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All Forum Posts by: Jason V.

Jason V. has started 66 posts and replied 472 times.

Post: Medium Multi-Family Market Analysis Methodology

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426

@Steve Santacroce - I agree, so I probably should have been a little more specific (as broad statements are guaranteed to get you into trouble on this forum!)

If you look at the historical appreciation in Rochester (the previous 10, 15, 30, or 50 years) the gains have been in the bottom half of the national average. Everything else being equal, I'd like to be in an area where I'm in the top half, or even the top quarter on that scale. 

Then again, one of the things I do like about the Rochester market is that it's very steady: because we don't get the crazy appreciation cycles that some areas do, we never really run the risk of losing half our property value in the span of a couple of months either. 

And I'm not dead-set against Rochester either. I could very easily be convinced it's worth staying here if there's evidence to support that (especially with the convenience factor.) I'm just hitting a point in my investment career where I have quite a few options, so it's hard to know what the right course is - and I'm looking for better ways to make those decisions.

Post: Medium Multi-Family Market Analysis Methodology

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426

A Happy New Year to the BiggerPockets Community!

While I wait with baited breath for Brian Burke's annual market analysis for the coming year...

(His 2016 analysis: Best markets to buy multifamily in 2016: A round-table discussion)

...I thought I'd ask around the community to see if I can figure out how to do this myself with a slightly different focus. 

I understand the generalities of how this study was done, and most of the major factors (population growth, job growth, etc.) but I'm less interested in properties in the 100+ unit range and Tier 1 markets. My focus right now is in properties I can self-manage (or mostly self-manage) and get into without having to raise capital, syndicate, or otherwise make myself hugely accountable to outside investors that I have no existing relationship with. (I would never feel comfortable with investing someone else's money in a way I hadn't done before on my own with great success.) So, in my mind, I'm looking at ~30 unit properties in Secondary and Tertiary Markets in the Northeast that have solid economic outlooks for the next 10 years. 

My home market of Rochester is currently bogged down with taxes and in one of the least business friendly states in the country, and is projected to lose population and businesses in the next 10 years. Yet there are also a lot of people coming here from out of area because it's cheap and cash-flows. I'm going to keep investing here because I live here and I know the market, but I don't see any real growth, which means we won't see any real appreciation (which is the historic norm for the area.) So in the short term, the cashflow is good, and as long as I'm buying value-add properties I don't have to worry too much about appreciation - but if I can do those two things in a market and get some appreciation on top of it....why wouldn't I want to do that instead?

What I'm really interested in is learning how to find and select these types of markets for myself, or at least figure out a way to start narrowing them down. What factors are most important? How are they weighed? Where can I find reliable information on population change and economic outlook?

So if you just want to say "Indianapolis is awesome" that's great, and I appreciate your input, but I'm still going to figure out for myself if I think you're right or not. 

Thanks All!

Post: Analysis on multi-units

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426

@Michael Le - Thanks for the clarifications! It really does sound like Mr. Sumrok is a savvy and successful investor, and runs  a legitimately good training program. It's also nice to get this feedback from someone who's obviously invested a lot into the BP community, and who is active in their education as well. 

I think one of the reasons so many of us are anti-guru, anti-seminar, anti-whatever, is that we've seen it all go horribly wrong so many times, and also have to put up with a lot of the "I'm so fired up because I just paid $25,000 for a mentorship (which you don't find out about until later) and you should come invest all your money with me even though I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing!" It seems like the first and only thing some of these gurus teach is how to raise money - but why on earth would anyone want to invest with someone like that?

I think one of the biggest risks is that people without any sort of direct REI experience aren't even able to tell the difference between a legitimate education and a complete scam. It might be similar to buying a used car without ever having seen one, and not knowing it's supposed to have an engine in it. If the folks who were paying for an education were more open about it, maybe there wouldn't be such a stigma. (Or maybe they'd get harassed so much they all left the community - I'm really not sure.)

In any event, thanks for taking the time to respond to my post. I try to be even-handed because I know there are good programs out there, but I also tend to look at paid coaching/mentorships in REI as playing Russian Roulette with 4 or 5 rounds in the cylinder.

My wife and I still both have W2 jobs currently, even though we're active investors - I'm an Engineer and she's a Registered Nurse. 

(And yes, I responded to the poll as well.) 

Post: Show me your 2% rule

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426

Couldn't agree more on C Class properties. I'm typically buying at 3+% "rule" which isn't all that difficult for this market. You can also lose a lot of money on 2% "deals" in my market, because of taxes and other expenses not common to other markets.

