All Forum Posts by: Jason V.

 I'll take your word based on real world, real market experience over an Internet article any day. I am always a little suspect of anything that's "confirming" what's already a popular idea in a group of people. Potentially shoddy methods just make it even more untrustworthy, but I'm not expert enough on stuff like this to know any better.

@Mindy Jensen - I think it's tough to compare today's market to pre-correction 2008. Leading up to the 2008 correction banks were giving mortgages to anyone who woke up on the right side of the dirt....and probably quite a few who didn't. Today's lending environment has a lot better fundamentals, and I think the foundation is pretty steady. 

@John Thedford - I tend to lean this way too, although the markets that don't roller coaster as significantly are probably not in as questionable a situation.

@Russell Brazil - Without getting political either way, I find it interesting that the BP members who express concern about politics affecting the markets negatively all seem to live in areas that leaned Democrat, and all of the BP members who are optimistic about the economy seem to come from areas which have been hit really hard the last 10-15 years, and just turned out in a big way for the Republicans. 

@Chris Martin - I agree their methodology might not be the most accurate measure, but if it has been done consistently, then the trend should still be true - right? Or is the situation you use to illustrate something that is becoming more and more common? 

@Thomas S. - I think you hit the nail on the head, but I prefer Buffet's version: "Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful." 

@Ethan Summers @Jeff B. - Thanks for the input guys

I think I'm just kind of somewhere in between needing any real CRM and just using a contacts list, but I do enough with my list that it'd be nice and helpful to have some automation added to it. 

I do very selective direct mail and cold calls, and I essentially just need a reminder system when it's time to pick up the phone and dial a certain number, or write another letter to a specific owner. I suppose using a CRM would give me room to expand going forward, but I don't really want to invest the time, energy or money to do it right now when I'll be using about 1% of the functionality either. 

I heard about a free version of insightly - and here I am. 

Anyone using the free version (or any version) of insightly? I'm looking for some better tools to help me manage the very narrowly targeted direct mail and cold-calling I do, and I'm trying to figure out if I should just automate the spreadsheets I currently use, if I should convert everything into some sort of free/low cost CRM (because I'm really not using it that much, or looking for a lot of functionality right now) or if I should take some other approach.

Thoughts? Experiences?

@Stephen Bagnani The issue as I see it is that the only places where these "Tiny Home Communities" are attractive are areas that have prohibitively high costs of living due to restrictions on new construction/development....which essentially means where ever they actually might make financial sense to build them, it isn't going to be allowed. 

California has some of the most restrictive new construction/development regulations in the country, and Southern California wins the gold medal for least friendly market to build (which is also why no one can afford to live there - when a 1 bedroom apartment is $2200-$3500/month, there's probably an issue.) 

If you take this idea to an area that actually allows development, you're going to have a really hard time finding any demand for them, and chances are you're going to have an even harder time being cost competitive with real apartments, let alone houses. 

I'm with @Chris Martin on this one (always a safe bet, by the way) - way too much risk, very little upside, and personally, I think it's a fad that'll disappear with the lumberjack beards and man-buns. 

And Chris - are you actually doing new construction, all-in for $72/sq. ft. on small homes? Does that not include your land/utility work or something? I was looking at doing some construction up here, but the best I was able to do, even with my existing network of contractors, was more like $120-$140/sq. ft. on ~2500-3000 ft. structures - and that didn't include the cost of the land (I'm sitting on 14 acres I got thrown-in as part of another deal, and now I'm trying to figure out what to do with it.)  If I could build for under $75/sq. ft. I'd be thrilled. 

If you subscribe to the Jefferson Lily school of thought on mobile home investing (which I do) you should never pay more than a couple of grand for a home, regardless of condition. Might want to check out some of his stuff, or the BP podcast he did (#111)

Good luck!

 The opposite actually, because I'm assuming that there is an issue, and that it will require remediation/correction. I can't be sure what the issue is based on your description, but I like finding properties other people are unsure of, or scared of because of things like that: it's just a big old hammer to use when it comes time to negotiate, and/or means fewer people are going to be interested in the property.

I also happen to be an engineer, and I've done a fair amount of construction in my life, including masonry and framing work, so not much scares me. If you're not confident about things like this, have a mason and a carpenter take a walk through the property with you during due diligence (or a GC could do both.) If you already have relationships to leverage, great. If not, be honest about what you're looking for, and offer lunch for their time until you have a real business relationship with them. Once you've done a couple of projects with a contractor, they should have no issue doing walk-throughs with you, or quoting on jobs that may or may not happen (as long as you're upfront and honest!) 

If you've got 7 SFH as experience in the same area, and your numbers are looking good (give yourself a big margin of safety for a first deal in MF) then I say: go for it.

If you're not interested, I am! 

Welcome to BP @Lynn Fujihara!

I'm not trying to pile on top of all the negativity about investing in "Upstate" New York (even though the only reason I continue to invest here is because I live here - if I was investing remotely I would never consider it.)

But I will throw something else out I haven't seen mentioned yet: I'm very, very bearish on higher education rentals right now, because there are a lot of indicators that higher education is a huge bubble, potentially on the brink of popping. Google "Higher Education Bubble" and you might be shocked at the results.  

Does that make a city that relies heavily on student rentals a bad choice? Not necessarily, but if that's all a city has, and it's about to have the axe taken to it, I would definitely consider it when evaluating markets. 

Also, this is a topic that's been discussed quite a bit around BP, and like everything else, there are some markets that will still do well with student rentals, despite the overall indicators for that market not looking very good. This was a good discussion about some of those markets

Good luck!

Welcome to BP @Peter Magistrale! 

I lived on Long Island for about 5 years during college (and have spent the rest of my life in the Rochester area) and I can tell you right now: Rochester might come as a bit of a shock to you, depending on the area. There are plenty of areas and suburbs that will feel very much like home to you, but a lot of the city will make Riverhead look like the Hamptons. If you're planning on making a trip up anyway, try to see as many properties as you can - don't make the drive just to look at one. Since you're new to the market, work up and down the price range as well. 

To give you an idea of what this market can be like, I have some friends who just bought a duplex that's probably only a couple of minutes away from the 6 unit you're interested in - and they paid more for 2 units than the 6 you're looking at. And the same distance in the opposite direction there's 11 units for sale for $275k right now. 

That said, I would strongly advise you at least analyze a bunch of deals within easy driving distance of where you are right now, before sinking the money into a remote market. Some of Rochester is cheap for a reason, and local investors haven't bought most of what's on the market for a reason. Don't get lured into the $30k Duplex trap: listen to everything Ben Leybovich has to say about the topic before pulling that particular trigger. Just because it's a lot less expensive than Long Island doesn't automatically make it a good deal. 

If you eventually decide to buy up here, there is a good network of investors, many of whom are on BP.

Good luck!