All Forum Posts by: James Hamling

I thought it was an "Onion" headline, but it turns out that our Cheeto-in-Chief wants to send $5000 dollar Stimi-checks again, ie direct M2 inflation like he did in 2020, this time to every American "household", about 130 million of those. But now under the guise of "returning the waste and fraud to the American people." This would be about 650 Billion dollars one time so far.

This could certainly potentially worsen inflation again, remember he caused the recent 2021-22 inflation by printing 3.4 Trillion no one needed, followed by grandpa Biden adding his own 2.3 Trillion or so, though he may not remember doing it. If we get a second inflation bump now with a weakening Europe and Asia, he may just bring on the next recession, and that won't be good for CRE at all.

Last week's CPI print was awesome. It showed a headline core CPI of just 3.3%, but as we all know it's housing component is 36% of the number and it uses an antiquated sampling system of owner equivalent rents O.E.R., that is 1 year old data and bad data due to methodology. If you instead put in actual current Rent data, which is much lower, the core CPI is currently 2%, which is the putative FED ie New Zealand target. As future monthly CPI reports print, wall-street and the US treasury market will then trade on this, thus continuing the fall of the 10 year yield, likely to upper to mid 3s, lowering mortgage rates/cap rates. Now the guy who "knows the best words and went to the best schools" is threatening all the pain that we have endured from the FEDs Rate-pocalypse in 2022.

I'm still hoping mainstream media picked up the story from the "Onion" and it's not true. Didn't he and Herr Musk tell us we needed to decrease the debt and deficit? Maybe use that 650 Billion to pay down our credit card balance which is rising at 1 Trillion every 95 days and perhaps then the Bond market would take our own country seriously.

Maybe Trump and Biden and their rich friends actually want to subject our middle class to a permanent state of Penury, by engineering inflation at every chance?

I have mixed feelings on this.....part of my brain says to take that money and pay down the debt, that's what I would do if t were my household finances...but then, what a brillant political move to send everyone (well they're saying only taxpayers) a check for a few grand. If I were going to be really sneaky, I would give everyone a little something, imagine the goodwill that would spread.....

It's hilarious.

If Trump RETURNS our tax payment's that were recaptured for whatever BS spending attempts, he's a bad guy.

Yet if he did all this and DIDNT return it, he'd be labeled a thief and bad guy for keeping it.

COVID happens and world is in panic, shuttering the entire economy per the demand and directive of ALL in government especially the D's...... And Trump is a bad guy for the $ sent to help get people by. Yet Biden is a savior for doing the same thing......

Trump bad on deportations, Obama great for deportations.......

There is literally NOTHING Trump or Elon can do right, NOTHING.

Do these lunatics think we are blind to this BS setup? Do they really think us so dumb that we can't see what's right in front of our faces?

Find corruption and insane waste in Gov spending, now your a bad guy....

How did we get here?

How did we get to this point where people literally don't care what's done, however good or bad, that the ONLY thing that matters is what club there a member of?

This isn't division, it's derangement.

Picture a person in court for charges of murder and the jury says "yeah yeah yeah, evidence schmevidence, but who did he vote for?".

That's the exact insanity people are using now. W-T-F....

M 7:2-3, M 7:12

1. Nobody voted for Elon, so he has no business mucking around, period, especially in our private data, nor in government systems.

2. As for Trump wanting to give money back to the people, you will find that the people he wants to give the money to aren't the same as the ones who sent the money in. Trump's tax cuts -- which he wants to extend -- are heavily biased towards the top 1 percent. Then there's the small matter of deficits increasing under Trump more than they did under Biden.

3. Assume the spending cuts are made and money saved -- pay down the debt. Better yet, let the tax cuts expire and use the extra revenue to pay down the debt and build productive infrastructure. You will find that that was Biden's plan. Trump wants to crate the economy and direct money to the rich.

This whole propaganda of "Nobody voted for Elon" is just obnoxious at this point.

Did anybody vote for your mail carrier?

The President is the flipping PRESIDENT, as in head of the dang government. This nauseating concept that the President is just a figure head who's supposed to actively run nothing and EVERY federal manager or advisor requires a National vote is REDICULOUS.

And every American not infected with derangement syndrome acknowledges this and keeps shaking there head at the "Karens" and there fake freak-out on this demanding everyone join in there temper tantrums.

Do you not notice how the vast majority of the nation is NOT with you on your karen-campaign?

Do you not notice the vast majority of the country saying "give it a rest and let them do there dang jobs"?

This wasn't some post election day switcheroo, Trump literally PROMISED us, the American people this, EXACTLY this. For month's telling everyone, campaigning on it. And the people spoke! They voted FOR THIS.

So what your doing is literally yelling at people saying "OMG, aren't you MAD, there doing exactly what they said they'd do and what you asked them to do! HOW DARE THEM!"....