IRR is a great metric, but it's hard to use for long-term buy and hold because you have to project an exit time and amount with reasonable accuracy. The purchase and sale/refinance of the property are going to be the largest drivers of your IRR, so if you get your sell price wrong, you might as well not bother using IRR. If you're flipping or BRRRRing it works great (at least it better) and your projections will be validated/corrected very quickly. It can still work well if you're doing shorter term buy and holds (3-7 years) - but to project an exit price with any degree of certainty out past 10, 15, 20 or 30 years....I'm not buying it. Just natural appreciation/inflation are going to have a huge impact over 30 years, and could vary quite a bit between what we expect now, versus what we actually get in the future. That's when the other metrics (cash-on-cash, for one) are more valuable to me.

Post: Analysis on multi-units

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426
Originally posted by @Mike Dymski:

@Jack B.  Hey Jack.  Bonnie is likely taking the same funds (or $0) that she would use to buy 4 homes and using it to purchase 400 apartment units and getting a large chunk of the equity in those apartment units (along with getting other compensation/fees).

Yes, you can use private money to purchase 400 SFRs as well.  She is suggesting that it is significantly more efficient to do that with an apartment complex or two rather than 400 separate properties.

Bonnie is likely being conscientious of BP protocol in not replying with information that would appear to advocate her business or violate capital raising rules.  Syndicators/sponsors add to their private investor network through many channels, one of which is networking on BP.  Passive investors also use BP to find and vet deal syndicators/sponsors.

So I got a little curious, and decided to look around a little bit. Right on Bonnie's website, they state that they are Paid Students of Brad Sumrok Professional Mentoring. Like I said, there's nothing wrong with someone wanting to drop $25,000 or more to get an education from someone, but if you look around on BP a little bit, you'll see pretty quickly that Mr. Sumrok is a successful syndicator in the DFW area, and hosts seminars a couple of times a year which his members do get referral fees for getting people to attend. (Again, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with any of this - but I tend to get suspicious when I find these things out on my own, rather than being told by the person involved.) 

It looks like his program is pretty well reviewed, but there's one thing I really, really don't like about it: they charge a $5,000 membership fee to anyone who wants to invest with them, even passively. I'm obviously not an expert on this particular program, and many people probably fee this money is well spent, but again - I don't like having to find out these things on my own. 

From the posts I was reading, they have investment minimums around $100,00 as well (again, not uncommon at all.) 

More to your point: I would never, in a bajillion years, invest in a deal the syndicator didn't have their own money in. I also wouldn't invest with someone who had to borrow the money to do the groundwork on a syndication deal (i.e. a brand new person with no money of their own. I actually can't think of anyone I would want to invest with less than that.) Even if you can do an entire MF deal with OPM (and I hate that term) you'll still need to cover the hard costs to put the deal together, which might push six figures depending on the deal. 

There's no BP "protocol" against pitching seminars, gurus, networks, or anything else - I think she just knows how gurus and seminars are viewed around here, and hiding those associations just makes people even more wary. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but the fact that her BP profile says nothing about her association with Mr. Sumrok, along with her apparent reluctance to disclose what seminar she wants to refer people to, combined with (in my experience) the practice of charging people an access fee to be considered as passive investors for syndicated deals....I'd advise anyone getting involved with this to evaluate other options as well. 

But for all I know, Mr. Sumrok's organization is top-notch, and I'm an idiot for not investing with them right now. I could also be completely misunderstanding the BP posts/comments I've read from other Brad Sumrok Investors and Students, so feel free to correct me if that's the case. I'm just trying to make the newer folks (of whom there are quite a few right now) aware of the risks associated with paid mentorship/group programs. I obviously just feel as if people should invest on a small scale on their own (or with a partner for a deal or two) before getting involved in large MF syndication.  To each their own. 

Post: Analysis on multi-units

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426
Originally posted by @Bonnie Staples:

Hi Chibuzor each out to me personally and I will be glad to share  BP seems to not like us to post info - but I'm glad to share reach out personally

 Not exactly sure what you're referring to here Bonnie - there are many regular contributors to BP who have done thousands or tens of thousands of deals who will post their strategy, approach, analysis, and budgets down to the very last penny. (Brian Burke, Serge Shukhat, J Scott, Chris Clothier, Michael Quarles, etc.) 

What BP definitely does not like is folks who come on just trying to pull people into private discussions in order to sell them a course/mentorship. Many times sellers want to have these conversations privately because they know a public discussion on a forum like this will get them "outed" as a guru, rather than a real investor. I'm not saying that's the case here....but it sure has the appearance of that: you're a newer member, you're pitching a "life-changing" seminar, and throwing out some claims that probably seem really exciting to newer folks "4 SFRs that equate to 400 MF units" (which probably translates to you selling a syndication seminar.) 

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I apologize - but if your posts keep looking like this, I won't be the last person to make these assumptions on BP. 

