It is very segmental market , hard to decipher wacca going on in this market , but some cities are starting bleeding hard …… we can cherry pick statistic that work in our city and what does not work too.What is certain is that 2024 would be the pivot year just like 2008.

- If the realtor is working with investors, they know how long the tenants of a specific tenant pool segment typically stay in the property.

Each of the 3 segment's is unique in many way's vs the other's. 

The real question is how much this would skew the plotted data.Currently, I do split the market into the avg high, mid, and low $/sf segments over time, you can see the high-end (renovated/new) product shifts with the most magnitude (across almost every market not just 91324), but this does not represent absorption like you desire, only $/sf:To research your hypothesis, I would have to:1) Select a year's worth of transactions (ideally across a 10k+ transaction/year market to be representative, say Los Angeles)2) Manually review every transaction's photos, marking them 'Renovated/New' if it is, to segment this transaction data from the rest of the transactions3) Calculate & plot absorption of the 'Renovated/New', and compare it to the absorption of the rest of the transactions4) When overlaid atop one another, their slopes would reveal the impact you mention in your hypothesis #1     -If you are right, we would see the cheap houses slope increase heavily Q1-Q4, with the expensive houses slope decreasing Q1-Q4, and vice-versa.I've run comps thousands of times when underwriting (looking for high-end renovated homes to use as comps) and I have yet to detect such a phenomenon.

This way I could segment those smaller lists for each contractor on the project.

You can go back and look at other markets and if you look over 10,15 or 20 year segments and compare to the historical appreciation rate, you will find that it will be very close most of the time.  

Decades of entitlement have destroyed a large segment of the black commuinity (especially black males).

Social Housing corporations are mostly active in this segment.

Every semi-successful investor in this segment can do these things. 

its a disruptor and I don't know if this is true or not but I believe they are out selling BMW sedans in the luxury segment..