When you buy a plan ticket to Dallas, and land in, Dallas, do you get out and yell at them "How dare you take me to Dallas!"....

As for Biden's plan..... you are aware it was Biden who extended these tax cuts.

You need to step out your propaganda bubble my friend. Stop regurgitating what some talking head is telling you to think things are and instead read some actual facts of stuff.

And when you can show me $ actually being sent to a 1%er and nothing to the rest, then I'll listen to this BS broken record. This is the exact same BS propaganda that's been said literally Trumps entirety ever in office of "OH NO he's gonna....." and it NEVER happens. NEVER!

Gonna make WWIII with N.korea.... never happened.

Gonna make a great depression.... never happened.

On and on and on and on.......

Were not listening to the BS anymore. We fell for it and got a geriatric bumbling moron and his cackling parrot that literally f'd off while unknowns ran the place and sold we the people down the river.

Everything literally EVERYTHING was worse. Except for that 1%.......

"This whole propaganda of "Nobody voted for Elon" is just obnoxious at this point. Did anybody vote for your mail carrier?"

. . .

"And when you can show me $ actually being sent to a 1%er and nothing to the rest, then I'll listen to this BS broken record."

===========================================

My mail carrier had to go through a background check, pass a civil service exam, has limited duties, and isn't demanding access to complex computer systems that he doesn't understand and view sensitive, personal data.

BTW -- Biden didn't extend Trump's tax cuts.

Not even a nice try trying to move the goalposts -- Trump gave a pittance in tax cuts for the regular people, and the vast majority of the cuts went to the top 1 percent. -- Which is why you tried to change the goalposts.

Trickle down has never worked. Didn't work for Reagan, Didn't work for the Shrub. Didn't work for Trump even before Covid. Those cuts don't trickle down, and they don't pay for themselves.

The only one in a propaganda bubble is you, James. That's fine, but stop making stuff up and stop making false comparisons.

You can't seriously be that daft......

Elon Musk, founder of PAYPAL..... Dude, PAYPAL. P-A-Y-P-A-L..... Do I need to spell it out in crayola for you of what access he has forever had?

Not to mention SPACE-X.... Elon literally holds a Top Secret USG security clearance level. This is the guy the CIA calls when they need whatever sent into space.

But yeah, I'm sure you right that the guy who controlled PAYPAL and Space-X is not to be trusted with your address, because ya-know that's some super secret stuff nobody can get with a freakin google search......

So Biden didn't extend Trump I tax cuts..... What color is the sky in your world? Was Biden POTUS for 4 years? Are the Trump I tax cuts still in place? This isn't hard math here buddy....

If Johnny started with 1 apple, and still has 1 apples, how many apples did Johnny NOT eat?

"
So Biden didn't extend Trump I tax cuts..... What color is the sky in your world? Was Biden POTUS for 4 years? Are the Trump I tax cuts still in place? This isn't hard math here buddy...."
------------------------------
Trump's 2017 tax cuts were set to expire in 2025, the length of Biden's entire term.

Musk is accessing more than addresses, and you know it.

The sky here is blue. You need to learn how to read a calendar.

See this is the selective narrative that oh-so-many of us "normal" Americans are wide-awake noticing, and oh-so flippin exhausted of.

You have Bilbo-Biden so quick with the pen to erase Trump I this that n the other, cheering executive power the whole way and decrying how everything/anything Trump is so bad. You declare the Trump I tax cuts as "$ for the rich" bady-bad-evil.... well, what happened, was the pen out of ink?

Oh-no, narrative flips and it's "well that was already in place so couldn't touch that".....

Oh.... But everything else that was in place, that's "different"....

We see you....

We see through the BS, distortion and spin.

Tell me, what is it your so terrified Musk will see in the data?

What is it Musk, a person with TS-Q level clearance or better, who is entrusted with national Security Secrets, can not be trusted with?

What is this info that countless millions haven't freely given Musk at PayPal?

Musk has held TS-Q+ security clearance for years, all the data at paypal, and not 1 single instance of any fraud or impropriety ever.... But NOW, all of a sudden he can't be trusted......

Hummmm, I wonder what changed between all those years and now all of a sudden? What changed in recent weeks/month's where Musk suddenly can't be trusted....... I wonder.....

There is people, literally thousands of people, with significantly lessor security clearance, lessor scrutiny, lessor oversight, who have all this data and have for years on end. What about them?

I mean, if Musk and TS-Q security clearance is not enough, ok, then what security clearance level is enough?

Are you going to also demand the literal thousands of other Gov workers who have significantly lessor security clearance be immediately barred access to this data?

So you want the SS department to literally close, now, today. I guarantee not a single one of them has TS-Q clearance.

Medicare and Medicaid, you want them stopped and shut down too.

