Wow, I spent too much time on this post this morning. I though I was going to leave a simple quick comment and then started reading...
Here are 3 quick thoughts.
1. We, and that is a collective "we" including myself and a lot of other investors who have been doing this for a very long time, can sometimes have trouble allowing others to define their own success. I work with and have gotten to know so many investors that it is impossible to count the different ways different people define success. Cash flow, returns, hedge, preservation of capital, equity growth, ability to refinance, etc., etc.... Everyone gets to define their success - even the guy that says success is have some extra bucks each month to go on dates or rent cool cars. It may not be how "we" define it, but if they do then so be it.
By that logic, I would put the percentage of people being successful in real estate a little higher. I don't include in my logic anyone who hasn't actually invested. Tire kickers and lookie-loos that never get in the game shouldn't be counted in my opinion. Doesn't amtter if they arein a facebook group or bought a course or paid a mentor or guru. Until you've put your money into the market, I don't consider that person an investor. Those that have put their money in, I wouldn't be surprised if the number was greater than 50% would say they are successful. They get to define what it means to them.
2. I tip my hat to every investor who comes on here and shares. Even when their numbers or math are wrong. I'm big enough to say that I have learned a ton from other posters and am humble enough to admit at times I've written things on here that are incorrect from a returns standpoint. I say that to remind everyone who started investing after the 2008 crisis that the real strength of your portfolio, your decisions and your knowledge go on display when the next crisis starts. It has been an incredible run for many investors and everyone who bought and held in the last 8 years like the example in Arlington should be congratulated. But pulling out cash, keeping leverage high, re-leveraging that cash into new properties and eventually growing a monthly payment that far exceeds your day job income is exactly how many investors lost everything. When I start reading about pulling cash out as values rise and "infinite returns", I'm reminded of how many good properties I have been able to buy over the last decade plus where a bank wanted to off-load non-performing notes. When properties go vacant and they always do and then need work to be brought back to market and they always do, cash flow tightens. When investors suddenly have to use their day job to pay for repairs and notes because properties sit too long or repairs are super high, refinancing and pulling our equity is not an option. That ain't fun!
It's what we don't know that bites us in the a$$ every time and I have a feeling that investors who are not aware of the real danger they put themselves in are the same ones who won't recognize the time to sell and realize their return. At that point, they'll no longer define their success and instead blame a guru!
Lastly, I actually like reading what @james Hamling writes on here. I don't argue with him though...ever, lol. He always has data!