question, 40+ units is a LOT of work for $2,700 / month cashflow (as @Bruce Woodruff mentioned)...you said that your goal is more free time for your family, etc.  --if that's your goal, I'd say that this deal will move you in the opposite direction of that goal. Even if these are A class properties with competent personnel, 40+ units in multiple towns will take a lot of your time...which could be fine, if you're netting significant money per month, but this deal doesn't provide that....  

In terms of the numbers, I'd say that $2,700/month cashflow is waaayyyy too thin of a margin for a portfolio this size--I personally wouldn't feel comfortable with that much risk, that much work, and that little cashflow. For perspective, one of my friends has a modest portfolio of 3 single family homes and 1 duplex, and he nets approximately $4k/month--that is a much more reasonable risk/work/cashflow ratio.  

Also, you mentioned future appreciation and rent increases...if your plan hinges on future appreciation or future rent increases, you're not investing, you're speculating. Sure, there's good reason to believe that we'll see appreciation, but there are also well-evidenced arguments that we won't see appreciation (or that we may even see a downturn). At the end of the day, nobody knows what will occur in the future, and because nobody knows, your financial models need to be able to withstand worst-case scenarios (for instance, market downturns, significant vacancy, huge capex, significant wage increases for personnel, tenant lawsuits, etc.)...and $2,700/month cashflow isn't close to being enough to offset the work and the risk of 40+ units...

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the good news is: there are always other deals to be found, and there are always other opportunities for success in RE (if you put in the work).

Good luck out there!

Quote from @Scott Trench:
Quote from @Leo R.:

@Scott Trench  I may be mis-understanding, but I was wondering if you could clarify a couple things...

In 1), you say that we're nearing all-time real wage highs (adjusted for inflation), but in 6) you say that the real federal minimum wage is nearing historical lows   ...Isn't that contradictory? How do you square the idea that we're at all time wage highs, yet the federal minimum wage is nearing historical lows? ...I suppose that theoretically, the median wage could be near an all time high while the minimum wage is near an all time low, but it seems contradictory...

Also, I'd be interested to hear how you reconcile the idea that we're at all time wage highs, yet (as others have pointed out), for the average American, it seems much more difficult to make ends meet compared to a generation or two ago... As was mentioned, a generation or two ago, Americans could afford to buy a nice house, have two cars, support multiple children, have minimal or no debt, and adequate reserves for a comfortable retirement--all with nothing more than a high school diploma...today, we have folks with advanced degrees, no kids, no house, tons of debt, who live paycheck to paycheck.  ...this dynamic seems to support the idea that costs of living have far outpaced Americans' earnings over the last couple generations.... I'd be interested to hear your thoughts...

Thanks!

 1) Great question! 

Imagine that there were no minimum wage at all. In today's economy, how much would McDonald's be hiring entry level employees at? It's tempting to think "$1.00 an hour", but that would not be the case. I drive by a local McDonalds that is advertising $18 per hour for entry level positions. 

That's because no one is willing to work for minimum wage. This is true in many places around the US. For the minimum wage to have any impact on what McDonald's pays it's workers, it would have to be $18.50 per hour. 

Effectively, we don't really have a meaningful minimum wage right now - because there are so few people who are willing to work for $7.25 an hour, even entry level positions, like flipping burgers at McDonalds have to pay much, much more than that. Now, there are people who argue whether there should be a minimum wage or not, but the current economic climate appears to be a vote in favor of eliminating the minimum wage or keeping it at it's current level. Most who want a job are able to get one, and at least where I live and drive to, it appears, that they can do so at double the current Federal Minimum wage, easily.

I predict that one impact of this will be that a lot more high schoolers and teenagers are employed in coming years - as they are the ones who are likely to be hired at or near the minimum wage. This could be very good for our economy long-term.

So, with the current minimum wage is nearing an all time low - the effect is similar to not having a minimum wage at all. And we are able to see that the minimum wage, when it is very low or nonexistent, may be disconnected with median wages - they are going up, even as the minimum wage does not change. 