They have this data, your name, SS#, income etc. and not a 1 of those federal workers has TS-Q clearance.

Should I go on?

The IRS, holly-cow, they IRS has ten's of thousands with this data and not a dang one has received Top Secret Q level clearance.......

I hit you with facts and you spin, lie and distort. Because the entire premise of your argument is a lie.

The true premise is you Hate Trump, you hate Elon because of his association to Trump, and thus you hate anything and everything they do. But you can't speak that truth because you know it won't sell. So you seek info to assist your pre-determined narrative that there dumb, bad, and doing wrong.

VS I who have no agenda other than the truth, dig for the truth, for facts, and wherever they take me. And the facts are NOT what your propagandize.

Elon is definitively the most secured person to ever be appointed a presidential advisor or a cabinet head (even though he technically isnt, even if he was point stands).

Elon has done/doing projects for/with the NRO. Do you even know what that means?

You even TALK like them. It's chilling to listen to low education, high verbal volume folks. Your points are incorrect and painful to listen to.

Wow.... I of course was able to identify the "Looney Lefty" but I had no idea your were full on full-throttle NUTTER until saw your cra-cra video on how COVID was caused by Trump.....

How Trump "did it" that not enough medical things.....

Wow..... That takes a whole other level of derangement.

Since you keep banging the drum how were all so uneducated, inferring your so superior.... I am curious how University of Oklahoma in the 80's lends one to an idea of throwing such stones?

What's your MD "educate" on economics?

I actually went to school for Business and economics. As well as Engineering. So education wise, yeah, I think I got a leg up. I'd never mention it or brag to such but since you keep banging that drum, there ya go.

I also received a Presidential commendation for being in top 2% of National test scores when I completed High School. So I think I'm doing ok on the intelligence side of things.

Extra credit if anyone can guess right which President it was..... (Please say Obama, please say Obama, lol)

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Kelly Sennholz:

Quote from @Daniel B.:

Quote from @Kelly Sennholz:

All over the world, record numbers of Americans have relocated. It is in the news. I am pleased to help enlighten you.

Do you have any links or sources to the 'record number of Americans' that have relocated?

Quotes from realtors:

Costa Rica: "This is like nothing we have ever seen. There will be no way we have enough housing for everyone."

France: "We've been able to sell homes that have been on the market for years!"

European Country popular with Americans, "RECORD number of Americans applying for citizenship". https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/02/10/record-surge-in-irish-...

"..26 per cent more than in 2023".

https://www.wealthbriefing.com/html/article.php/Americans-Ap...

Record numbers of wealthy Americans move overseas https://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-americans-foreign-re...

Americans are headed for the exits. https://newrepublic.com/article/191421/trump-emigration-wave...

There have now been SO MANY incidents of innocent people, American Citizens OR visiting foreign folks, blocked at the border, arrested for no reason, business people trying to go to work kept in solitary isolation for no reason, withheld from their family, their lawyer and other horrific stories (on top of the baseline fear of being shot) that I don't think visitors are eager to come here and citizens are very eager to leave. Canadians are very successfully boycotting the U.S. and their actions are hurting a lot of biz's here.

The fact is: This circus tent is collapsing and everyone on earth can see it.

There is 0 point responding to you. Your so far off into the delusional land that it's like trying to deprogram a cult member.

Canadian exports to USA makes up 1/3rd of the entire Canadian economy.

USA exports too Canada are a drop in the bucket.

Canada can punch the us at cost of chopping off there own limb. Not complicated math to understand who comes out on top in any trade war there. All USA has to do is wait for Canada to burn it's economy to the ground, then Canadians swap out there gov over it and press to end the insanity, Canada capitulates and done.

The math is clear.

As for your lunatic narrative of people rampantly being nabbed up and held "for no reason" as try to enter USA...... You do realize your story then requires a statement that all the people working at border control are some form of gestapo......

Because as you say, they just randomly grab people "for no reason", throw em in solitary etc etc.. If you can't see how koo-koo-crazy a thing that is, your helpless.

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Kelly Sennholz:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Bruce Woodruff

thanks for the predictions! regardless of my political beliefs, i am of course still hopeful that the economy remains strong. even the cuts to foreign aid though i don't think will bring that much money back domestically... open to other perspectives on this but i don't see it.

i genuinely don't know what will happen with interest rates. i do think even if there is a slight decrease, it brings buyers back like you said.

one thing that doesn't get covered a lot is how many properties are owned free and clear - about 40% i believe. so, these owners are under a lot less pressure to sell than someone with a mortgage payment. and in my experience they'd rather leave a property vacant than sell for less than what their neighbor got.

Taking that money that was going overseas, and keeping it at home, has got to have a positive affect. I mean, we're talkin 100's of Billions....

