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All Forum Posts by: Nick B.

Nick B. has started 47 posts and replied 1101 times.

Post: What beats apartment syndication returns for passive income?

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109
Originally posted by @Kurt Granroth:

The question I asked to start this thread was "What beats apartment syndication returns for passive income?" and it's far to consider if index funds in the stock market fit that bill.  I do have precisely one data point in that regard, now, as my very first deal has sold. Now that its cycle has completed, I have final numbers that can be compared to alternate options.

In particular, what if I had used the initial capital to invest in VTSAX, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. That is as "passive" as you can get. In the alternate timeline, I simply collect the dividends rather than re-invest them and sell the stock on the same day as the MFA deal closed. Here are the results:

MFA
Multiple:
1.32x
Annualized CoC: 11.24%

VTSAX
Multiple: 1.51x
Annualized CoC: 17.5%

So, yeah, in this specific case, the stock market easily beat the syndication for passive returns.

Yes, I do get that the stock market returns are largely due to the inexplicably bullish 2020, whereas MFAs all tended to do relatively poorly that specific year. This deal was also considered somewhat under-performing which is why it was even sold so early, and so doesn't necessarily (hopefully) reflect the rest of my portfolio. I also still have tax benefits from the MFA including the 1031 where I'm pushing my sale proceeds plus the remaining excess passive losses that should be shielding me in the future. And finally, this is literally just one data point out of what will be many data points, so I really can't read anything meaningful from it.

Still... VTSAX for the commanding win, this time.

It's as "apples to oranges" as it gets! You cannot cherry-pick a single MFA investment and compare it with a basket of 5000+ stocks. You need to have statistically comparable baskets.

E.g. 500 MFAs over 50 states vs. S&P 500. Otherwise, anything can be proven or disproven with this kind of comparison.

Post: Reasonable percents for repairs, vacancy, and cap-ex

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

The only variable out of the three you mentioned that can be expressed in percents is vacancy.

The other two (capex and repairs) must be budgeted in dollars. They do not depend on rents and that's why it makes no sense to use percentage of rent to estimate them.

Post: What does INF% mean in the report?

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

You may put something like $1 for the down-payment and you'll have some astronomical ROI percentage :-)

However, percentages don't pay bills, dollars do. So, focus more on the dollar amounts you're making and see if these amounts satisfy you. 

Post: What does INF% mean in the report?

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

INF% means "infinite return". When you refinance and take out more than you put in initially, your initial equity goes below zero. The calculator, however, stops at zero and uses it as your initial investment. When you divide whatever cashflow on zero equity you get infinite return.

Post: Finding owners of apartment building (commercial properties)

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

corporationwiki.com is a good one

Post: Where can I passively invest $20,000 in apartments?

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

Are you accredited or sophisticated investor? Based on your question, I suspect that you are neither. If that's the case it's better for you hold on to your money until you educate yourself enough to at least tell a good deal from a bad one.

But ever after that, $20K won't get you far as you're looking to get 13-16% ROI. In absolute dollars it is just $2600-3200/year. Less than half of it would come from distributions and the rest is only paid to you when the property is sold in something like 5 years.

Post: Property Tax Estimator for Grand Prairie Texas (Near Dallas)

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

Best way to estimate taxes in Texas is to get a last year tax bill (public data) and then apply all tax rates from that bill to the assumed property value. A quick way is to use 2.5% as the tax rate. 

Post: Best Multifamily Syndicate

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109
Originally posted by @Riza Hernandez:

@Nick B. What is the company name?

 Equity Residential. Google "Sam Zell" and you'll get the whole picture :-) 

Post: Multi-family cashout refinance (Houston, TX)

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109
Originally posted by @Kat N.:

@Nick B. Thank you so much for your insights. Great point on the utility inclusion vs exclusion, I will check the norm in Houston. 

There are 104 units, and the yearly potential rent = $1.1M (not yet net out vacancy). Do you think $145K payroll is enough?

Based on the unit count, $145K is enough (may be even more than enough). However, $800K renovation (less than $8K/unit) may not be enough if the property is in really bad shape. Also, there is no such thing as "norm in Houston" (or "norm in any other MSA"). Houston is huge. You need to get information about particular area where that property is located. While you at that, look also at income and crime statistics there.

On RUBs and rents: average rent in this place is $880/mo. The proposed utility bill is $107/mo. That's an equivalent of $107 rent increase. Does the local submarket have rents of $987 or higher for "all-bills-paid" properties? 

Post: Multi-family cashout refinance (Houston, TX)

Nick B.Posted
  • Investor
  • North Richland Hills, TX
  • Posts 1,111
  • Votes 1,109

@Kat N.

I don't see much of the value-add here with NOI increase depending mostly on the expense reduction. If expenses stay the same or increase (and some of them will!) this project is doomed. I don't think there will be another buyer down the road willing to pay 1.7% cap rate.

A good value-add deal has rents way below market ($250+) and that drives the NOI increase. Shifting utilities to tenants may help but only if all other properties in the area do that. If most other apartments are "all-bills-paid", it would be difficult to change that on a single property in the neighborhood.

You did not mention unit count and without it it is difficult to say if $145K in payroll is enough.