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All Forum Posts by: Michael Kalis

Michael Kalis has started 2 posts and replied 44 times.

Post: Opendoor & Offerpad; What's Their Angle?

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

Hey @matt - Denver is one market I am unfamiliar with.  Although I do understand buying marketshare to a certain degree, the levels I have seen have been curious.

Post: Deal or no deal seems to good to be true

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

Sounds like a spiffy deal.  Do it.

Post: Trying to find cash buyers

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

Ill buy homes... Shoot me a note.

Doubt I'm the only one... But feel free to forward.  

Post: Opendoor & Offerpad; What's Their Angle?

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

I have a rather curious view of the ibuyer model.   I am often putting in offers on homes against zilow, offerpad or opendoor here at marketplace homes.  Sometimes I'm selling back to them.  My observations are that opendoor and Zillow are overly data driven and lack human logic and that can be exploited; 

1). The fee is not important, the fair market is.  Ibuyers can be tricked to over pay easily.  But it's in data,not negotiation.  The data can get us flippers big ibuyer profit.

2). These companies are often overpaying either on purpose or by accident.  Zillow just reported over $100k per home loss on flipped homes, wowza!  How's that data working for you?  

3). It is VERY easy to drive up your offers from ibuyers and I'll show you how.

Unlike traditional flippers that work to find what a seller needs, the new ibuyer model is based on offering what the buyer wants to pay (without discussion).  As the old saying goes, he who speaks first loses and there are some easy ways to beat the giants.

All the ibuyers use avm's.  Many are based off Zillow (but they don't admit it).  Zillow is certainly off Zillow.  Your zestimate will drive your offer at all these shops.

How do you drive up your zestimate?  I can add 20% to any zestimate in 60 days.

1). When we buy, we purchase above market and pay ourselves a commission back as the broker.  This moves the avm's up.  But our seller gets the same number.  Example - we close a $200k home at $240k with a $40k commission.  Since it's a cash deal, it's fine.  

2). If I sell to an ibuyer, I adjust all the Zillow data to reflect the remodel.  I also run the comps on zillow to compare to strong comps.  

3). Then I might list the home I just bought at $260k. Zillow will almost instantly bounce up the zestimate.  This started after a lawsuit where a seller blammed Zillow for a low zestimate for hurting his home value.  

4). Sometimes we buy multiple homes in a neighborhood using this method, essentially setting up an avm to fail and driving up 20% over value in a tiny submarket.

5) with in days of the listing, you have an avm at over 20% above fmv.  Then you call the ibuyers and you will chuckle at those data driven offers... Believe me.  Who cares if they want 10% at $260k when I'm $60k over fmv.... But they are 10% below the avm... Yep, win win!

If you think they have people reviewing offers you are wrong.  Zillow brags about 90,000 offers they put out.  At that volume, it's all avm driven.  I generally get offers in 30 minutes.  No one is thinking it through.  

Other areas an avm really wins and you will get a lot from an iBuyer;

1) the home is on a main road, but the other comps seem fine.  Avm doesn't pick up the road.

2). Interior colors outdated are not avm dependent. 

3). The most unupdated production home in a production neighborhood will get the same offer as the most upgraded. If your home is modest you can win.  If you are over upgraded, you won't get the most from whole seller. 

Lastly and most curious, I've bid against ibuyers for a $200k home and every company is putting in offers, then looked 4 homes over and saw a forclosure for $100k... And I'm the only one buying that.  Go figure.  

My hope is that other flippers take my suggestions and drive up your prices to ibuyers getting yourself a very nice win indeed.

Post: Is it safe to invest in Detroit???

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

@charlesoglesby - great thoughts.  Glad you are getting awesome numbers.  Yes... contractors in Detroit do and SHOULD charge a ton.  It's one thing to paint a house, it's another to paint a house while having to stop your car from being jacked and watching your supplies get stolen.  Job market is tight, paid fairly and consider if you would do the job prior to knocking down the price.  You are asking people to put their life on the line to remodel a home for you.  That's a little crazy when you think about it.   It really deserves some type of premium.   