The #1 positive effect it has, that I never hear any talk about, is it improves the US position in global economy and trade positioning.

How?

Think of it this way. The US has been providing all this "free security" to ___name_the_nations___ . So those nations don't have to spend the $ and manpower on doing it themself.

Instead, those nations can spend the $ on things improving there economies, there exports, there whatever that is COMPETING vs US exports or what-not.

FORCE the nations to pay for there own programs, to provide and fund there own security, forcing them to stand on there own 2 feet vs USING U.S. and U.S. $ to pay for and do the things they don't want to pay for or do..... Yes, those nations have less in other arenas to infill for what they USED the US to do.

It's like kicking a near 30-something adult child out of your basement.

Yup, they go kicking and screaming how there just gonna starve. But you know they are 100% capable of taking care of themself, they just don't want to because the free ride was so nice.

The US has been paying for it's own competition, just in a round about manner.

Think of it this way. If you own a Burger joint, and across the street is another burger joint, what would happen if you pay 15% of there rent for them?

What if you paid 15% of the rent for every restaurant on the block?

Yup, next thing ya know your the most expensive on the street and struggling to sell anything because you can't price it as cheap as they all do.

STOP paying there rents. When they have to cover there own bills, like magic your selling more, because they can't afford to undercut you anymore. The undercutting you paid for....

Exactly. It always bugged me about Canada. We basically provide for their national defense. Then they take the billions in savings and use it for their social programs and healthcare, which they brag about (it's actually pretty bad) I say make them pay for their own defense and we spend the money on us for once...

We're the strongest, wealthiest country on the planet even giving away all that dinero, imagine what a force we'd be if we kept it? And really it's better not to prop up these other countries, they'd be strobger if they had to provide for themselves...kinda like when you enable a person, it's really not good for them or you....

Yeah, Canada has been rather arrogant on that level of things.

Did you know the ENTIRE Canadian armed forces, all of it, every branch, every piece and part, EVERYTHING combined is LESS than just the USMC......

And USA did it to itself. I don't blame Canada, they were smart, they took advantage of a great deal, were the idiots who've done nothing about it forever.

But what really irks me is things like Saudi Arabia. What in the hell are we doing funding literally ANYTHING thing for the Kings of oil?????

Seriously. Why are we OPECS water patrol?

They are literally EPIC rich.

The MORONIC argument of "we have to. If we don't protect it we won't have any oil". Uhm, if they can't sell it there FKD! They need us buying oil 10X more than we need to buy it from em.

Europe is 1,000% capable of standing up it's own unified standing army to protect itself. They are not deficient in a single thing, not a 1. They simply lack the interest to do it because were dumb enough to do it for em still. That's 36,000+ standing active duty, 24-7, that we are paying for.

Imagine how much 36,000 active duty soldiers and their kit costs? It's many millions, per DAY. An aircraft carrier strike group costs $6.5million, per DAY! Just 1 CSG.

It makes me wonder what pathetic limp-rags did these negotiations for the USA.

Picture if we negotiated a home purchase they way they do these deals, lol. We'd be paying $500k for a $300k listed property, than selling it back to them a year later for $100k......

It sounds like you could use some geopolitical education. You have a lot of questions whose answers are readily available in books and texts on geopolitics of the 20th and 21st century. I recently looked it up for another "Google skills-deprived man" and there are literally scores of recent and fairly recent great books to choose from. I highly recommend you read some and if you are interested in some titles feel free to DM me, glad to help.

Your a fantastic point for why BP needs to bring back the ignore feature......

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@James Hamling

i think this question has come up before, but here goes again. i agree that the debt is unsustainable, i agree that something should be done about it, and i don't want 50% of the budget to go to interest payments every year.

with that said, though... is there a lightning strike once the debt to gdp ratio hits a certain number? is it... 150, 175, 200?

There is, but it's a little bit of a moving "goal post" depending on a few other ingredients. So it's more of a range, and the scary part is we were set to cross the threshold entering into that range later this year.....

So, for example, say we hold the trade imbalance, being a heavy net importer and thus a wealth exporter. Think of it that way, of trade and wealth living in relationship. Import more then export means export more wealth than import. And thus, it domestically deflating of $ in domestic system and thus presses a need for more inflation.

More inflation from such, generally means less volume because everything is more and thus people need to be more selective in purchases, right.

Than the next factor is some major event, so something melting down or happening that presses need to pump $ into domestic system.

That is inflationary, right.

So with that inflation the debt service goes UP, hastening the end.

Now on other side of coin say domestic economy growth goes way up, say trade balances a bit, export a bunch more, import less, that pushes the goal post out a bit BUT the inflation from that can draw it close at same time.

It's really tricky, very very complex.

The important part is thinking in terms of debt service, and being at a point where things are very tight, just getting by. One big unforeseen event that requires rapidly expanding that credit line, that could push things over the line.

