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All Forum Posts by: Joe Villeneuve

Joe Villeneuve has started 0 posts and replied 12916 times.

Post: Cash flow is a myth? Property does not cash flow till its paid off?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535

If you are in the less common areas where the taxes and ins are increasing by leaps, then the solution is to sell the property and take your equity and buy in an area where the tax/ins increases aren't out of line.

Post: Detroit's Renaissance: #1 in Appreciation in USA Over Last 10 Years!

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Joe S.:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:
Quote from @Joe S.:
Quote from @Travis Biziorek:

Love to see it as I've been pounding the table on Detroit for a long time now.

@vgj makes a good point... yes, it's from a small base, but you quickly lose the plot. 

When I started aggressively buying in 2019 the median home price in Detroit was $40,000... it's now $95,000.

That's massive, and it doesn't matter if it's a small base or not as long as you're putting the same amount of capital to work you'd invest in another market.

Second, what are people going to say 5 years from now when the median price of a Detroit home is $200,000? 

But... BUT... it's from such a small base! Who cares? It's about rate of return and it's been hard to beat Detroit over the last 10 years. I imagine that's not going to change over the next 10.

But you're welcome to keep betting against it. I won't be.

 I hear what you’re saying…
The repair cost on such small base is what sounds a bit scary. For example or roofs and AC units less expensive on a smaller base house? I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer. I’m just talking from my heart about the concern I have. If the repairs were as small as the base the picture would look a whole lot more inviting. 
I definitely think that if a person is local they have a better chance of making money there.  

I can answer that one.  Yes, the size of the A/C and the cost of the roof will go down as the size of the house (A/C) and the size of the footprint (roof) goes down.
I bought some properties a couple years back in a particular area that I assumed the prices to get them repaired were similar in relation to the prices I was buying them for. Was I ever more mistaken. Maybe my Property Manager did not have good connections🧐
All of what you said I have run into also.  What I said above regarding prices based on size of the home is true, but not always applied.  They also change based on time of year, and availability of contractors.  At any given time, smaller houses will cost less for the same time than larger ones, but roofs in winter will cost more than the same roof in the summer.
Also, and this is big, the higher the pitch, the more expensive the roof.  This usually comes into play a lot with smaller homes, especially bungalows in the midwest, because of their higher pitches.  A ranch that's the same size as a bungalow, with have a less expensive roof because of the lower pitch.

Post: Cash flow is a myth? Property does not cash flow till its paid off?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

Huh? Definitely not a guru, I invest myself and am a realtor with many repeat clients. What is there not to believe about real estate cash flowing? Few years ago every one talked about cash flow on here, now people just talking about appreciation. I only buy positive cash flow and so do my clients. It’s the only safe way to scale and cash flow is most definitely NOT a myth. That 4 I mentioned was bought 5 years ago. Of course you won’t make 25-35k net in year 1 or 2 but if you buy 3/4 unit buildings in a growing market you can after a few years. Rents go up and mortgage stays the same aka they cash flow more and more the longer you hold even with a mortgage. 


 Since when does the mortgage payment stay the same?

Do you not have taxes? Do you not have insurance? Do those both not increase every year or every couple of years at the minimum. Everyone's mortgage payment will increase over time due to taxes and insurance. Ask anyone in Florida near the coast. Ask anyone in California near fire territories. 

Interest rates were what, near 3%, 5 years ago. And what today - probably near 8%. So the pre-covid era is much different than the post-covid era. In terms of appreciation as well. We own a family cabin in Tennessee - was ~275k or so back in 2018. Now it's easily 850k. But do I think it makes sense to cash flow or see the appreciation pre-covid in the post-covid era? No. 

Do I think Chicago Illinois is appreciating like you said? Nope. Getting the appreciation like you mentioned (850k valued 4 plex) and netting 35k/year in cashflow. I doubt it seriously. 

Mortgage payments stay the same.  Just because you pay taxes on the same bill as your mortgage doesn't change the mortgage.  Taxes go up, insurance go up.  they are two separate bills.

Yes, exactly. Point is whatever overall monthly payment you are making on the house increases over time. 

So the notion of - "payment staying the same while rent increases" is false. The monthly expense payment increases over time. You rehab and increase the value - assessed at a higher value and now have higher taxes. 

We've seen a 50% insurance increase here in the last last 2 years - that's like the minimum. Lots of people in higher risk zones are seeing 100%+ or even canceled policies with no option to renew. 

The mortgage payment doesn't change.  The taxes and insurance does.  That isn't the same as the mortgage payment increasing, even though you may pay for your taxes in the monthly payment.  The mortgage part doesn't increase.
Yes, I understand the distinction. 

P&I stays the same for the duration of the loan. PITI increases. 

