All Forum Posts by: Account Closed
Account Closed has started 4 posts and replied 100 times.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
@Account Closed Also, just want to give a tidbit. The reason why people say that gold rises when S&P drops is due to the fact that as stock investor/trader it is easier to liquidate and buy into gold then to completely pull the money out of the stock market and not gain anything while the recession hits. When there's more demand on a supply, prices go up =].
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
I’m just curious about the data suggestion we are nearing a downturn in the San Jose area
Didn't get a notification, but here is the data for S&P500 using the program that stock investors and traders uses (it's called thinkorswim by tdameritrade if you are curious). I'll try to make it short.
That is 15 yr timeframe measured daily. Do you see the consolidation in the beginning of 2017 and 2018? basically consolidation is where the market is basically just going up and down without no clear direction. Now look into the the 2006-2007 before the dip in 2008. Looks similar where it has huge 'swings' compared to the other times it went down a bit. Won't spam this forum with pictures, but if you zoom in to look at every single tick mark, it shows that within days, there has been huge sell offs.
While I play the stock market, I don't hold positions longer than a week. I am what is known as a swing options trader in the stock market community. Basically I draw up contracts putting 'option' money down to control large amount of stocks without paying for it. Someone buys my contracts when I predict right and I get the difference. Same thing as subject to or wholesale.
I also play the FOREX market (currency, but instead of companies the whole country), that you have to get approved by banks since I control 1:400. Meaning for every dollar I put in, the bank or broker will put 400 in. I collect all the profit, bank collects the interest. Reason why I know about economics. If you are not successful in trading, trusted brokers will not approve you to trade. IF they somehow does and your trade goes wrong, all your money in the account will be taken.
Looks impressive. The only flaw in your theory is that your trade can never be as quick as a Hedge Fund trade. You will be left holding the bag when that happens. It doesn't happen slowly, it happens like when the "Flash Crash" took place. All gone. Fast!
Reason why I am getting into RE market. Too many big dogs in the stock market. Worse in the FOREX market. With FOREX you are playing against the government reserves. At least in the RE market, you can get deals and get inside scoops which are harder to do in the other markets.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.
I’d be careful throwing around numbers like “the California housing market went down by about 35%”
CA is a huge state with a wide variance in prices - but the Bay Area was most certainly not hit as hard as you suggest.
What other data do you have to support an upcoming crash in the Bay Area other than historical anecdotes? Or anecdotes of people saying they think it might happen.
It’s interesting that you use the tax bill as a cause for the recession NOT to hit - many people blame the tax bill and subsequent increase in rates as an indicator that prices WILL drop
You're right, you don't have to believe me or majority of investors on here. If you know anything about economics, you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy and prevents recession. Don't really want to get into economics since it'll be too much to put on here if you don't even know how rates and the tax bill are keeping the recession at bay.
Wow! "you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy"
@Eziekel interesting economics! Well then, may your rates and taxes rise to the moon. ;-)
LMAO, have you even read the actual tax bill? Do you know what the fed rates are for? Really got to research the market. Easy to make a ton of money when for the past ten years every money has been nothing but up...
;-) Actually, yes. I am a student of macro economics and geo-political impact on the economy. I also have learned about gravity. What goes up, must come down. We have a national debt that has to be addressed and unfunded liabilities that have to be funded. That means states like California and Illinois and New York are going to see substantial real estate property tax increases to meet the requirement. People will move from those states to better run states. I know about (economic) contagion, the fact that demographics put us on a negative yield curve and that gold is currently at $1200 but will go up when the S&P drops (or so they say.) I know that Russia and China are trying to dump the dollar, which won't work, and that Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina are on the verge of collapse. I know that South Africa is threatening to take the land of white farmers which will cause starvation because blacks in South Africa don't know how to farm. I know that China is instituting laws making it illegal to invest outside of the country. I know a lot of that money has been going into Seattle, the Bay Area and So. Cal. I know that once that supply line of easy cash dries up, the market will correct in the areas that the Chinese have been investing in. I know that when the Fed raises rates, many people are shut out of purchasing a house because it causes their ratios to no longer support the financing, it also scares home buyers who were affected when their parents lost their homes to foreclosure in the great recession.