And the next action from there is probably not just instant default. It's austerity.

The Gov. drastically slashing all kinds of everything, to divert $ too debt service to hold off default. Raising tax's drastically to squeeze out $ for debt service.

And all that, is an ounce of cure and a pound of poison.

Because at that point it kills the domestic economy, which lowers revenues, pushing austerity measures all the higher.

And the international world sees it all, and starts scrambling to sell Sell SELL out of USD securities.

And that's where the tail spin starts.

Fed starts mass printing, which is to build confidence but only erodes it, and trys to assure the world by the Fed buying up debt it's simultaneously printing but the world sees the scramble.

See it's a runaway train. Once it get's going, that's all but the end of it all because stopping it is next to impossible. That's why it's so important to stop what appears as tiny-tiny movement that direction.

The assumption the USD is "titanium" is exactly why it would go so bad. Because once that confidence is pierced, it's very literally a confidence bubble that explodes. Sentiment swings wildly to the opposite because something so absolute, so certain, so known, is now shattering. So FEAR is the natural response. And FEAR in proportion to the certainty lost.

Epic huge certainty in USD, so we know the FEAR would be equally epic.

The metric to watch is the debt service share of national budget. Because when it crosses that threshold that we are taking from other things to keep the party going...... That's the start of austerity. And were coming into that.

Hence why getting this chunk of debt refinanced at a much lower rate is worth tanking the stock market for a time. Because it really is worth it.

And the bet is that by tanking the market by design, it affords better chances and controls of giving it gas after the refinance.

But like a plane cutting prop, to then get going again. It may work, it may not in time to pull back up and avoid becoming a splat on the ground. The momentum is key.

Kinda funny how we had huge momentum down that was seemingly not stop, until administration jumped in to slow that momentum. Just sayin......

Not saying my theory of true reasons behind the actions are correct, but everything sure is following the path to a T. Coincidence? Maybe.

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Kelly Sennholz:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

I know that anytime Trump's name is mentioned, someone gets triggered. Either the post is too anti-Trump, or too Pro-Trump.

Let me be clear - I do not condemn Trump's policies or necessarily know whether they will be positive in the long-term future or not for real estate investors. Further, "Downward Pressure" may be "bad" for investors, but it may also be "good" for renters - his policies, if I am correct, may negatively impact housing prices and rents, to the detriment of investors and to the benefit of renters, in the near-term.

"Positive" or "Negative" impacts are relative. I write from the standpoint of a real estate investor, and I perceive Trump's actions to be threatening to near-term real estate investment returns, on the whole. I believe this because I think that on the whole, his first two weeks of actions are likely to:

- Have zero no impact on near-term supply (deliveries for single family and multifamily homes 2025 are a result of actions put into motion several years ago)

- Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect, other than providing a cheap source of easy social media clicks and engagement for real estate pundits. However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise in anticipation of tariffs, or in response to their implementation.

- Put downward pressure on demand: I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare. It's possible he carries it out, but I believe it unlikely. I believe it is far more likely, however, that the effect of his stance and actions materially lessens the flow of new illegal immigrants. This will slow new demand for rentals. In the event that any meaningful percentage of 10-15 million (estimates seem to vary widely depending on which news source you prefer) current illegal immigrants are deported, real estate investors will have a big problem as vacancies soar. It is likely that a huge percentage of that 10M-15M illegal immigrant population are renters. Regardless of whether investors currently rent to illegal immigrants, their competition in the market likely does.

- Put Upward pressure on real estate operating costs: Increased costs for raw materials and supplies, and the likely increased costs for labor involved in many real estate related CapEx and maintenance projects signal the risk of increase in costs for real estate operators.

If there is no impact on near-term supply, a modest slowing of inbound (illegal) migration, more reason to believe that the cost of many goods and services will increase, and real reason to believe that inflation triggered by something other than an increase in the money supply (namely the cost of specific goods and services that are NOT housing going up, which comprise the CPI) will force the Fed to raise rates, this, on the whole, is not good for real estate investment returns.

No, I do not think that there will be a housing crash or a massive drop, nationwide, in rents and prices. Yes, there will be offsets (do Tariffs and slowing illegal immigration increase wages for some workers - likely yes). But, I believe that the actions of the first two weeks should give investors, on the whole, reason to incrementally revise down their expectations for growth in prices or rent growth in 2025. There may also be incrementally better probability of deals, as investors who are dependent on rates coming down may find their hopes disappointed.

I think 2025 will be, by and large a buyer's market, and that the new administration's policies only, and again incrementally, make me more confident that this will be the case.

What do other investors think? Do you agree or disagree?

Keep in mind that most illegals are / were given free housing in hotels, group homes and many families living in the same space. They are not / were not instrumental in prices going up or responsible for the housing shortage.