2) Personally, I am a little skeptical of this claim that life was better a generation ago. That's how people feel, but the data doesn't seem to back that up. Here's a great study that in my opinion debunks the claim that the 1980s were better than today. It's not ALL better today, but I think that the data make an overwhelmingly strong case that it is much, much better to be alive and American in 2022 than it was in the 1980s across a broad range of important quantifiable items.

I think that it always seems like the old days were better. Houses are much bigger today. Cars much more reliable, get better gas mileage. We have things like the internet, personal computers, smartphones. Healthy food is easier to come by and more Americans are eating it. The same goods you bought in 1980, with the notable exceptions of tuition and healthcare, are cheaper today, adjusted for inflation and wages. Housing costs have essentially not changed - per the study I sent above. Relatively speaking, travel is much easier and more affordable (as evidenced that more people travel now).

I think that things are more unequal (although inequality is at the very beginning stages of starting to correct in this past 6 month period) today than they were a generation ago. Perhaps this is why so many people feel that the old days were better.

A great book on this topic is "Factfulness" - most people think that the world is getting worse and worse with each passing year and through the generations. The reverse is true. People are generally richer, living longer, there are fewer deaths for children, and there are fewer disasters. The media, however, is more centralized, and more efficient than ever at finding the problems in society, highlighting them, and doing so in a way that drives engagement. People click on disaster, so the news reports it. 

Case in point, Violent crime has dropped by nearly 50% on a per capita basis over the last 35 years and it bounces around at this new, historical low, up and down slightly each year. It's hard to find a time when you have been safer as an American than over the past 5 years. Yet, if you get your news from mainstream media like Fox, CNN, the NY Times, or the WSJ, you'd think we are falling off a cliff! That gets headlines, but the real story is one of prosperity, improving quality of life, and falling crime rates. 

No, this is not true for everyone. No this doesn't mean that we don't have our problems we have to fix. But, the story is that the economy continues to improve for the median American.

Thanks @Scott Trench for this substantive response--I appreciate the thought and level of detail you provided, and this does help clarify the topic for me.  I'll check out the book you mentioned!  

Steven Pinker (a well known and highly respected cognitive psychologist) talks and writes about how--by many objective measures--life is much better for most people today than in previous generations. Dr. Pinker's message definitely aligns with what you described regarding the "then vs. now" debate...as Billy Joel sang: "the good old days weren't always good!"   :)

Cheers!

Post: New Construction VS Older properties for the beginner.

Leo R.Posted
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Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Leo R.:

@Bruce Woodruff  thanks...I've also been very skeptical about the longevity of pex (though I have it in most properties)...I haven't had any disasters with it yet, but I find it hard to believe it will have the longevity of copper....time will tell!


If it gets moved in the wall (let's say water hammer) it can fail....Also, it gets eaten by rodents that can sense (smell?) the water inside.....ask me how I know.... :-(


That's a great point about water hammer (I wasn't aware of it, but it makes sense...learn something new everyday).  Fortunately, I don't have any water hammer issues (and the one place that had them I put in a hammer arrestor that seemed to fix the problem).  That's also very useful info about the rodents--one more reason to take preventative measures.

I was thinking of it from the perspective of how materials break down (especially with heat/cold cycles)--typically, rubber and plastic type materials break down faster in a car's engine bay than the metal materials, for instance...which makes me think pex would break down (become brittle) faster than copper....but, I'm no engineer, so who knows...

Post: New Construction VS Older properties for the beginner.

Leo R.Posted
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@Bruce Woodruff  thanks...I've also been very skeptical about the longevity of pex (though I have it in most properties)...I haven't had any disasters with it yet, but I find it hard to believe it will have the longevity of copper....time will tell!

Post: New Construction VS Older properties for the beginner.

Leo R.Posted
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@Gilda L. Sauceda  yes--it was a very stressful experience, and one of my worst experiences in real estate to date. However, I learned a lot, and today, that very same property is my best cashflower (and, we haven't experienced any more flooding, even after having our city's rainiest spring on record a couple years ago)... Things will go wrong in real estate; some folks wash out when they do, and other people grit their teeth and work through the problem--and become stronger and more experienced as a result.  

