All Forum Posts by: Ronald Ty
Ronald Ty has started 5 posts and replied 68 times.
I would argue that as long as there is a shortage in inventory, the prices will continue to go up. Historically, it has been 2-3%.
People like to say there were a ton of deals in 2008-12 & there were.
but they don't talk about there still was a ton of competition. There always will be if it is a good deal.
And they also don't mention that the values kept coming down and down. When you buy a home thinking it will be worth 200k arv and then it sinks to 190k, it makes it tough to make $.
Been hearing about a correction just about every year since 2012 lol.
there is too much inventory at least in my area. Until that changes, I don't see a correction. And I definitely don't see a crash. That was a once in a lifetime situation.
And people keep talking about the interest rate hike. While it os higher, the reality is 6-7% is still cheap $. In the late 70s, it was in the high teens. Now, they was a problem.
BP has too much drama. :)
I have yet to (including the books recommended here on BP) find a book that dont do a good job on how to invest in real estate. For example, when you sell a home to a 1st time home buyer, they are more than likely going to need a closing cost credit. I budget 3-5k for that.
People in here say 9n here how, if you lose $, then that's part of your education. I say bull. If you educate yourself enough and stick the principles of proper arv, use a home inspector until you know enough, and can properly do your rehab estimate (thru an gc for tour 1st several), you can avoid all of this.
Underestimated the rehab or overestimated the arv.
Post: Thoughts on buying flooded properties as flips
- Posts 68
- Votes 30
Quote from @Eliott Elias:
A property being located in a flood zone does affect its value. You need to base your ARV off other properties that have sold in a flood plane.
Believe it or not, people are still paying for these properties near the ocean. It's all about the location..
Even the sheriff sales are crazy high. Some of these guys do most/all the work themselves and still don't win the property. 1 home was worth 500k and sold for 430k. After paying all your closing and property taxes in arrears, you've got nothing to rehab.
I like to follow up on buyers who pay a lot for a property. Most do most of the work themselves. One was a married couple. They put in 6-700 hours of labor! No thx!
another investor put a renter in there with little to no rehab. House was in really bad shape. The concrete steps to the door were in disrepair and a trip hazard. Again, no thx!
and then you can have homeowners who will delay some repairs until later and/or do the work themselves even if it's cash. Had a neighbor do this and it was a sheriff sale so sight unseen. Went it the home (5000 sq feet) and the amount of work was ridiculous. But they wanted their kids in the school district. They would have been better off just buying any other home in the neighborhood. Plus,the stress and aggeevation. Dod i also mention she was pregnant,
Quote from @Wendy Patton:
@Jay Hinrichs To start here is what Google says on this question: is the economy getting worse?
The consensus estimate on the probability of a meaningful downturn in the American
economy in the next 12 months is at 65%, according to Goldman Sachs
Research. But our own economic analysis rates that probability much
lower, at 35%
Economic momentum is slowing, amid higher interest rates and a banking crisis, new gross domestic product report shows. The U.S. economy wobbled in the first months of 2023, growing at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, as higher interest rates and a banking crisis dragged down activity across sectors
The US economy is likely to get worse before it gets better, according to forecasting by EY. The combination of persistently elevated prices, high interest rates and now tightening credit conditions will weigh on business investment, consumer spending and the transactions markets in the coming months
Almost two-thirds of chief economists believe a global recession is likely in 2023; of which 18% consider it extremely likely – more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022. A third of respondents consider a global recession to be unlikely this year.
And there are so many more - however, I am stating this from my own view of the world around me. 1) Rising housing prices without the same increase in incomes will eventually price too many people out of the housing market - which will slow down the real estate market. The reason it's still hot in SOME price ranges is there is still a shortage of inventory but increase pricing and interest rates will slow that down as it prices people out of the market. 2) our country continues to increase it's national debt - in 2022 30 Trillion now it's 31.5 trillion 3) US Inflation Rate is at 4.93%, compared to 4.98% last month and 8.26% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.28%. 4) US News on stock market: It's not just Wall Street that's concerned. Sentiment among U.S. consumers is tumbling, according to a preliminary survey by the University of Michigan. That's a worry because strong spending by consumers has been one of the main forces preventing a recession as the economy slows.
Unemployment is a little better then it was but most other indicators are not good.
I hope that helps with my perspective