Builders just haven't built enough houses to keep up with natural growth. A lot went out of business.

I think the Trumpster says what he means and means what he says. I can imagine there will be free transportation for any illegal that finds it in his best interest to head back to wherever.

It's only been two weeks, wait until the machine gets churning and things like dedicated passenger trains to the border are available & deporting more.

I think the most effective arguments Trump has, is that since many of the folks are very loyal family members, they will self-deport when grandma or grandpa are deported.

And, if they are told they can not reenter the country, for 20 years or so, if they don't self deport, with a permanent bar if they get deported. I believe that's an effective message.

And if the government removes the app that the illegals use to get food, shelter, money and legal advice, then it becomes a whole new ball game.

Regulations are slowing building down. And what I'm seeing is that many would be sellers think it's still 2022 when prices were higher. It will be a year or two before they emotionally catch up to reality and list at reasonable prices.

Your idea that the "illegals", as you call those humans, were the issue misses his point of the article, entirely. Around the world, I would say a majority of nations have "Do not travel" warnings about the United States due to potential violence, multiple innocent people being jailed at the border for no reason for WEEKS without notice to their family, etc, and the inability of even U.S. citizens to return to their own nation without onerous and fear inducing tactics by federal agents.

Travel to the U.S. has plummeted, particularly from Canada, U.K. and others. No one wants to be put in the path of this. Nations around the world are reforming trade agreements that eliminate the U.S.

It will impact rental numbers in a large way. Not to mention the many millions of top middle class folks leaving the country permanently.

Well there is that. He likely fixed the "tight housing" situation.

"Not to mention the many millions of top middle class folks leaving the country permanently."

Lol, now that's funny. I would like proof of this statement. You cannot provide it because your statement is not true. Other than Rosie O'Donnell that is. And she is not 'many millions'.

And FYI, the term illegals is a shortened version of 'Illegal Aliens' which refers to any persons that have immigrated to the US in an illegal manner, including false asylum claims, etc... So 'illegals' is not a denigration of anyone's character......

Wow, where do you guys get this stuff? NPR, Wapo, NYT....?

Feelings are not FACTS because you verbalize those feelings Kelly:

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/countries-issued-trav...

So the FACTS in the issued Travel ADVISORIES (not warnings) for traveling to USA are (a) follow the dang law, and (b) reality is your born with either indoor or outdoor plumbing, so STOP playing fantasy games demanding people pretend your something other than exactly what you are and put either male or Female on the dang paper, the gender you were born with. Oh, you feel your a trans-dimensional dragon...... good for you, born male or female.........

As for millions of Americans permanently leaving the USA, WHERE TO? My wife and I have been to every continent on earth except Antarctica, and more countries than I can recount, WHERE. Because in not 1 single place have we ever found or even heard of "millions of Americans" there...... Not in Europe, Mediterranean, Africa, Asia, Middle East..... Biggest American population I've ever heard of outside the USA is the Mormons in South America. Are you talking about the Mormons? I'm pretty sure there isn't millions of em there or heading there. Utah is still pretty nice.

3 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Peter W.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Bruce Woodruff

good post, concise statements! I think I agree with... some to most of it?

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

I think the US is a more desirable place to live and do business than much of the rest of the world.

to your point 5, I do think there is a job shortage that is likely to persist... but i don't know if it's in the most exciting of fields. for example, i believe we will need hundreds of thousands or potentially even millions of home health care aides.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

We assume that....but just ask around or think about it deeply. WHo else would be in the #1 position? Some people might say China....but their economy is a 'house of cards' as we hear over and over, plus a totalitarian Communist regime is not likely to be trusted, so not them. The EU? Too fragmented and diverse to be powerful enough. They can't even protect themselves without the US, hence NATO. So not them. India? Nope, lol....

It's really just us.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

So true, right? And AI will always have a huge trust factor.

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way.

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA.

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse.

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up.

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget.

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage.

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do.

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises.

And than we did it AGAIN......

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans.

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord.

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf.....

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them.

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China.

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb.

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda.

I usually agrree with ya.....but I really believe that, given the choice, most nations would rather be like us, and do business with us, than either China or Russia. And yes, I've travelled around a good bit....I see and hear both the disdain (and a little bit of jealosy) and the love and admiration for America.

Completely agree that our foreign policy has been a nightmare at times....under both parties. Misguided good intentions at best and outright greed and power mongering at worst. Bring back the Shah.
And Great Britain and other European powers have nothing to talk to us about...remember British Petroleum and Saudi Arabia...? Talk about a power grab.....

It's really the theory of America that people love. And unfortunately, the actual practice or actions that have made unnecessary enemies and disdain.

Iraq is a good example of what I am trying to say.