As for your agent--unless they have some skill set that you think is incredibly unique and valuable, I might suggest looking for a different agent with more experience. There are a lot of agents out there who have little or no experience assessing a property, rehabbing a property or managing a property--and if you want to accurately assess a property, rehab a property and/or manage one, then you should find an agent with that experience.

When my agent and I are shopping, we are the first line of defense in the due diligence process.  Your due diligence process should begin the moment you and your agent set eyes on the property.  You should not wait until the inspection to begin the due diligence process, and you should not assume that your inspector will identify all problems (because they often don't). There have been many instances where my agent or I spotted issues that were deal breakers the first day we saw the property--and these were issues that an inspector may or may not have flagged. This is why it's critical that you and your agent know how to spot problems the moment you see the house (unfortunately, there are plenty of agents who don't have this expertise).  An agent or mentor who does have that expertiseis invaluable. ...Even then, it's not always possible to spot important problems (as was demonstrated with my flood house), but that's just the nature of the beast....

Unfortunately, the primary goal for an agent is to close the deal, and therefore the incentive for most agents is to not help you identify problems that could prevent you from closing the deal. 

I knew that my agent was A+ the first time we looked at properties because we walked a beautiful property that I was in love with, and wanted to buy (at the time, I had little experience). My agent could have easily said "OK, let's buy it!" and he would have made his commission that day. Instead, he said: "Look; the plumbing here has at most 5 years left. The basement is newly finished. When that plumbing bites the dust, that basement will need to be mostly demolished to replace the plumbing. Total to demo the basement, replace plumbing, and re-finish the basement will be in the neighborhood of $50k--and that's an expense that is virtually guaranteed within 5 years. I suggest we look for a different property".    ...he went out of his way and lost himself time (and a commission) to help me avoid a big mistake (and at that time, I was just an inexperienced kid who he had no prior relationship with). He had big incentives to not educate me on the problem, and his only incentive to educate me on it was that it was the right thing to do--that's when I realized he had my back.  He also had the experience to spot the problem (he has rehabbed and managed many of his own properties, and he does 85% of the maintenance work himself--including carpentry, plumbing, etc.)...that's the type of agent and mentorship you need on your team if you're going to succeed in real estate--and the sooner you find that type of mentorship, the better!

Good luck out there!

Post: New Construction VS Older properties for the beginner.

Leo R.Posted
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@Gilda L. Sauceda  the common perception that a new property will always have less headaches than an older property is NOT always correct.  I have experience with both older and newer properties; including early 1900s, 1960s, and 2000s. One of my newest properties has presented the most problems BY FAR.

Why? A new property is un-tested, and as the new owner, YOU will be the "guinea pig" dealing with the "growing pains" that may come with a new property. On the other hand, an older property--if it has been properly maintained--has already gone through those "growing pains", and someone else has dealt with those issues (again, assuming it has been well maintained). With an older property, if the previous owners have NOT dealt with the issues, then those issues are often readily visible (for instance, if the house had structural issues that were not resolved, the sagging will often be visible on a 50+ year old house, but may not be visible on a 10 year old house).

Here's a real-life example: I bought a new property; a very nice and spacious place with cathedral ceilings and some nice amenities. Tenants moved in and are loving the place until about a month into it when the finished basement floods.  There were bedrooms in the finished basement that the tenants needed to use, so the tenants were displaced and had to find new housing (and I lost all the rent income). The reason for the flooding? The slab had been poured on bare dirt instead of gravel (major code violation), and the slab was poured too low to the water table--so, when it rained, the water table would rise, and water would leak into the basement from underneath the slab. So, now I've gone from a cashflowing property to a property that's costing me a mortgage payment every month and needs over $50k of work (the only way to fix the problem was to demo all of the flood damaged drywall, cabinetry, and  trim, jackhammer through the slab, excavate and remove over 5 truckloads of concrete and clay (by hand), install and plumb an industrial level sump and irrigation system, backfill it with rock (by hand), re-pour the slab, and re-finish everything.

