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All Forum Posts by: Patrick Philip

Patrick Philip has started 262 posts and replied 908 times.

Post: Why hasn't the market crashed yet?

Patrick PhilipPosted
  • Florida
  • Posts 912
  • Votes 107
Originally posted by @Jerry Ricci:

As far as "crashes" I would agree, once in a lifetime. I think you are talking about corrections though.

Keep your eyes on the T Bills....everything will follow that thermometer. Usually every 7-10 years you see corrections....much more noticeable in the sun belt, but really anywhere there is rampant speculation.  

 Yes, but the next correction will be nowhere near as bad as the last one. People will panic, but it just won't be as bad.

Also, I think many people now erroneously assume that "the economy" and "home prices" are one and the same just due to the fact that the collapse of housing market was the catalyst of the last crash.

Although it still kind of scares me that I called my credit card company asking for a limit increase and they didn't even ask for proof of income. They just took my word for it and increased my limit. And this is a major bank.

Post: Why hasn't the market crashed yet?

Patrick PhilipPosted
  • Florida
  • Posts 912
  • Votes 107

Because the Federal Reserve is run by very intelligent people. They will purposefully slow the economy just to avoid major crashes. And keep in mind that when the economy "crashes," all that means is that we are admitting that we could not afford all that stuff we bought with credit.

Leading indicators = M2 money supply, new housing starts, new building permits. 

Also, watch out when the yield on a 2 year Treasury bond exceeds that of the 10 year note.

(This is for the ECONOMY, not the stock market, which are 2 entirely different things. Measuring one is not measuring the other. In my opinion, the stock market is so ridiculously inflated at all times that it barely makes sense.)

Post: Two house flipping questions?

Patrick PhilipPosted
  • Florida
  • Posts 912
  • Votes 107

For those who have rehabbed a good number of them succesfully...

1. Do you always assume that you're going to be doing a complete renovation? (aside from maybe the roof). I ask because if a house doesn't necessarily need something replaced, for example let's say the cabinets are fairly new, but not brand new. They aren't bad enough so that they absolutely must be replaced, but if you don't replace them, that means your final product won't be as good as it would have been with brand new. Do you follow what I'm saying here? Should I just always assume I'm going to need new floors throughout, new cabinets, countertops, appliances, most or all of the light fixtures replaced, new paint in and out. Why hang on to things that are 80% of the way there when you could make them brand new and they'd be 100%? The only reason would be price and it might actually make more sense to buy things that you know are junk rather than to replace things that are "decent but not perfect."

2. What are your flooring schemes? I'm the type of person who likes to standardize everything. I want to basically do the same thing every time. I have recently been suggested to do 6" x 36" porcelain or ceramic plank flooring ("wood look") throughout the entire house, including all the bathrooms and bedrooms. I'm not personally a fan of carpet anywhere, but it's not about what I like, it's about what will appeal to the most buyers and get the highest price for the house. On my first 2 houses, I bought the cheapest square ceramic tile that looked decent enough from Home Depot or Lowe's. I hired a handyman to put it in for $1/SF and the tile cost about $0.69/SF. I won't be doing that again. I went shopping for flooring companies and found one that will install the "wood look" planks for $4.69/SF including materials and labor. I'm okay with spending more on the floor installation because I know it will be done right and I won't have to babysit a handyman every day.

Originally posted by @J Scott:
Originally posted by @Patrick Philip:
Originally posted by @Will Barnard:

As J stated, not a job for the GC, send to the proper sub - handyman or appliance install crew.

 In your opinion, what are the jobs that a GC should do? I recently went to a seminar given by someone who has flipped close to 500 houses. I was instructed to build a team that consists of:

GC, plumber, electrician, HVAC, landscaper, floor installer, roofer.

It was my understanding that the GC should do everything that is not covered by one of the others. 

A GC should hire contractors, manage contractors, manage the schedule, manage the budget and manage quality.

Other than hiring a contractor, you don't need any of that other stuff for this quick and easy job.  And it's much easier to hire a handyman to do these things than to hire a GC to hire a handyman to do these things, and then pay a whole bunch extra for the GC's time and effort.