When we first rolled in there, in was nothing but cheer's, flowers, hug's n love. It was amazing. Next thing, the local military/police just wanted a chance to do normal things of running and helping there country, under USA control etc.. There big-wig general was all set. It was a slam dunk.

Than these D.C. morons took over and acted as if we were still in active combat. Demanded us control thru n thru, that nope all the soldiers, Generals, all of em were out and we'd instill something else. Complete idiocy. 48hrs later things started exploding.

And the rest is history.

Nothing was gained by any of it, and a hell of a lot was lost, all for the sake of power/money grab to funnel everything through big-corp..

That's the kind of stuff that the rest of the world leaders have seen and why none of em truly trust us. And USA earned that distrust.

And across Africa, yes, they do prefer to work with China or Russia vs USA in many ways because there is fear that USA will change there mind mid-stream, maybe decide there government needs to be changed, overthrown, or whatever. Because we've done that, a lot.

I don't think they necessarily "like" Russia or China, but they don't fear the partnership with them like they do USA. And that cost's the USA opportunaties.

Our meddling to "make things better" almost never works out. Afghanistan (twice now), iraq (3 times now), Syria, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea...... Our list of fails is long. Try to name some "nation building" we got right......

USA has gotta change the way we try to influence things or were just gonna keep building that list of distrust. And work on understanding we don't really always know what's best in foreign nations and foreign cultures.

We started getting things right in Iraq when we started focusing on taking a back-seat and assisting vs being the "nation builder" and that only happened because of ISIS, yet another line on USA's "whopsies" list.

Korea was the same, we had it done and in the can until McArthur wanted to really make sure he was set for a POTUS run and pressed the Chinease into getting into it. And all the way back to the 38th and where we sit today. There would be no "Rocket-Man" if he hadn't done that stupidity. And he was warned, i know because I knew the Lt Col who warned him personally and got it straight from the horses mouth himself.

The first step in solving a problem is first admitting you got one.

The USA is not loved, cherished and trusted in the world. We need to do something about that.

Yeah, nothing says that we’re worthy of love, trust, and cherishing than insulting the leaders of other countries (Canada and Ukraine), threatening to take them over (Canada, Greenland (part of Denmark) and imposing economically incoherent tariffs on the world.

Looks like those Econ 101 textbooks are re-asserting themselves, James. Kinda like what Neal Degrass Tyson said about science, it works, and it doesn’t care what we think.

I get where your coming from but find it wildly misplaced tunnel-vision to place all the blame on Trump the POTUS, the person, or his negotiation style.

There is some precedent for the negotiation style Trump has engaged in.

The size, scale and severity of the problems POTUS Trump inherited is so catastrophic, that choosing a path of extremity, it has some merit.

The reality is the USA is up against a choice of either insolvency, or hyper-inflation to delay insolvency which itself will end in insolvency.

This reality is mathematical. The math does not care what the political affiliation is, what the feelings are, nor how much one accepts or denies the reality. It is what it is. And decades of can-kicking has gotten us here.

I blame a series of Presidents and administrations who avoided actions and shoveled the mess forward to future generations to sort out, compounding the problem again and again.

I am 100% for reciprocal tariff's.

Keyword RECIPROCAL, meaning "you do this to us so we will give back exactly what your doing unto us".

If you are for "Free-Trade" than you too should be 100% for this.

Because "free-trade" is anti-tariff, is it not? Doesn't it mean 0 tariff's, on BOTH sides not just 1 side?????

It has NOT been that. It HAS been the world holding tariff's AGAINST USA, and the USA letting them send to us for FREE. That's ABUSE.

Reciprocal tariff's are LOOOOONG overdue. They should have been instituted from the start. As a requirement to "Free Trade", to assure actual "Free-Trade".

I think a lot of problems with the anti-Trump sentiment is some FAKE NEWS that Trump just randomly added tariff's where none were. NO, he is doing it IN RESPONSE TO the tariff's on USA, and have long been on USA.

Yes, that includes by our so called "allies".

Yup, that's right, these "allies" have been using and abusing the USA for years on end. So exactly how much of an ally are they?

They much more so fit the term of parasite than ally. Look it up, that's just the facts.

Next to all NATO members for years on end have simply refused to pay there contractually agreed to investment in NATO, using/abusing USA to carry there share.

It's messed up. Would you pay for golf, drinks and lunch for all your friends year after year after year because they all say you make more then them?

The whole time they are spending there money on things you'd love to have, universal health care or whatever, but you can't afford it because your paying for there security system! WTF....

USA has an image issue, a VERY big international image issue. And all these so called "allies" are also to blame for that because they have also used us to do the dirty work, throw USA under the bus for it.

I blame the USA for being the moron letting everyone use and abuse us, and we need to be self accountable for our actions and not be the worlds send-off. And we did it for ego stroke.