How is this relevant to your question? Well, if that property had been, say, 20 or 30+ years old, other owners would have encountered the flooding problem--and would have either dealt with the problem, or the damage from the problem probably would have been readily apparent when I viewed the property. But, instead, it was a new house, and no flooding had occurred before I bought it--so I got to be the guinea pig and deal with it (lucky me!).  Buying a brand new house is a bit like buying car in its first year of production: you will be the guinea pig dealing with recalls, manufacturing defects, and unanticipated problems...whereas, if you buy a car that's been in production for 10 years, there's a better chance that the manufacturer has ironed out many of those problems ....or, that the problems have manifested and the car has a poor reputation for reliability--which steers you away (pun intended) from purchasing the car.

It's also somewhat common for older houses to be "rehabbed" by flippers who use shiny new materials to cover up or distract from serious underlying problems. For instance, I've seen many older homes that have beautifully newly-finished basements...but, get behind that new drywall, and there's old galvanized steel plumbing with maybe 3 years of service life left, outdated and dangerous knob & tube electrical, asbestos, structural integrity problems, or any number of other issues...the end result? You buy the house (at top dollar because it's been "rehabbed"), and within a few years, those problems manifest and have to be fixed, but now instead of just fixing the problem, you also have to demo your beautifully finished basement, and then re-finish it again after the problem is fixed.

Point being: don't assume that new, or newly rehabbed automatically equals lower cost of ownership (in some cases, it may mean much higher cost of ownership).

Having said all that, obviously older houses can come with all sorts of problems that newer properties don't (e.g.; asbestos, galvanized steel plumbing, archaic electrical systems, etc., etc.), and newer properties often have many significant advantages (and may indeed come with much lower ownership costs).  The point is not that older houses are always better, or that newer houses are always better, the point is: every house is different, and blindly saying "newer houses will cause you less headaches than older houses" is an overly simplistic perspective that often comes from a lack of experience with both types of houses.

The solution? Surround yourself with real experts who understand how to assess both new and old properties (do NOT rely purely on your inspector for this). Find an agent with extensive first-hand experience with carpentry, plumbing, etc., and who has extensive first-hand experience owning both newer and older properties. Pay a contractor to walk the property with you. Find a mentor with extensive experience with older and newer properties. You'll learn lessons from these people that can save you tens, on tens, on tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of dollars--not to mention a lot of stress and heartache.

It always makes me laugh that folks will spend significant time reading online reviews before choosing a restaurant for dinner, but they'll go out and buy a house (probably one of the most consequential decisions of their life) without spending any time to first find experienced professionals to guide them through the process and help them avoid painful mistakes  :)

Good luck out there!

Post: Buying from Sheriff sales

Leo R.Posted
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@Austin Ralls  --I should note that in my experience, meth contamination is surprisingly common--even for MLS listed B-class properties in decent neighborhoods. A fairly significant percentage of the properties I've had tested come back positive for meth contamination, and I would assume that it's even more common for sheriff sale properties.

Post: Buying from Sheriff sales

Leo R.Posted
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@Austin Ralls  --I would imagine that with sheriff sales, you'll encounter a lot of properties with meth contamination.  If this is a road you want to go down, you'll need to become familiar with meth testing, meth levels, and what the laws are regarding renting and selling properties that have various levels of meth contamination. You'll also need to educate yourself on the costs of meth remediation (I think it's pretty expensive), and factor "worst case scenario" remediation costs into your financial models.  You'll also want to check out whether the sherriff's department can give you any info about whether the property is contaminated before you buy...

At a broader level, I'm guessing that sheriff sale properties often have dodgy histories, and might be in bad neighborhoods (e.g.; was the property used as a trap house? was there a murder committed in the property? were any neighbors involved in illegal activity at the property before it was seized, and if so, are those neighbors still living nearby? what are the crime rates in the neighborhood?)  ...these are the types of questions you'll need to get very good at asking (and finding answers to) if you want to be successful with buying sheriff sale properties.

Good luck out there!