@David DachteraSurprising! Your ego has allowed you to totally miss the point. That point being successful people understand areas where they have and do not have an expertise. They rely on the council of experts in most areas and focus on their true areas of strength.
I am not an expert in the practice of selecting pms myself. Instead I have consulted pm and investor clients with 100s of units under management and decades of experience. Sharing what those experts have shared with me can be useful to people on this forum. I can help others by relaying what I have learned from others without pretending to be an expert in the area. It is important to me that I disclose I am relaying information to the best of my ability but others should not use my advise without consulting a true expert.
You post opinions as if they are facts in some attempt to appear more knowledgeable than you actually are without any real world experience. Arguing with people that have real world experience based on what you learned in a seminar from a local investment club provides no benefit to anyone and shows you care more about looking smart than being helpful.
Since I am not a pm screening expert I can not speak with absolute authority and say that I am right and you are wrong. Financial modeling is another story. I literally spent fives years working 90 hours a week modeling bond issues for large multi-use real estate developments that combined retail, mutli-family, assisted living, hotels and single family town homes. If I made a mistake it would have literally costs a developer $10s of millions of dollars. That being said I am 100% confident your analysis is incorrect. THis is not because your numbers are wrong but because your numbers only represent one small piece of the picture. I hope you will take the time to read this analysis and understand that financial models can be taken out of context as easily as statistics. Simply put if a 12 year old can recreate your model it is probably not a good model.
Real Financial Modeling Can Not Be Done by a 12 Year Old
You are correct that the HELOC method greatly reduces interest expense. You are also correct that a 12 year old could model the interest savings using this method. Your mistake comes from the faulty assumption that lower interest expense generates a more profitable investment. Your incorrect assumption is due to the fact that you have not properly accounted for the time value of money or the benefits of compound interest on excess cash flow. This is understandable since you are in fact not an investment professional.
I have gone ahead and put together a spreadsheet proving that when you earn a rate higher than your borrowing rate investment returns are higher when you delay principal payments due to the compounding of investment returns.
You will likely notice the fixed rate scenario has around $95,000 in interest payments while the HELOC method has around $44,000. Your short sited analysis stops there and assumes that lower interest expense translates into higher profits. As we will see this could not be rather from the truth.
The first scenario shows a $100,000 investment that returns 10% annually using a 30 yr fixed rate loan with a 5% interest rate. Total interest expense is approximately $95,000 through the life of the loan. Instead of using surplus cash flow to pay down the loan the surplus is reinvested at 10%. In Year one interest expense is $5,000 or 5% X $100,000 and investment earnings are $10,000 or 10% x $100,000. Subtracting the mortgage payment of $6,505 from $10,000 gives you surplus cash flow of $3,495. This $3,495 earns 10% the following year or $349.50 and increases year 2 cash flow to $3,844. This $3,844 earns 10% the following year of $384.40. Compounding returns increase cash flow every year through year 30 when investment of excess cash flow earns $51,000 or 5x more than the $10,000 annual cash flow from the investment itself. Using a discount rate of 5% the NPV of the investment is $178,000.
If the investment earns more than 5% those earnings pay the interest + additional principal and result in a net profit. If the investment earns less than 5% the earnings do not offset interest and you have a bad investment.
In the second scenario the $20,000 of the fixed rate principal is paid off using a HELOC and all excess cash flow from the 10% earnings goes toward paying down the HELOC. Once the HELOC is paid down another $20,000 is drawn from the HELOC and paid down using the excess cash flow. You are correct that this method greatly reduces interest expense and allows the loan to be paid off in 15 years. However, since all excess cash flow went toward paying down the loan there is no money to be reinvested at the 10% rate. In year 16 when the loan is fully paid off the cash flow from the investment produces a cash flow of $18,952 which is much greater than the $10,000 in scenario one. This is more than offset by the $11,104 in the earnings on the cumulative excess cash flow. Using the same 5% discount rate the NPV of scenario 2 is $71,000.
Why? Because A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Using cash flow to pay down principal reduces cash flow today in order to increase it in year 16. This is counter-intuitive to the way investing works. A dollar today is worth $1. Using a 5% discount rate a dollar in year 16 is worth 45.8 cents. Trading one for the other is a terrible investment strategy.
Finally nothing is more beneficial to creating a solid financial projection than certainty. A fixed rate mortgage eliminates all uncertainty from the borrowing side of the equation. Another financial crash could happen tomorrow and you borrowing cost will not be effected in the slightest and your loan will remain outstanding. A HELOC on the other hand is an adjustable rate instrument. The HELOC borrowing rate could increase 5% tomorrow. The loan could also be called by the bank at anytime creating a cash crunch and possible default situation.
Final Notes
My analysis shows annual payments instead of month for the sake of simplicity. Using monthly payments would only increase the cumulative effective of the earnings in scenario 1 further proving my point. If anyone would like to spend a few hours breaking out monthly payments be my guest.
It may not be realistic to assume that excess cash flow in scenario 1 can be immediately invested into another investment earning 10%. For this reason, i tested a 3% investment rate and the results were scenario 1 having a NPV 42% greater than scenario 2. Going one step further and assuming a 0% investment rate scenario 1 still has a 12% higher NPV.