All Forum Posts by: Timothy Lewman

@Mandy Cohen I have a fundrise investment in my SD IRA. So far they send regular updates and pay a quarterly dividend. No complaints here.

@Timothy Lewman @ben stacey

@Ben Simon I invest in flips too. I dont see any reason to slow down or pull back. As long as price increases are trending up it means demand from buyers is outstripping supply from sellers. More broadly, we have positive wage growth, strong consumer confidence, increasing same store sales for retailers.

Things I'm watching that are concerning are President Trump tweets and comments that have way of blindsiding markets. Tariffs and trade wars that have dampened manufacturing generally and raised costs of housing materials specify. If interest rates and, hence, mortgage rates shoot up that will be a negative for housing prices.

If you get lower prices and slowing sales that will be a real problem for housing and us flippers. Right now I'm full speed ahead in my investments I dont see any reason to pull back.

@Bernard Chouinard you're welcome, I find the charts and graphs help to show the big picture trends of what's going on in our state.

October closed sales stats are as follows.

Warren Group, reports all closed sales - on MLS and off MLS, shows that the median price of Single Family Houses in October 2019 was $388,000 - up 3.49% from October 2018. Mass. Association of Realtors (MAR) has a figure of $400,000 for all MLS sales, which is up 2.56% from October 2018.

The number of transactions for the Warren Group checks in at 5,224 for October 2019, up 0.83% from 10/2018. MAR shows 4,943 sales, up 1.79% from 10/2018. If you were looking for off-market properties, you had 281 to choose from (=5,224-4,943).

Inventory and new listings again took a nose-dive from 10/2018. MAR shows there were 13,437 listed properties, down 12.81% from 10/2018. This was partially fueled by a drop in new listings of 6.08% at 6,287 for the month. This is the seventh month in a row of declining new listings. Simply put, people are staying right where they are.

Our months supply figure registers 2.8 months; 6 months is considered neutral. This remains a sellers market and will for the foreseeable future.

Case-Schiller index barely budged both locally for Boston and nationally - nothing to see here.

My fundamental analysis hasn't changed - a lack of sellers shown in inventory and new listings has constrained supply and continues to boost prices. Low mortgage interest rates boost demand from buyers, making these higher prices more affordable. Certainly this can't last forever for until something changes we are stuck in this pattern.

I have my September update of housing stats for Massachusetts closed sales. We have some trend reversals and some that just continue in the same direction. 🏠🏠🏠

I follow two sources of info 1. The Warren Group (www.thewarrengroup.com), which tracks ALL recorded sales/transfers from each municipality in the state. This includes family transfers for $1.00, sales that are not listed on the MLS and sales from the MLS. These sources skew the data down for sales prices and up for transactions. They don't provide a robust amount of data, which is why I primarily rely on source #2. 2. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MArealtor.com) which ONLY tracks MLS listed closed sales - does not include off market or infra-family sales. This gives a more accurate representation of the retail market in MA.

With that out of the way, the Warren Group reports a median sales price for single family homes (SFH) is $399,000 up 5.15% from September 2018's figure of $379,450. (👩‍🏫 Math teacher says median = half the sales are above and half are below that amount; it's not the mathematical average). They also report that closed sales volume is 5,017, inching up 1.57% from Sept 2018 4,942.

MARealtor.com provides a much more robust set of data that I track and have multiple charts/graphs down below. They show the median retail sales price is $410,000, up 5.13% from Sept 2018's figure of $390,000.

Closed sales checks in at 4,733, up 2.42% from Sept 2018's figure of 4,621. Doing the math, we have 284 sales (6% of closed sales) that are off-market (=5,017-4,733). So if you were looking for a flip or wholesale project in September you had 284 SFH to choose from in Massachusetts.

What is driving these price gains? Inventory changes! Inventory = the total number of houses for sale, once a home's status changes to pending or contingent it is no longer included in this number. Inventory collapsed 11.18% to 14,129 from Sept 2018's figure of 15,907. Inventory changes are fraught with wild fluctuations, see the Yoy % change graph.

New listings = Listing what a status date in the Sept. reporting period. Didn't change much, 7,235 down 2.02% from Sept 2018 7,384.

When you combine the draw down in inventory with slightly lower new listings = price pop as the buyers chased fewer properties. I wish there was some measure of how many buyers there are that didn't get to purchase/close so we could get a fuller picture.

Enjoy the charts and graphs - it helps to fill in the gaps and shows the trends. In real estate we focus on year over year (YOY) changes due to the seasonal nature of buying/selling in New England. Frigged temps, holidays, and piles of snow discourages listings and home shoppers. 🤧 If there is anything you'd like to see that isn't include, drop me a line I might be able to conjure it up!

@Ben Feder the best advice I can give you is to generally keep your wallet in your pocket. Having said that, after I got to know a few guys at my local Reia's, I did purchase one guy system and its really good, under $500, totally worth it. I wouldn't buy anything from some outside, fly by night guru, that you'll never see or hear from again. you can learn on BP and at your local REIA.

@Mike Briggs can you buy it 'subject to', keeping the existing mortgage in place. Does the current owner want any cash to move or will they sell it for the $108k debt? Tell him/her there is no margin at retail price so you're not able to help at retail value. Not every deal is worth pursuing, sorry.

@Phil K. Yeah I'm not a fan of the parlor heather either but it's better than freezing! I'm not sure how they impact rent or marketing but Worcester has lots of them so if they work and are half decent shape I dont think I would mess around with them.

@Phil K. Good job Phil! Consider the missed items your tuition payment. Learn from your mistakes and move on.