All Forum Posts by: Vaughn K.

 Good for you if you work in healthcare, I appreciate it. I really mean it. If you're doing all the right things, then you aren't part of the problem... But most people with your attitude have been running around at bars still, not washing their hands, and doing endless other stupid stuff. Maybe you're the exception that has your opinion but is still taking the proper precautions.

All I'm saying is this is a big deal... And the ever smaller minority of people who are shrugging it off as nothing, "It's just another flu!" etc are WRONG.

My comparison is perfectly reasonable for anybody who gets how analogies work. It's two different ailments that if taken seriously won't be a big deal... But if ignored will be a MAJOR problem. 

 All that I can say is... I don't believe a single number that has ever come out of China about ANYTHING. They've been caught lying about darn near every statistic that has ever been scrutinized. Things may have improved, but I'd bet my behind they're fudging the numbers to look better than it is.

To the point about the business owner... It is blowing my mind how many intelligent, capable people seem to be completely unable to grasp this situation. They're not all Trump supporters or anything like that either. I was reading articles on a libertarian website and a good chunk of those guys, who largely hate Trump, are more skeptical than is reasonable at this point. It's nuts.

 The stock market sell off should not be happening like it is... Because we will recover from this within a year or so at most.

But what is causing immediate problems in the REAL WORLD is the fact that we are HAVING to shut down major portions of the economy. If we don't do the social distancing stuff, then we WOULD end up with millions dead. It's not "panic" to take these measures, they're absolutely necessary. Cutting off a toe or two with gangrene sucks, but it is needed. That WILL have negative effects on you... But to pretend it's all fine and let the gangrene spread more is far stupider, and will be worse in the long run.

So if by panic you mean the stock market tanking and peoples mental state... Maybe the panic is unwarranted... But if you consider the wide sweeping actions being taken to stop this from becoming a true global disaster, then your definition of panic is absolutely warranted.

 I'm not trying to chide you... But you really need to understand this IS NOT being blown out of proportion.

It's like saying "Well, that toe with gangrene isn't a big deal... It's fine. It's just a toe! Leave it be, nothing to worry about."

That is totally true. A toe with gangrene isn't a big deal... Provided you amputate the toe. If you DO NOT amputate the toe, it becomes a big problem. Then it's the whole front half of the foot. A couple days later it's the whole foot. Then you have to cut off everything below the knee. A couple more days and the whole leg has to go, if the patient isn't already too far gone to save.

This is a virus with an exponential growth curve. It is far more deadly than normal flu. It IS killing young people. 1/500 prime age adults, which is actually higher than the TOTAL death rate for a normal flu, which also mostly kills older people. You really need to grasp that this is a serious issue, or else it will bite you in the ***. Half the reason this is becoming such a major problem is people like you ignoring the good advice and continuing on as if nothing is happening. If everybody just took minor precautions it would literally save lives. Go look up the videos of people in Italy talking about how they regret taking this thing seriously. You don't want to be "that guy" when your parents die because you gave them Covid, or YOU happen to be the 1/500 younger person that dies. 

 Oh my God! You STILL don't get it???

You're comparing Swine Flu at the END, to this AT THE BEGINNING. You're not looking at the potential for damage here. This virus credibly has somewhere between 10-30 times the death rate, depending on whose numbers you want to use, vs any major flu in recent times. THAT is why people are freaking.

This may yet still be a not especially massive problem in terms of deaths... BUT if that is the case it will ONLY be because we reacted so strongly to it. If we allowed business as usual then MILLIONS in the USA alone WOULD die almost guaranteed. How many millions is still up for debate, but the 18K of the last swine flu wouldn't even beat the highest DAILY total for this thing if it got out of control.

Again, I've been telling people not to "panic," because that implies making stupid/irrational choices and generally freaking out... That's no good. But to RATIONALLY accept that this is a major deal is not panicking. This IS a big deal. Far bigger than any flu since 1918. You think everything is fine and well in your town... Wait until your town is in the same situation as Seattle (where I am now) is 2 weeks from now, and Seattle is 10x worse. Then tell me how silly it is. 