But don't get it wrong. USA has saved the collective azz's of the western world in more ways than one can count.

If Denmark doesn't like USA saying we support Greenland's RIGHTS to self-determination, too damn bad!

Supporting Greenland's rights to self-determination is NOT a declaration of invasion, and I'm so exhausted of the BS spinning it to that narrative.

France supported USA's right to self determination, and without it it's doubtful USA would exist today. USA kind of has a karma debt to do the same.

Canada is no different. And fact is not that many years ago Canada actually had votes about splitting, USA didn't come up with that out of nowhere.

Again, USA saying "Hey, if you wanna join us, we'd be game for that" is NOT invasion/occupation. USA has every right to offer such, and if Denmark or Canada doesn't like us putting the offer out there then maybe you should, ya know, just earn those regions never wanting to leave them.

Trump didn't make USA 34+ trillion in debt. So let's stop the polarized tribalism that all bad in existence is from Trump, more or less any 1 person or group.

The reality is the USA is up against a choice of either insolvency, or hyper-inflation to delay insolvency which itself will end in insolvency.

I really liked the way you said this earlier James, and to me this is the big question. Is the US insolvent (or becoming)? If we are slipping into insolvency, perhaps we can reverse it, but change always comes with pain. If we are not insolvent, everything Trump is doing is unnecessary pain. If we are, it looks like messy attempts to resolve the problem.

To me we are insolvent--our national debt is 1.3-1.5x GDP. Only once has a country exceeded 1x debt to GDP and not defaulted and it took them nearly 100 years to pay the debt down. To pay down the debt by growth would mean the GDP would need to grow by more than 7% per year to keep up with debt with a balanced budget. If long term debt year goes back to 2%, then it's closer to 3.5-4% which is managable. Either that or we need to cut spending drastically.

"I really liked the way you said this earlier James, and to me this is the big question. Is the US insolvent (or becoming)?"

So technically, no USA is not insolvent, yet, but that's the crux of it all. USA is 110% bankrupt, and has been for a very long time. And that has put us on a train too insolvency.

That "train" got upgraded in COVID too a bullet train too insolvency.

This is why we are seeing the first cracks in USD, there is the early signs of questions of it's strength. These have been around and shown little tiny blips for some time but now the very earliest hairline cracks have shown.

Now, does that mean a USD collapse is imminent, NO.

And that's the most frustrating thing about all this, peoples insane polarized extremism. That things gotta be either collapsing or rocketing.

USA is in a place that no civilization in human history has ever returned from, not 1 ever. 100% have collapsed.

Does that mean USA will collapse? No, nobody went to the moon before USA did. What it does mean is the problem and the situation is EXTREMELY complex and difficult, and there is no historical play-book for how to fix it.

So Trump doing "odd" things I say great, because we know it's going to take something different. What different, literally nobody knows.

Will Trumps different actions work? Again, nobody knows. I am just glad somebody is trying.

Because the first action in solutions is TRYING.

And not trying has a certainty of the end. The insolvency train rockets right off the cliff of USD collapse...... And that's a VERY ugly future. Not just for the USA but the entire world.

When Germany went this direction due to the WWI setup put on them, it resulted in WWII and global catastrophe. This isn't a controversial take of mine, it is the prevailing known/accepted catalyst for causation of WWII.

The collapse of the Soviet Union blew open a series of wars lessor knowns to Americans as it was Eastern focused.

When empires collapse, it is always expressed in sudden realizations from long compounding causalities, and they always result in mass wars for years on end.

When the Mongol empire collapsed, Rome..... The examples are many.

I am not a fan of all things Trump and far from a "Trumpster". I am thankful for someone facing it, head on, pulling it into the light it deserves, and TRYING.

I give grace and empathy to the journey he is on. I try to understand before criticize.

If Biden had tried vs focusing on padding his families pockets I'd had held the same sentiment for him or his cackling parrot VP. There were a definitive do-nothing administration.

Sock-puppet politicians.

We need Statesman, people of BOLD actions and BOLD ambitions. We may not like it but it's who and what we NEED.

JFK was a train wreck in so many ways but God bless the man's ambition and how he pushed the nation forward into a future.

Regan, as flawed as he was, won the most pivotal war of the time and did it without a hot war.

The issue of the day is the solution for the American people, is the poison for the global elite. Because it is a choice, and war, between main street and global elite. That's just the reality of it. To live at the pinnacle of a pyramid, it requires a wide and deep base of sheeple.

I don't blame the ultra wealth elite at that pinnacle from trying to hold their altitude for eternity. I would too, any would.

My Grandfather used to have a saying about his time in service that applies well to my feelings on this: "I never killed a finer soldier then those damn Jap's."

I understand and respect the elite and position there in, heck even admire. But I am a solider of main-street, unrepentantly.