All Forum Posts by: Troy Forney

 In NW Indiana 1 and 1.5 ratios were easy to find in B areas.  You could even find 1.5 to 2 in B and C areas.  Recently the word has gotten out about what a great area this is to invest.  Now even 1% deals are gone unless you go to D areas, which we don't do.  I have been considering investing in other areas further away.  

Believe me I have been looking, but I have not found a property that meets my criteria in over a year. 

I do believe in the 18 year cycle. I know some don’t just different schools of thought. So that leads us to 2026. Of course it’s not dead on all the time, but the big question is how much has covid and the long term debt cycle affected it. 

Jonathan-I agree, if there is a bubble, definitely not the same reasons.   It would be hard to believe that this could last forever. I mean I have properties that have doubled and quadrupled in value over the past 6 years. Of course forced appreciation was involved also. Still I never imagined. If I cared more about appreciation and less about cash flow, I might be inclined to sell. 

I guess that’s why I haven’t bought anything in awhile. My worst property is like 1.35. I just can’t bring my self to go below 1%. My concern is these investors buying below 1% are barley breaking even. When the homestead comes off and taxes go up it might be a rude awakening. A lot of newbies getting FOMO

Maybe its just me.....  Being in the Real Estate Business for 20 plus years, I am started to see some similarities of the last bubble.  Now I am not saying we are in a bubble.  I don't know.  They are a lot of factors to consider and lots of signs are present, but if I had to go from my gut only, I would say yes.  The logical mind does tend to consider all the data on shortages and low interest rates, and droves moving from Illinois etc...  Whether you go with your instinct, gut or logical thought, It doesn't matter.   What I do know is this.  I have seen a lot of deals coming across my desk of people over paying for investment properties.  I look at the numbers and think, that doesn't even meet the 1% rule or .80 for that matter.  I think its going to be a couple years, but there are going to be some investors in trouble.  And yes they are taking mortgages.  

Thanks Taylor. Yes 49 still working.  All but one are 4% or below. The one will be able to refi in 3 months. Doesn’t seem worth the closing costs to refi down to 3.5%. 

Over the years I have taken all my retirement money and bought rental property. My wife and I have 8 units now. Four sfr’s and two duplexes.  Since 2014 the values have done very well our ltv is 50% and cash flow is good. The return on just the cash flow has been way better than the average 7% retirement portfolio. So my question is…..  what do you all advise? With nothing to buy right now and uncertainty in the market. Should I start contributing to retirement again or payoff properties? I need a plan now. If there were property to buy I would buy more, but there isn’t. I could hold cash and wait but values may not drop, much if they do. Who is to say. I’m familiar with the 18 year re cycle, but that doesn’t seem like the best plan. Meaning….wait.  What do you all think?

Appreciate the input.

Just closed on a 100 year old 2 story duplex.  Three trees on the property are about as old or older than the building.  They are very large and very healthy.  One of them has a large branch right over the roof about 30 feet or more up.  Its healthy and just with stood 40 mph winds prior to closing.  Should I spend the large amount of money to have it cut back or don't worry about it?