 I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as somebody sick with the symptoms of Covid in Seattle... They don't have even a slight handle on this mess yet. It's literally impossible to even find out what doctors offices/facilities one can go to to theoretically be okayed for getting tested. I'm trying to get it done because I've been in close contact with several hundred people while I may have been contagious, and it's like pulling teeth. Even the people at UW Medical Center don't know exactly who to contact, and their organization is DOING testing. It's that big a mess.

I'm keeping at it though, as I'd like to be able to give people a heads up if I am confirmed to have it. Also, if I have already had it, I can be a little more lax after I recover and go out into the abyss without fear of getting it, which could be useful for getting back to work etc.

I said it earlier in the thread, but I'll say it again:

Almost everybody seems to either be under reacting, or over reacting. Very few seem to have a balanced take on this.

I'm in Seattle, and currently sick with Covid-19 like symptoms I might add! Hopefully testing will be opening up finally to more people so I can see if I have this thing or not. Either way I'm doing okay health wise as I am youngish.

Anyway, this is not a nothing burger that will blow over in a couple weeks... But it may be a middlin' level problem that blows over in a couple months. More likely it will ease, but not go away, during the summer, to return with a little less freaking out next fall. Either way it won't be a long term problem.

I think the part that is really weirding people out is the uneven nature of things so far. Some geographic areas are business as usual still... While Seattle literally feels like we're darn near in the middle of an apocalyptic movie right now. It's really eerie how quiet it is, how little activity is going on, how many places are just outright closed down. Many, many, many millions in sales/business have stopped almost overnight here for lots of people. I know tons of people who have been laid off already. A side business I have has already suffered big losses here in Seattle, and I suspect this will cost me at least 10s of thousands of dollars in sales before it's all said and done. But I'll survive.
 
THEN you have other places that are normal still. Even weirder, within Seattle there are a lot of people that aren't effected much either. Tech workers working from home aren't really being "hurt" much yet, although they might have had a concert cancelled they wanted to go to or whatever... While other people are freaking out about making their car payment, rent, buying food, etc already.

This uneven nature seems to be tripping people up a lot. Mind you, all the places that are still normal WILL be like Seattle over the coming weeks, and the sooner they do it the better. The more we can prevent the spread in the early stages the better. An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure! But it's important to remember the temporary nature of all this, it won't go on forever.


People selling stocks right now are morons... But that's ALWAYS the case in market crashes. There has NEVER been a reason for Coca-Cola stock to drop like a rock, yet it does every time there's a market bust. Why? Because the long term prospects for Coke, and 10,000 other companies, has always been fine. But people are dumb. Don't be dumb yourself, and benefit from the dumb if you can!

But yeah, this thing will be a major disruption for at least the next few months. Basically people in the 1st world are freaking out because we've been insulated from reality for so long, but stuff like this just happens guys! And the world moves on after the sucking is over with. If we don't get it under control I would guess 1% death rates or lower, perhaps hitting 60-70% of the total population. That would be a lot of people, but not the end of the world. Just a really crappy year. The total number of people with the illness vs PROVEN to have the illness makes the current predictions of death rates totally wrong. I possibly have it, and I'm just mildly sick, and I'm not counted on any list... And I may never be if they don't allow me to be tested.

The fact is the government is already starting to throw out "helicopter money" to everybody that needs it. Unemployment has basically just been promised to everybody, even in situations where they wouldn't have qualified a week ago. Bailouts for businesses are also already happening. Specific bail out money directly for rent is ALSO being discussed already. So all that will temper the issues at the source, which is people not being able to work for awhile. This may spur inflation for a bit as it will ultimately all come from the magic money printing press, but it probably won't be horrible. There will still be other trickle down effects, but it will mitigate a lot of the worst stuff.

Governments seem to be ready to go as all out as they were during the Great Recession to deal with stuff, and underlying economic fundamentals are better in many ways than then... So at most I'd suspect a mild recession and everybody moves along. 

So again, this may be a rough few months, or even a rough year... But it's not the end of the world. I say this as somebody typing from the US epicenter of the crisis, losing a ton of money already, and possibly sick with the stupid plague myself! 