But, I never tell people this because 1) They can't handle the truth (actually they just won't take the time to learn it) 2) It gives me a tremendous investment edge.
True, I never tell other investors in my area about the certain projects that I am privy to or have researched. Kinda defeats the purpose if everyone knows a good deal. I actually minored in macro economics as well.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.
I’d be careful throwing around numbers like “the California housing market went down by about 35%”
CA is a huge state with a wide variance in prices - but the Bay Area was most certainly not hit as hard as you suggest.
What other data do you have to support an upcoming crash in the Bay Area other than historical anecdotes? Or anecdotes of people saying they think it might happen.
It’s interesting that you use the tax bill as a cause for the recession NOT to hit - many people blame the tax bill and subsequent increase in rates as an indicator that prices WILL drop
You're right, you don't have to believe me or majority of investors on here. If you know anything about economics, you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy and prevents recession. Don't really want to get into economics since it'll be too much to put on here if you don't even know how rates and the tax bill are keeping the recession at bay.
You and I are on the same page about the effects of increasing rates (they couldn’t stay so artificially low for so long without consequnces) and the benefits of the tax bill
I asked you if you had any data or could at least point to any tangible signs of the Bay Area market taking a “hard hit” (your words) any time soon.
Look at the S&P 500 trend. it basically encompasses the stock market. You would see that in the past year the prices are starting to consolidate instead of a steady up. That is a sign that investors are liquidating assets. When that starts trending down, that will initiate full liquidation of companies. That's the simple version of it. But when investors liquidate companies will start cutting jobs due to the loss of income from stock market. The bay area has a lot of those companies. When jobs are cut, people start to foreclose on homes. When homes are foreclosed, the surrounding homes' value are lowered.
I imagine since you play the stock market and you are noticing that we are nearing a downward trend that you are holding some pretty large short positions in the S&P?
But I know results talk and people can lie. So here is one of the last trades I did (stopped trading to focus on setting up RE business):
One of my best trades actually. 37% gain in less than 1 hr. Of course when you do option trades, you normally don't want to put too much in the line (all the purpose of leveraging). I normally average about 20-25% per trade though (which is why I had a screenshot of this one).
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
I’m just curious about the data suggestion we are nearing a downturn in the San Jose area
Didn't get a notification, but here is the data for S&P500 using the program that stock investors and traders uses (it's called thinkorswim by tdameritrade if you are curious). I'll try to make it short.
That is 15 yr timeframe measured daily. Do you see the consolidation in the beginning of 2017 and 2018? basically consolidation is where the market is basically just going up and down without no clear direction. Now look into the the 2006-2007 before the dip in 2008. Looks similar where it has huge 'swings' compared to the other times it went down a bit. Won't spam this forum with pictures, but if you zoom in to look at every single tick mark, it shows that within days, there has been huge sell offs.
While I play the stock market, I don't hold positions longer than a week. I am what is known as a swing options trader in the stock market community. Basically I draw up contracts putting 'option' money down to control large amount of stocks without paying for it. Someone buys my contracts when I predict right and I get the difference. Same thing as subject to or wholesale.
I also play the FOREX market (currency, but instead of companies the whole country), that you have to get approved by banks since I control 1:400. Meaning for every dollar I put in, the bank or broker will put 400 in. I collect all the profit, bank collects the interest. Reason why I know about economics. If you are not successful in trading, trusted brokers will not approve you to trade. IF they somehow does and your trade goes wrong, all your money in the account will be taken.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.
I’d be careful throwing around numbers like “the California housing market went down by about 35%”
CA is a huge state with a wide variance in prices - but the Bay Area was most certainly not hit as hard as you suggest.
What other data do you have to support an upcoming crash in the Bay Area other than historical anecdotes? Or anecdotes of people saying they think it might happen.
