All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

@Mike Dymski curious as to why you’d say it’s typically the opposite? Developers spend a fortune on market research and big data analytics in my experience.

@Chris Hughes I love crazy ideas and new perspectives. If you’re mulling something over, throw it out there and let’s see what happens!

@Caleb Heimsoth as I've said on the other thread, I understand that my strategy is chalk full of risk. I'm not drawing parallels between myself and a $4B REIT. My strategy is drastically different. That said, we are operating in the same market at the same time in the same market cycle. What I'm trying to understand is why everyone thinks we've hit the later stages of this RE cycle. I don't think that the market and the way the larger players are investing tells that story. Do you? If I'm going to take on risk I want to do it at a point in the market cycle where we still have room to run. My contention is that we do in fact have room to run.

@Shiloh Lundahl it sounds like I could stand to learn a think or two form you! I know absolutely nothing about Florence, AZ.

I’m probably guilty of industrial bias, it’s hard not to be when you watch multimillion dollar deals be made each month. That said, I’m also privy to some very insightful data.

Are you willing to offer up any details on how you’re finding these deals? Sounds like you’ve got a team you’re working with?

@Scott Mac it’s interesting though because while the top guys do want their bonuses the firm itself only stays in business if they can return a profit to their investors. They have a fiduciary responsibility to them after all. I’m not talking about the fly by night kind of developer though here. The big players in the game will do everything they can to make sure they don’t get stuck holding the bag. That’s the only way to stay in business in the long run. That said, it doesn’t appear that any of them are in pullback mode right now, not in my market of Phoenix anyway!

@Shiloh Lundahl I completely agree that geopolitics can play a huge part in things. Venezuela is a great example. Once upon a time I lost my shorts on an oil play because the new Saudi Prince decided to play hardball. It’s actually been my inspiration to switch over to real estate. That said, what is your strategy for taking advantage of these unique market conditions? Are you trying to squeeze your investments for growth or are you sitting back and watching the cash flow accumulate? Just curious where you think we are at in the “cycle” or if, like me, you think the cycle is going to be drastically drawn out before the downturn because of the supply side factors I mentioned.

@Faheem Walji interesting. What makes you feel like right now is a good time in your market? Or did you just find a deal that you can’t resist?

@Darius Ogloza that’s seems to be typical of many western markets right now. How are you approaching your leverage given that you’re playing the long game?

@Brian Spies I agree 100% that cash is king and that none of these approaches make sense without a long leash of cash reserves. That said, do you get the same feel for the market right now that there is a pullback while most wait for the other shoe to drop?

@Scott Passman I think the point I’m trying to get across is that this 2020 market is not like any we’ve seen over the last 30 years. All the trend analysis in the world won’t help you when the market factors are starkly unique. In the stock market people tend to take their ques from institutional investors. If the same approach carried over to the real estate world we’d be following them into a buying/building spree right now. I don’t know that I believe any developer can be an expert in predicting the future, but I do know that they are spending millions of dollars in diligence before they step off the sidewalk onto a busy street. Just my humble opinion.