All Forum Posts by: Andrew Syrios

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Feb 21 2025

This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area

Redfin lists 1,463 New Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

Redfin lists 5,888 Total Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

And here is the price distribution

We'd need some point of comparison on an annual basis. You don't even have the numbers from the week before so there's no reason to think these are abnormal. And I think it should be pointed out that number of federal layoffs in percentage terms compared to the total employed is still quite low. 

The first post IS the Point of Comparison.
AS I wrote

"This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area"

I want to start with a baseline of existing at the beginning Feb 21 2025 and compare to 1 year from now - Feb 21 2026.

 Why not compare to one year ago or look at the multiyear trend?

Layoffs were just announced. It hasn't been long enough to see how those that are ordered back to the office or are laid off will react.

The question is "what is the change in real numbers of government employees in D.C. as a result of decisions made by the administration in 2025". Housing inventory is a by-product, while interesting, it is not the salient part of the focus.

We won't know until next January, but it's interesting to watch and see if promises to reduce the government are kept.

Well I think the question is what effect will those layoffs have on the housing market in DC. Effects on housing (to some degree) will be a byproduct of those layoffs, sure, but the entire point of this thread is about the effects those layoffs will have on housing. And the best way to do that now is to compare present listings to those at the same time in the last few years.

Welcome to BP Brandon and good luck investing!

They used to talk about the 2% rule, which was basically a ruse to get you to buy in the absolutely worst part of town where you got 2% on paper and only on paper. I torn that thing to shreds a long time back: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/2015-05-06-2rule-die-horr...

The 1% rule used to mostly work as a "pre-filter rule of thumb" as you say. But these days, even the 1% rule is often unrealistic and pushes you toward terrible areas. 

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Feb 21 2025

This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area

Redfin lists 1,463 New Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

Redfin lists 5,888 Total Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

And here is the price distribution

We'd need some point of comparison on an annual basis. You don't even have the numbers from the week before so there's no reason to think these are abnormal. And I think it should be pointed out that number of federal layoffs in percentage terms compared to the total employed is still quite low. 

Everyone in this Industry at least who sells RE to Homeowners NOT investors knows the cycles and right now the cycle is MORE LISTINGS period nationwide.. then come about Nov.. people slow way down B/C of the holidays and in other markets winter is slow because weather is so snotty.. In those markets sales are perking up now when inventory gets listed and as I said stays consistent to the end of OCT or so..  Investors they are on a different time clock. 

I don't know about that... I think I can make some pretty interesting trends with one data point

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Feb 21 2025

This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area

Redfin lists 1,463 New Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

Redfin lists 5,888 Total Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

And here is the price distribution

We'd need some point of comparison on an annual basis. You don't even have the numbers from the week before so there's no reason to think these are abnormal. And I think it should be pointed out that number of federal layoffs in percentage terms compared to the total employed is still quite low. 

The first post IS the Point of Comparison.
AS I wrote

"This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area"

I want to start with a baseline of existing at the beginning Feb 21 2025 and compare to 1 year from now - Feb 21 2026.

 Why not compare to one year ago or look at the multiyear trend?

Welcome to BiggerPockets Steve and good luck investing!

7% is probably good for projections, but I would ask whatever bank you're planning to go with where they're at and factor in an extra 0.25% to be safe. And yes, it would need to season, usually 6 months to a year after you close. (Again, ask the bank.)

These days I lean toward flips (which is unusual for me) but if the numbers show it cash flows all in with a 7% loan, then sure. BRRRR would be a good way to go.

Quote from @Ken M.:

Feb 21 2025

This is just a marker to see if Federal Layoffs actually affect the real estate in the D.C. Area

Redfin lists 1,463 New Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

Redfin lists 5,888 Total Listings In D.C. Area Last Week from Manassas Park to Bowie (why those points? Because that's what fits on my screen) ;-) There is no regard to type of listing and new construction is not included

And here is the price distribution

We'd need some point of comparison on an annual basis. You don't even have the numbers from the week before so there's no reason to think these are abnormal. And I think it should be pointed out that number of federal layoffs in percentage terms compared to the total employed is still quite low. 

One step at a time. It's definitely a "get rich slow" scheme. The vast majority of your wealth gain in real estate will be by holding properties long term and the appreciation/principal paydown will slowly but surely help you become wealthy.

For 90% plus of people out there who are looking to start, house hacking is the best way to go. You just can't beat the financing available, the rate is good but the LTV (96.5% on FHA loans) is unbeatable.

Welcome to BiggerPockets and good luck investing Aqualis!