You're responsible for PITI so your overall monthly payment increases. 
Monthly payment, not mortgage.

Post: Detroit's Renaissance: #1 in Appreciation in USA Over Last 10 Years!

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Joe S.:
Quote from @Travis Biziorek:

Love to see it as I've been pounding the table on Detroit for a long time now.

@vgj makes a good point... yes, it's from a small base, but you quickly lose the plot. 

When I started aggressively buying in 2019 the median home price in Detroit was $40,000... it's now $95,000.

That's massive, and it doesn't matter if it's a small base or not as long as you're putting the same amount of capital to work you'd invest in another market.

Second, what are people going to say 5 years from now when the median price of a Detroit home is $200,000? 

But... BUT... it's from such a small base! Who cares? It's about rate of return and it's been hard to beat Detroit over the last 10 years. I imagine that's not going to change over the next 10.

But you're welcome to keep betting against it. I won't be.

 I hear what you’re saying…
The repair cost on such small base is what sounds a bit scary. For example or roofs and AC units less expensive on a smaller base house? I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer. I’m just talking from my heart about the concern I have. If the repairs were as small as the base the picture would look a whole lot more inviting. 
I definitely think that if a person is local they have a better chance of making money there.  

I can answer that one.  Yes, the size of the A/C and the cost of the roof will go down as the size of the house (A/C) and the size of the footprint (roof) goes down.

Post: Cash flow is a myth? Property does not cash flow till its paid off?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

Huh? Definitely not a guru, I invest myself and am a realtor with many repeat clients. What is there not to believe about real estate cash flowing? Few years ago every one talked about cash flow on here, now people just talking about appreciation. I only buy positive cash flow and so do my clients. It’s the only safe way to scale and cash flow is most definitely NOT a myth. That 4 I mentioned was bought 5 years ago. Of course you won’t make 25-35k net in year 1 or 2 but if you buy 3/4 unit buildings in a growing market you can after a few years. Rents go up and mortgage stays the same aka they cash flow more and more the longer you hold even with a mortgage. 


 Since when does the mortgage payment stay the same?

Do you not have taxes? Do you not have insurance? Do those both not increase every year or every couple of years at the minimum. Everyone's mortgage payment will increase over time due to taxes and insurance. Ask anyone in Florida near the coast. Ask anyone in California near fire territories. 

Interest rates were what, near 3%, 5 years ago. And what today - probably near 8%. So the pre-covid era is much different than the post-covid era. In terms of appreciation as well. We own a family cabin in Tennessee - was ~275k or so back in 2018. Now it's easily 850k. But do I think it makes sense to cash flow or see the appreciation pre-covid in the post-covid era? No. 

Do I think Chicago Illinois is appreciating like you said? Nope. Getting the appreciation like you mentioned (850k valued 4 plex) and netting 35k/year in cashflow. I doubt it seriously. 

Mortgage payments stay the same.  Just because you pay taxes on the same bill as your mortgage doesn't change the mortgage.  Taxes go up, insurance go up.  they are two separate bills.

Yes, exactly. Point is whatever overall monthly payment you are making on the house increases over time. 

So the notion of - "payment staying the same while rent increases" is false. The monthly expense payment increases over time. You rehab and increase the value - assessed at a higher value and now have higher taxes. 

We've seen a 50% insurance increase here in the last last 2 years - that's like the minimum. Lots of people in higher risk zones are seeing 100%+ or even canceled policies with no option to renew. 

The mortgage payment doesn't change.  The taxes and insurance does.  That isn't the same as the mortgage payment increasing, even though you may pay for your taxes in the monthly payment.  The mortgage part doesn't increase.

Post: Cash flow is a myth? Property does not cash flow till its paid off?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Wayne Kerr:
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

Huh? Definitely not a guru, I invest myself and am a realtor with many repeat clients. What is there not to believe about real estate cash flowing? Few years ago every one talked about cash flow on here, now people just talking about appreciation. I only buy positive cash flow and so do my clients. It’s the only safe way to scale and cash flow is most definitely NOT a myth. That 4 I mentioned was bought 5 years ago. Of course you won’t make 25-35k net in year 1 or 2 but if you buy 3/4 unit buildings in a growing market you can after a few years. Rents go up and mortgage stays the same aka they cash flow more and more the longer you hold even with a mortgage. 


 Since when does the mortgage payment stay the same?

Do you not have taxes? Do you not have insurance? Do those both not increase every year or every couple of years at the minimum. Everyone's mortgage payment will increase over time due to taxes and insurance. Ask anyone in Florida near the coast. Ask anyone in California near fire territories. 