Post: Castle property management closing down

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

Castle was a good group of people that did things right. The continuation or stop of a business is not a reflection on the people behind it. They are good people and will do great things. I say that as a competitor to Castle in property management, but someone that can respect and appreciate property managers that have a good heart working in a VERY tough city. We manage homes in dozens of states and I guarantee you that if you took half the heart of the good folks at Castle and put in any of the other towns, they would crush it. The challenges of Detroit are unique, real, heartbreaking, pocket-busting, exhausting, sad, scary, life-threatening, bureaucratic craziness filled with love hope and despair. 20% CAP rates are not free my friends. It's hard to not experience wear and tear in that market. What balls for a couple 20 somethings to move there to make a difference.

Post: Is it safe to invest in Detroit???

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

@wendypatton - great thoughts.  It is brutal to manage homes in the city, we work to avoid.  There are so many safer places to buy at good prices.  I strongly encourage out of state investors to look at the suburbs. 

Post: Is it safe to invest in Detroit???

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

I grew up in Plymouth, a suburb just west of Detroit.  I now have flipped hundreds of homes and happen to run a property management company that has over 3,000 rentals and 85 W-2 team members, many live in the city.  My little sister lived in Detroit for a long time.  I am a HUGE supporter of the revitalization efforts, but I have to share the real scoop.  I have nothing to gain to tell you to what I am going to say, so please take as my advice from the bottom of my heart to help you become successful.  Here are the details of Detroit proper and my HUGE recommendation to take a look at the VERY investable suburbs that also offer great yields and FAR less issues.  We have homes in St. Louis, Baltimore and the South Side of Chicago... but Detroit is different from them all.  

1)  Remodeled nice homes (that you will be all in around $40K to $50K) will have hundreds of people that want to rent for $800/mo to $900/mo.  This surprises most and this is where is seems great.  But it is actually not good.  As a manager, it is incredibly difficult to handle what will amount to 100 to 200 hundred calls in a couple days for a property while 90% will end in an unqualified tenant.   

2)  The police do not respond in Detroit.  Period.  Full Stop.  Let that sink in for a minute.  Your property manager is NOT the police.  Your appliances will be stolen in broad daylight.  Your tenant will want to break a lease because a neighbor was murdered (this happened to us 3 months ago).  Your tenant will have belongings stolen and it will break your heart because the police won't even show up.  As a manager, we will buy back the copper pipes from the people that stole them, because that is how it is.  Appliances, HVAC and copper are traded in alleys.  People will walk straight into your home and take everything and the police WILL NOT EVEN RESPOND TO THE CALL.  

3)  You will get a tenant and you will get them fast.  With our system, less then 2 weeks.  But set aside $5K a year to replace stolen items.  Some say 50% of rent is a reasonable reserve for repairs, in Detroit, it is probably closer to 70%.  

4)  Section 8 - Many like section 8.  the Detroit Housing Authority is special.  They simply don't respond.  Everyone is eventually made right over time, but I have had 2 to 4 months pass prior to getting the first payment.  They catch it up, but this wreaks havoc with cash flow if you have 10 units.   

5)  Water Authority - They refuse to turn water into anyone's name unless you show up in person (or have a lot of docs to let us do it).  Trust me, this is not a great place to go.  Chalk up a day of standing in line.  The amount of properties with outstanding water bills is shocking.  

6)  Taxes are Rediculous - Over 50% of ALL properties in Detroit are currently behind on taxes.  Think about that!  This is not the great recession, this is the great boom!  Detroit is 75 mills for investors making it the highest tax rate of any city in Michigan.  That works out to nearly 4% of the value of a home.  So a $50K home may be $2K a year in tax.  Imagine if you actually purchase a nice $200K home.... yep... could reach tax of over $8K/yr!  Wowza!!!  This, of course, leads to corruption and the non-payment issue and then the annual tax auctions where you can buy these lovely gems for $500.   But remember, there are hundreds of thousands of homes behind on taxes.  The numbers are off the charts.  