 I've already said what the death rates are, and they're well known. Basically 80+ is 15-20% death rate, 70-80 is 9-10%, 60-70 is around 4%, 50-60 is 1-2% and other age ranges drop down to .2-.4%. Those are essentially the ranges as slightly different numbers have come from different places.

To put that in perspective, most flus have a TOTAL death rate of .2%... The range this stuff is for young healthy people! But those same flus hit old people extra hard and are just as skewed age wise as this. This thing is like 20-30x the death rate for all demographics as a normalish flu virus. It also seems to spread more readily than your average flu. THAT is why doctors and people who understand this stuff are freaked out.

Imagine is 10-20% of ALL elderly people died THIS YEAR. It's not that they wouldn't have been on their way out of this world in the coming years or decade anyway, but that's a big shock, and will strain the health system trying to keep them alive. Plenty of people in their 60s and 70s are still highly valued workers, investors, mentors, etc too. It's not like we won't lose any productivity if these people all die... Not to mention it's just callous to think "Who cares if 20% of old people all die, I won't!"

Then there's all the knock on economic effects. I've already said I think we'll be 100% fine in the mid to long haul, this IS NOT a world ending scenario... But it's going to be a heck of a big mess in the short term. Between now and potentially next fall/winter is when all this mess will unfold.

To use an analogy, this is a short term trauma, not a terminal illness. It's like breaking your leg, where it hurts real bad, and is a massive inconvenience for a short period of time... But you get over it. This is not terminal cancer though. But having a broken leg is a REAL bummer while it hurts like heck and the cast is still on! People who think it's a proverbial skinned elbow are trippin' and haven't grasped the numbers yet IMO. They're in the denial stage. As someone in the epicenter of the US outbreak, Seattle, I can tell you already that this is an absolute disaster... And one that will be spreading to every major city in the USA unless they all take massive, proactive, social distancing measures immediately. 

Brian, the reason people are freaking over this is because of the death rate, and the rate at which it spreads... You're comparing swine flu after it was all over to basically the first inning of a 9 inning baseball game with covid. This has the potential to be far, far, FAR worse. Not saying it will be for sure, but it's highly likely. If it doesn't get really bad the only reason will be BECAUSE we reacted very strongly to it. If we'd have been smart every city in the country would have imposed moderate social distancing a month ago. The fact that some still aren't is incredibly stupid, because in a couple weeks they'll all be as bad or worse as Seattle is now, and by then Seattle will be proper screwed up.

I live in Seattle and going around town and seeing EVERYTHING dead is NO JOKE. This is already hurting people in very real ways... As a matter of fact I may have the corona virus myself now as I just started feeling sick yesterday, and of course there's no way to be tested unless I'm on my deathbed because of the lack of testing kits. 

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

Originally posted by @Vaughn K.:

Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Originally posted by @Vaughn K.:

I only read the first 2 pages then skipped to the last page... But I feel like there are 2 categories of people that describe 90% of the population:

Those that are freaking out too much. Probably 10% right now.

Those that are not taking it seriously enough. Probably 80% right now.

Then there are maybe 10% being realistic about how bad it may be, but without freaking out about it. I'm in this category myself. Maybe it helps that I have many months worth of food, a very good water filtration system, and a ton of medical supplies and other kit handy :) I could not leave my house for months and be fine even if it does go full apocalyptic! But it won't anyway. 

The truth is this has a high probability of killing a couple million people just in the USA, and many, many more globally. They'll mostly be old and sickly, but that's an awful lot of grandmas dying and upper level (read middle aged and older) management at big companies going the way of the dodo in a short span of time. It WILL NOT be the end of the world, but it could be a major disruption. Even if it stays more mild and kills only a couple hundred thousand, it's still going to freak people out, and cause a lot of problems. 

Bottom line is it's too late to contain it. Everybody in the world needed to blacklist all travel out of China in late December/early January to do that. It's too late. Trying to contain it now is straight up whack a mole. You can stop one cluster, but another three will just pop up elsewhere. 