Interest rates were what, near 3%, 5 years ago. And what today - probably near 8%. So the pre-covid era is much different than the post-covid era. In terms of appreciation as well. We own a family cabin in Tennessee - was ~275k or so back in 2018. Now it's easily 850k. But do I think it makes sense to cash flow or see the appreciation pre-covid in the post-covid era? No. 

Do I think Chicago Illinois is appreciating like you said? Nope. Getting the appreciation like you mentioned (850k valued 4 plex) and netting 35k/year in cashflow. I doubt it seriously. 

Mortgage payments stay the same.  Just because you pay taxes on the same bill as your mortgage doesn't change the mortgage.  Taxes go up, insurance go up.  they are two separate bills.

Post: Detroit's Renaissance: #1 in Appreciation in USA Over Last 10 Years!

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Drew Sygit:

How high can housing prices in the City of Detroit go?

In case you missed it, Detroit' Mayor Duggan announced that the value of houses in the city increased 23% in 2024.

In the last 7 years, Detroit housing is up over 300%!

That's an average of 17% annually over that time.

The City of Detroit has not only outperformed every city in the Metro Detroit area, its outperformed every city in the USA from 2014-2024:

Let that sink in for a minute ... you'll probably need more time than that to process this!

Not only did Detroit beat every city in other popular Midwest states like Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc...

Detroit beat every city in the super popular states of Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas - Detroit beat them ALL!

Now let's be real, yes housing values are up overall in the city, but they do vary by Neighborhood. So, it's still NOT a good idea to try to invest by zip codes - which are too big in our opinion/experience. Please stop asking us for "the best" zip codes to invest in.

Detroit has around 183 Residential Neighborhoods - wouldn't it be nice if "some proprety mangagement company" Classified them all as A, B, C, or D on an interactive map that real estate investors could use to make better decisions?

Brilliant summary of the Detroit situation/market. This could be the best post you've made, and you've made a lot of great ones. If I had a Nickle for every time I got asked where to invest in Detroit I'd stop REI and retire on it. OK, maybe a dollar not a Nickle.
Most important point you made are the zip codes.  This is true anywhere, but on steroids in Detroit.  It's like a checkerboard of zip codes, and another checkerboard within each zip code.  Micro-markets.  You need to really understand how to differentiate between these micro-markets, then how to correctly analyze them.
Lucky for me, I designed software that does the financial analysis and mapping for me.  It took years to perfect it, and I'm still tweaking it,...probably will never stop tweaking it, but that's just me.  I found this is the only way to truly understand that "checker board".
Detroit is a tremendous opportunity now.  However, I always tell out of state investors to forget it.  The ones that don't usually have eyes that get really big when they see average return numbers, and end up buying burnouts in crack areas because they are priced so low.
My recommendation to them is to find someone very experienced in this market, bring your cash, and partner with them.

Post: Cash flow minimum?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Marcos De la Cruz:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:

None.  The first mistake is the property is free and clear.  
If you achieved this by paying all cash, then you are losing money.  The CF is only playing catchup to the cost to you of the property.  If you paid all cash, you paid full price for the property, and the cash flow, any amount of cash flow, is only playing catchup.


 I didn't pay cash. I did a cash out refi on my principal residence at a much lower rate and paid it off.Now I plan on using the equity for more purchases.

What?  You would then have two loans, one on your home and one on the refi to access the equity on the investment home.
Why not just use the refi cash out from your home loan for future deals?

Post: Cash flow is a myth? Property does not cash flow till its paid off?

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535
Quote from @Max Emory:
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

@Max Emory what you’re saying is absurd, you most definitely can cash flow on leveraged real estate. I have a 4 unit that has a mortgage and consistently nets me 25-35k after everything each year including reserves. I have tons of clients with 3/4 units that also hit similar returns consistently after the first year or two.

 @Henry Lazerow, thanks for your perspective. I apologize if my post offended you.

I have leveraged rentals that cash flow as well. I'm not saying it's impossible or they don't exist. I'm only saying they're not as prevalent as the ones that do not cash flow.

If what you are saying is there are more properties that don't have NCF than the ones that have PCF, you are absolutely correct.  That's not exactly new though.  It's always been that way, and always will be.  That's also not a deterrent to REI...and it never was, and never will be.
The real key comes down to analyzing markets, and not just individual properties.  You find the numbers, and strategies that work in any specific market you choose, then wait until a property pops up that meats that criteria, and jump on it.
"Dart board" investing/analysis works, but is very inefficient. 

Post: Appreciation or Cash Flow Focus When Starting Out

Joe Villeneuve
#5 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Plymouth, MI
  • Posts 13,461
  • Votes 19,535

Both. There is no either or here...especially when starting out.  Understand that the cost to the investor is only the cash that's out of pocket.  The role of cf is to recover that cost. NCF just adds to your cost. Equity is your frozen cash that you access as it grows to build your portfolio