Quote from @Chris Martin:
@Yi C. I agree with the points in your post.
My Disclaimers:
1. I build and own my projects. Historically, I have not sought to acquire land with the intention of leasing the land to another developer/development company. I am not against the buy-to-lease method, for someone else to implement, but right now it's not what I do.
2. In my markets I am tactically focused only on <500 kW implementations. Strategically, I aim to fit into as many development exemptions as possible. The 'entitlements' part of most projects >=500 kW consumes most of the development timeline. I just don't have the patience to wait four years and spend 6-figures for environmental studies on a 1-MW, four-acre project. That's why no one builds 1-MW to 5-MW now. Projects have become really big or really small. 500 kW and under exemptions? Yes, please.
Projects, large and small, fail for a lot of reasons. Changing legislation, primarily at the state and local (county) level, I think, is one of the biggest reasons for cancellations in NC and VA. Many places are 100% NIMBY. Even some municipal electric companies don't want to work with small IPPs. Yes, I have first-hand experience with that (technically illegal) prejudice.
Lease problems sometimes result in project cancellations on larger projects. Technical issues with "impact studies" results and who pays for mitigating environmental issues is another.
On small projects, equipment upgrade costs for substations can be a showstopper. In Sampson County NC, SREMC handed me a $100,626 estimate for substation upgrades for a 500kW project. I put that project on the back burner since higher development costs and thin margins were already causing us concern.
Thanks again for the response. These are absolutely very valuable information to help me adjust my strategies!
I would expect buy-to-lease strategy is suitable strategy for people without "hardcore" backgrounds in interconnection, permit application, system design and project management. These are really out of my capability to navigate. This comes with drawback that I have no control over the design. This links to the system design.
Here is my guess regarding the system size trending (I might be wrong) - Most of the developers I have got in touch with (at lease in CA) are still interested in 1-5 MW projects as more and more transmission project suitable lots were taken/investigated/too expensive to construct. Though CA authorities keep limiting the interest of such projects, I can still see interest in these projects based on the interconnection queues - still new ones are being added to study despite the increased cost and reduced revenue.
You also make a great point regarding < 500kW systems. I can see as more and more lots were being investigated developers will move to smaller projects that sits even closer to customers. Just got few thoughts:
1. Are these ground-mount system or roof-mount? I saw there are lots of roof-mount implementations on parking lots/high schools in CA recently. I would see zoning will be an issue for small ground-mount implementations. Zoning codes across different places did put limitations to ground-mount solar projects that exports and sales while roof-mount ones seem to be less restricted.
2. NIMBY, public hearing, environment study is going to be an issue absolutely. I am hoping the lot being worked on can go through but no one knows. Different counties/towns has different requirements on who to contact for public hearing. Imagine close to dense residential plot and required to invite all residents for public hearing - it will be a headache to go through.
3. Upgrade is going to be an issue no matter the size I believe. I did have a chance to went through some phase 1 studies. Imagine putting 3 MW project that requires 1-2 million to upgrade distribution line, substation, putting smart monitor etc. This is my biggest concern. I do know some developers might be willing to pair with battery to improve interconnection stability but battery fire news will be another concern to neighbors (and myself).