So that means it's probably going to sweep most of the population globally. The real death rate is likely far lower than reported since mostly only serious cases are getting tested and used to do the math on the death rates. It's DEFINITELY not 3.4% in 1st world countries, or probably even 3rd world ones. Maybe it's 1%, maybe even lower. I doubt it's 2% for the same reason 3.4% is bunk. But 1% is still 3.4 million in the USA if everybody gets it. If 50% get it it's 1.7 million, and you can do the math on different scenarios. For every person that dies though there are several that require heavy duty care in the hospital. Our medical system could get VERY strained. 

I think it's going to get bad, and then chill out when warm weather comes. Then everybody who is dumb will think it's over... When in reality it will probably come roaring back next fall 10x worse. Same thing Spanish Flu and most things tend to do, especially if they hit late in the season like this did for their first year. After next winter it'll probably become a non issue, or at least a manageable one people don't freak out about anymore.

The real question is are we going to try to do hardcore stuff that wrecks the economy to try to keep the infected rate lower (maybe 25% or 30%!), or are we going to throw in the towel and only have modest measures like "Avoid big events, but still go to work, and it's cool to visit your sister half way across the country," and risk 50-70%+ of the population catching it. Time will tell. I think the containment measures are useless at this point as it's just too late.

Anyway, moral of the story: It's not the end of the world as we know it... But make sure you call grandma before she dies... Because she very well may die by next winter from this stuff. It could be pretty hairy, and the financial markets may be a total mess, but we'll bounce back fairly quickly once we've really ascertained how bad things are after next fall/winter. All things considered, this is highly likely to at least kick off the long overdue (hopefully) modest recession that we've all been waiting for. I'm just hoping my personal situation isn't impacted much (it shouldn't be) that that I can take advantage of the chaos.

 OMG!!

Covid 19

SARS

MERS

Swine Flu

Avian Flu

HIV

Ebola

Earthquakes

Tsunamis

Hurricanes

Tornadoes

Cold War

Nuclear annihilation

Chicago Cubs won the world series

It's definitely "End of Days" folks.
Sell all of your properties and catch a flight with Elon Musk to Mars before it's too late!.

And when, pray tell, did I say it was the end of the world? Nowhere. I specifically said it IS NOT the end of the world. But to ignore a pandemic that is VERY likely to kill millions worldwide is silly too. If we get something like a worst case scenario in the USA (and elsewhere) we could see millions of deaths just here. Again they'll mostly be old or sickly... But in the USA almost every one of those people will be put into an ICU, or at least hospital, crowding out room for everybody else with health problems.

This stuff is not insignificant. The death rate is just high enough to be not awesome, but also not end of the world stuff. The knock on effects will certainly cause major disruptions. The problems for people with other serious ailments due to lack of ICU beds, delivery problems, supply chain problems, massive drop in business at restaurants, hotels, airlines, etc. A server who doesn't make money at work will not spend money on other things, which means the person at those businesses will see declines too, on and on.

Even if this remains mild I do think this will be the catalyst for at least a minor recession, since we've been overdue anyway. I suspect that all of you people who think this will be a nothing burger will be eating your words a year from now. Especially if it isn't bad this fall/winter and only really kicks off next fall. Time will tell!

Just because some of us know how to read exponential growth charts, which is what is happening with these covid 19 cases, and realize it could be a semi major thing DOES NOT mean we think it's the END OF THE WORLD. There's a lot of stuff between nothing burger and end of the world. This is somewhere in between... We just don't know which side of that scale it's going to be closer to yet.

one thought is since it looks like this is going to be very hard on the elderly.. there will be a bigger than normal transferance of wealth to Heirs.  Who will then spend their inheritance ??

Indeed. Current figures are still showing 15-20% death rate among those 80+, and around 10% for 70-80. Those are some real high figures, especially for the wealthiest age demographic in every society. There may well be crazy knock on effects if this thing hits almost 100% of said demographics and 10%+ of all elderly people pass away in a short span of time.

A few weeks ago when I first read death rates by age stats I started half jokingly saying that this virus might save social security so I actually see some money from it! I'm on the younger side. It's callous, and I was mostly kidding... But large scale spread could very well have some big effects like that and wealth transfers via inheritance would be another one.