Chibuzor - I would be very, very cautious about spending any money on training, seminars, coaching, mentorship, or education of any kind before you have a couple of deals under your belt. If you are already a successful investor and make the decision that this is the best way to learn a new approach, that's one thing. But there is way too much great information available for free here on BiggerPockets, or at your local library for you to be spending money on anything else yet. 

If you absolutely have to get help/education on your first deal, find a good local investor (tons of them in Texas) and start bringing them deals with the understanding that they'll walk side by side with you through the whole thing. Give them half the profit (or whatever you work out) and you'll get a better education than some seminar and you'll get paid to do it. 

Good luck!

@John Matthewson - To answer your original question, check out a book called "What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cashflow...and 36 Other Key Financial Measures" but keep in mind the (arguably) most important factor in MF investing right now is the market you're buying in. 

Good Luck!

Post: Just made my fist deal

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426
Originally posted by @Nicholas Salvia:

hey all super ecited just bought my first 2 family in Roslle park.  Right down the street from the train station great location.  Only worry is that its settup for 2 zone heating BUT there is only 1 furnace.  Any ideas of prices to get a second one installed?  also should i even worry about it?

 I know you're saying 'furnace' but sometimes people throw that word around for any heating system. If this happens to be a hot water baseboard system with a shared boiler, you can sub-meter the two separate zones (splice meters into the water lines right as they come out of the pumps) and split the fuel bill accordingly. This assumes the two different zones are set up correctly (with one zone for each unit.) 

If it's a forced air system you're out of luck - just roll the cost into the rent and pay the entire bill. 

Good luck!

Post: First Deal Frustration: What did I do wrong?

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426
Originally posted by @Jennifer Cornforth:

I've only bought 6 properties so far, but what I've seen from many years of watching real estate is that if you dont start with a reasonable offer, the deal isn't going to go anywhere. We're not haggling for the price of a t-shirt or a cab ride where someone can ask $50 and you counter with $25. Usually, owners do a lot of research before putting something on the market and they know how much they want (need) to get on the sale.

I feel like it's safe to offer 10% below asking. 20% below asking may be dismissed as an insult. We have to consider the human element. Of course, if you dont really want the property, it's fine to offer as low as you want. But that's like going into a night club and propositioning every woman there—try it enough times and someone may say yes! But if it's a property you actually want, it's best to start somewhere not so far from asking that it will be dismissed out of hand.

 That's a really interesting perspective - what market are you buying in? You could be entirely correct for your market, but my experience in my market has been very different. Not that long ago I offered less than half of the listed asking price for a property, and several weeks later (after a lot of negotiating) reached an agreement at less than 2/3rds of the original asking price, and I got a separate parcel of land (13 acres) thrown in to 'sweeten' the deal (and yes, I closed on it all.) 

You'll probably never see anything remotely like that in a hot market, but here in the rural rust belt you can do it all day long. Maybe one of the only good things about it :-) 

Post: First Deal Frustration: What did I do wrong?

Jason V.Posted
  • Investor
  • Rochester, NY
  • Posts 477
  • Votes 426
Originally posted by @Derek Rocco:

Man, thanks to everyone for their advice and thoughts. Invaluable stuff. 

To answer some questions:

@Jason V. The reason I thought to use hard money is because I didn't want to go through a bank due to the down payment. You are right to suggest I should just wait. I did talk to two smaller banks and they said they would fund a deal below 100k. Here were my expenses:

I could make another offer, I just feel that it's a little tight against my number which is 72k.

 I understand not wanting to go through a bank, that's for sure - but I also have a hard time justifying the extra interest of hard money when there's another option. Just be glad there are options!

As far as your numbers go, I'll tell you what I typically use as a safe starting position for Western New York, small multifamily investing on the bottom half of the economic scale (probably in an area not too dissimilar from the larger area you're shopping in Pittsburgh.) 

Vacancy: 10% (If I'm managing it myself. 12%+ Otherwise.)

CapEx: 10% For initial evaluation (but this really needs to be an actual number, and yes, it can be calculated fairly accurately.)

Management: 12% (10% of gross rents is typical, and you're going to pay extra for lease-up fees, maintenance up-charges, etc. Unless you find an awesome, cheap manager, or have quite a few units, this is a pretty typical price, especially in lower income and/or smaller population areas.)

Repairs: 10% (On an old building with existing issues especially) 

So yes, I use 40% of gross rents for my ballpark expense estimation on these types of properties, and then add in all of the hard costs (garbage, utilities, insurance, mortgage, insurance, etc.) And yes, they are probably a touch high, but I'm OK with that - I'd much rather estimate on the safe side and be pleasantly surprised. But I also self manage (for a lot of reasons) and do as much of the work on the properties myself as I can - but I still budget to pay someone else to do them. 

Keep making offers and good luck!