@David Roe Whether you think the virus or pandemic is real... the effects of it certainly are. We're all living in uncharted territory right now. You seem fairly confident in your prediction of a quick recovery. Did you also predict that our country (and the world) would be where it is right now from this virus? Can you predict how much longer we'll be in it?
The reason why investors and lenders, especially those who've been doing it for decades, are scared of the situation isn't necessarily because of the virus itself, but because of the reaction to it. They don't want to put their money at risk when they can't predict what people (and the government) are going to do. They're more concerned with return OF their money than potential return ON their money right now.
If the quarantines and shut-downs had ended last month, I would have felt better about the economy and the housing market. At this point, I think some things are permanent. Not everyone will get their old jobs back because a lot of jobs simply won't exist anymore. Companies/businesses (especially restaurants and startups) are going out of business. Those that can last until the country opens up again are not going to go on a hiring spree when the pandemic is over because their consumers won't be back to their normal spending habits right away. Do you think you'll see airplanes filled to capacity anytime soon? Or packed football games, movie theaters? Do you think people will go back to work and start spending simply because the President says they can? Watching other countries that have opened up ahead of us gives an indication of our recovery.
You mentioned that things were so good before this virus came along. There were a lot of folks saying that we were overdue for a recession (based on historical data of normal markets), and this virus just kick-started it. Whether you believe that or not... do you disagree that we were much closer to the peak than the bottom?
In my market, we're still seeing insane competition, an average of 4-5 offers within the first week with pre-inspections. One of my investor friends listed a house a couple of weeks ago and had 50 showings and 10 offers, all at or higher than list price. Within 3 days, they got under contract with $110k over asking, all contingencies waived, and non-refundable earnest money. Do I believe that our market will be this good in 3-6 months? Definitely not. Real estate tends to lag the economy by at least 6 months here. So I've stopped buying flips and BRRRRs because I don't know what an ARV looks like in 6 months, and I don't know what the state of lending will look like either. When lending changes, I don't know if I can refinance (my BRRRR), and I don't know how many of my buyers can still get a loan (for my flips).
I think you may be able to find lenders for your deals, but keep in mind that lending on your price point was difficult even before the pandemic. I recommend looking for lenders local to your properties because they're more familiar and comfortable with those price points. Lenders have already priced in risk, meaning that you're going to pay more for less (compared to before).