Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Charles Granja:
Hello Bruce,
It's not about interest rates, its about yields and principal risk.
In investments you have market risk and idiosyncratic risk.
When we think on quantifying these risks and assigning a discount rate, we can look at 2 components. Risk-free rate and risk premium
This is an informal way of showing you that what you are saying is incorrect:
If the risk-free rate is 5%, then an investor should not invest in anything with risk at 5%. That would mean real estate, stocks, literally anything.
-Why would I invest in anything that has risk when I can get the same yield risk-free?
If the SMP 500 gives an average return of 7% return each year, and has minimal risk, then we do not want to invest in anything that has more risk for the same yield.
-If a value-add project/flip/start-up also give a 7% return, why would I invest in those projects when they are giving the same yield as an index fund?
Interest rates could be 50% right now, but if we are getting a 20% IRR it doesnt matter.
Real estate prices have increased considerably in recent years due to low interest rates. Now that we are in a high interest rate environment with high prices, real estate yields have been compressed, and are generally not worth it given their risk profiles.
Thank you for taking the time to reply with your opinion. We think very differently about this apparently.....
It's really not about either interest rates, yields
or principal risk when you get right down to it. It's about can the investor make enough money, in whatever amount of time they feel comfortable with, to make them happy (with the perceived ROI and other factors that make people happy).
You are assigning a risk rate of 5% (or whatever) to RE. That's an assumption. Lots of people :-) can find properties, fix them up a little and double their money in a couple years. Then you have a different ball game, eh?
You do say that RE is 'generally' not worth it, so you got that right. Kinda, sorta..... But with your inside-the-box thinking, I would definitely not recommend that you purchase Real Estate anytime soon.
Hi Bruce, very neutrally posted, and wise. I respect you for that Bruce. I totally agree with the perspective. Interest rates are not high. Prices are still low. And deals are out there and flying off some shelves. One only has to actually look. I see deals everywhere, I just whish I had the capital, the time, and the motivation to grab them all. I'm just in a cruise mode at the moment.
Just as what makes a man is not his age, but his experiences, the same applies to real estate. For some context, I'm Gen X. And as such, I have come to understand that some people are just not made for REI, all the time. Where there's a will, there's a way. But it takes WILL, and not just skill, to find the full benefits of REI. Assigning a risk for comparison between two totally different asset classes is not wise investing. This is especially true for REI. And it appears that there is a lack of WILL to find and make deals happen.
Take a moment and think about this... Staying out of the market just because you feel the easier path is in the stock market can hurt you in the long run, if you want to be in REI or use REI to achieve FI. One big difference is leverage. And that's a BIG difference. To get that leverage, as you grow, or aspire to grow, in REI, will require a resume. You just wasted a few lines on you resume because you feel it's safer in the stock market for now. You will destroy so many opportunities for future growth. That resume will determine your future.
Prime example, buy a few lower than desired cash flow properties now and into the next few years vs. investing in a good yielding stock/fund at 7-10%. Now, fast forward a few years and both people are in REI. Who do you think will excell in REI quicker? The guy in the trenches, or the newly minted stock holder with higher cash money? Let me be more clear, who will the lender trust with their money? The guy with a resume, or the guy with $ and stocks? One guy will be able to jump a few times higher than the other.
I would not be able to cruise with just a few years of REI, had I not put in MAXIMUM EFFORT. But it also had to be deliberate moves and a better understanding of real estate. It was all done before I discovered the forum or BP. It comes from experience.
Experience is earned, not studied or debated. But then again, I defer back to my foundational theory... what's your risk tolerance? How much WILL power do you have? Opportunities will always present itself, but only YOU can dictate the EFFORT you will put in for your desired outcome.