It’s interesting that you use the tax bill as a cause for the recession NOT to hit - many people blame the tax bill and subsequent increase in rates as an indicator that prices WILL drop
You're right, you don't have to believe me or majority of investors on here. If you know anything about economics, you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy and prevents recession. Don't really want to get into economics since it'll be too much to put on here if you don't even know how rates and the tax bill are keeping the recession at bay.
You and I are on the same page about the effects of increasing rates (they couldn’t stay so artificially low for so long without consequnces) and the benefits of the tax bill
I asked you if you had any data or could at least point to any tangible signs of the Bay Area market taking a “hard hit” (your words) any time soon.
Look at the S&P 500 trend. it basically encompasses the stock market. You would see that in the past year the prices are starting to consolidate instead of a steady up. That is a sign that investors are liquidating assets. When that starts trending down, that will initiate full liquidation of companies. That's the simple version of it. But when investors liquidate companies will start cutting jobs due to the loss of income from stock market. The bay area has a lot of those companies. When jobs are cut, people start to foreclose on homes. When homes are foreclosed, the surrounding homes' value are lowered.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.
I’d be careful throwing around numbers like “the California housing market went down by about 35%”
CA is a huge state with a wide variance in prices - but the Bay Area was most certainly not hit as hard as you suggest.
What other data do you have to support an upcoming crash in the Bay Area other than historical anecdotes? Or anecdotes of people saying they think it might happen.
It’s interesting that you use the tax bill as a cause for the recession NOT to hit - many people blame the tax bill and subsequent increase in rates as an indicator that prices WILL drop
You're right, you don't have to believe me or majority of investors on here. If you know anything about economics, you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy and prevents recession. Don't really want to get into economics since it'll be too much to put on here if you don't even know how rates and the tax bill are keeping the recession at bay.
Wow! "you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy"
@Eziekel interesting economics! Well then, may your rates and taxes rise to the moon. ;-)
LMAO, have you even read the actual tax bill? Do you know what the fed rates are for? Really got to research the market. Easy to make a ton of money when for the past ten years every money has been nothing but up...
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Nick Colvill:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.
I’d be careful throwing around numbers like “the California housing market went down by about 35%”
CA is a huge state with a wide variance in prices - but the Bay Area was most certainly not hit as hard as you suggest.
What other data do you have to support an upcoming crash in the Bay Area other than historical anecdotes? Or anecdotes of people saying they think it might happen.
It’s interesting that you use the tax bill as a cause for the recession NOT to hit - many people blame the tax bill and subsequent increase in rates as an indicator that prices WILL drop
You're right, you don't have to believe me or majority of investors on here. If you know anything about economics, you know that increasing the rates and the tax bill HELPS the economy and prevents recession. Don't really want to get into economics since it'll be too much to put on here if you don't even know how rates and the tax bill are keeping the recession at bay.
Post: Personal line of credit and reserves
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
Originally posted by @Ryan Keenan:
No, they want hard cash not you digging yourself more into the hole if something comes up.
Post: Buying multiple properties in year 1 - can I keep this up?
- Rental Property Investor
- Posts 104
- Votes 44
@Nick Colvill Not really familiar with the San Jose RE market, but if it is like any other CA market; a recession will hit it hard. Biggest reason why investors will not start in CA unless they have the funds to sustain the value of a recession when it was inflated when bought.
I do know the economics of San Jose due to being a stock investor and San Jose is the one of the biggest manufacturing city in the West Coast. However, manufacturing companies are the first to cut when a recession starts.
There's already a lot of investors pulling out of California (not just Residential Investors), due to the Stock Market showing signs of potential recession. So while your plan for appreciation is good, what will happen when there is a recession? Many experts are already saying it will most likely happen towards the end of next year. The only thing that saved it from happening this year was the tax bill.
What@Account Closed is most likely talking about are subject to. I would be very careful with those since it technically is not illegal, but if the property is still under a mortgage, the mortgage lender can call the loan. a very useful tool if you know what you are doing, but I personally wouldn't want to go that route.
Just to give you an example: in 2007-08 recession, the California Housing Market went down by about 35%.