7)  Income tax - The city punishes those that liive in the city with a 1.25% income tax.  They then hit you with an additional $1.25% if you work there too.  This is a 2.5% tax that makes sure anyone with income will more often chose the subburbs.  (more on that in a second)

8)  87% of Detroit transactions closed cash in 2017.  For our California friends, this was not because of the huge level of assets in the city.  These deals are all of the out of state investors that purchase homes only to see all the issues above and bail out a  year or two later and pass on to the next out of state investor.  

9)  Schools- The schools are rated a 1.  A 1!   The only blessing is that Michigan has schools of choice to help kids that stuck here and they can use vouchers in Michigan to goto charter schools.  Outside of that, the public schools system is completely unproductive by any measure and ripe with corpution and fraud as many members of the school system have been sent to jail for issues with rigging bidding with vendors.  

10)  Crime - 43 murders per 100,000 in 2017.  This means that you 1/2,500 shot of being murdered in the city.  If you figure that everyone might know a couple hondred people, it is highly likely you or someone you know is murdered every year.  That is INSAIN.  

----------------------------------------------------------------

What I would HIGHLY recommend.

Consider the suburbs of Detroit!   The step up to cites that include Redford, Livonia, Warren, Ferndale and Westland are a completely different game from Detroit.  

At the time of this writing, homes can still be purchased in the $75K to $125K range in all of those areas and get well 10% to 12% CAP rates. Prices are rising so that won't last forever, but it is there.

Big difference - 

1) The police respond and are active in enforcing laws to protect your tenants and homes

2)  The schools are much better

3)  The crime is MUCH lower  

4)  You will be happier with your property manager

5)  The homes will actually sell to end buyers, not just out of state investors.

6)  People pay taxes and water bills in every city other then Detroit nearly all of the time

Can you make a HUGE return in Detroit!  HELL YEAH!!!  I have clients that do.  But if you are a newbie, if you have not bought over 100 homes in your career, if you are using a decent percent of your wealth to invest, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not choose this city as your tuition bill.  So many have paid the price prior, please learn from them.

From a Property Manager in Detroit that Loves the City but cares about investors mental stability.

Post: CONSIDERING ATLANTA MARKET

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

I can really appreciate what you are doing and I am impressed that you are pulling data and being throughtful.  I am going to offer a couple thoughts as someone who has bought sold or rented homes in 28 states.

1)  It is all about the 'deal' not the market.  Get a good price in a bad market, you will be ok.

2)  Do all markets and diversify.  Buy 1 home in each market you like.  With technology, platforum property managers like our team can handle multiple geographies.

3)  Get micro - you say N. Carolina is good.  Well... that is a broad market.  How about Charlotte?  Then how about narrowing to a suburb you like there.  

4)  just do it.  Planning can sometimes make us out think ourself.

5)  Do not follow the hurd when you invest.  Yes, Atlanta has many easy to find deals. But EVERYONE is there... what does that do for you?

Thanks for listening.  I wish you happy investing.

Post: CONSIDERING ATLANTA MARKET

Michael KalisPosted
  • Investor
  • Plymouth, Mi
  • Posts 48
  • Votes 70

I can really appreciate what you are doing and I am impressed that you are pulling data and being throughtful.  I am going to offer a couple thoughts as someone who has bought sold or rented homes in 28 states.

1)  It is all about the 'deal' not the market.  Get a good price in a bad market, you will be ok.

2)  Do all markets and diversify.  Buy 1 home in each market you like.  With technology, platforum property managers like our team can handle multiple geographies.

3)  Get micro - you say N. Carolina is good.  Well... that is a broad market.  How about Charlotte?  Then how about narrowing to a suburb you like there.  

4)  just do it.  Planning can sometimes make us out think ourself.

5)  Do not follow the hurd when you invest.  Yes, Atlanta has many easy to find deals. But EVERYONE is there... what does that do for you?

Thanks for listening.  I wish you happy investing.