Btw, if you paid for a seminar where the person teaching didn't tell you the difference between a GC and subcontractors, I would ask for your money back.

 I was advised not to hand the project over to a GC, but to maintain control of the project myself.

The money goes from me to the electrician, without the GC as an unnecessary middleman.

I also really don't like paying people by the hour because they would work very slowly.

Originally posted by @Will Barnard:

As J stated, not a job for the GC, send to the proper sub - handyman or appliance install crew.

 In your opinion, what are the jobs that a GC should do? I recently went to a seminar given by someone who has flipped close to 500 houses. I was instructed to build a team that consists of:

GC, plumber, electrician, HVAC, landscaper, floor installer, roofer.

It was my understanding that the GC should do everything that is not covered by one of the others. 

When doing a conract with my GC on a rehab project, what are appropriate prices for:

-installing a microwave (above sink)

-hooking up stove (basically just means moving it into place and plugging it in)

-setting refrigerator in place (putting all the shelves in, hooking it up to icemaker line)

-dishwasher (anchoring it in place, possibly hooking it up to electric but maybe my electrcian would do that)

And also what is an appropriate amount to add to the contract for delivery of materials and the time it takes to go get them? I have a separate company doing floors, so the biggest items would be appliances and probably drywall if there is a lot of drywall work.

What is the "dumpster situation" like in a normal rehab project? On the past two, I've done a portion of the work myself and had mostly handymen helping me. We used those portable "Bagsters," but I don't think that's how it's done professionally.

Originally posted by @Jeff Kehl:

@Patrick Philip you just got the financial prize without the investment so keep them as long as you can.

 True. Except for 1 thing.

My end goal is to sell it as a stabilized asset. It would be kind of odd selling a complex with 11 luxury units, and 1 old junky one. Lol.

I've been looking at a 12-unit apartment complex. 9 units occupied, 3 vacant. There are many renovations I would do to the inside of each unit. Floors, painting, drywall, replacing fixtures, etc.

How can I do this while they are still under lease?

Or is my only option.... to renovate them while they're vacant and just tell the people the lease in unable to be renewed as they become available?

Originally posted by @Jeff Kehl:

@Patrick Philip I also have no experience with hotels other than to have gotten fairly close to buying one at auction... In my research though I found that they're a lot like multi-family in some ways and different in others. For instance, you can own the real estate and manage yourself or you can own the real estate and hire someone else to manage it. Also, you can buy a small, non-standard, lower tier property or you can buy something investment grade. And you can combine those categories to gain or lose a lot of money.

For example, I have seen tons of small 10-20 key motels in rural areas for sale that are just obsolete and should probably be bull-dozed. However you maybe could make a living self-managing a small hotel in a beach area.

But to really make them work you need to buy larger, flagged as a major chain  and preferably in a growing area in a major metro area. When you get to that type of property you really have no business managing it yourself unless you have some experience. Check out some of the decent Hilton, Marriott, etc hotels near you. They are probably owned by a large company and managed by a separate large company.

If you want to try out hospitality without a major investment why not try a STR property on AIRBNB? I tried that and learned that I hate the operational side of hospitality.

 What did you hate about the operational side? Was it about hating stocking soap and toilet paper between every guest? 

Because that gets back to my point about hiring a manager.

Originally posted by @Justin Bauer:

I have been a owner/operator of a small motel property for the last 20 years. A hotel or a motel is not the same thing as investing in real estate its a business.The value of it comes from the revenue it all depends on what you want to accomplish.My little motel gives me 10 times the revenue as same value as my single family homes of the same value.It also gives me the time to continue learning and net working.

I am at the point that I would like to put a manager in my property and my wife would just as soon sell it than have some one try and manage it.There is no one that cares more than a owner and it shows. I have stayed at 300 dollar a  night hotel that are filthy because some one did not care.

It does not take very long to ruin a reputation of a property and a long time to restore it.

I hope this helps

 Okay.

So are you at the desk checking everybody in? Are you cleaning every room and doing all the laundry?

What work do you hire out?