I lend an 80% probability of macro real estate trending within a 10% channel of median home prices, with historical seasonal adjustment, for foreseeable future. 

Being a contrarian has usually played out well historically or you could look in the rear view mirror in a year or two and sang Coulda, woulda shoulda : ). 

:Class A Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 3-5 years for positive cashflow, but you get highest relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% the more recent norm.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 680+, zero evictions in last 7 years.Class B Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, decent amount of relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% should be applied only if proper research done to support.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 620-680, some blemishes, but should have no evictions in last 5 yearsClass C Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, high cashflow and at the lower end of relative rent & value appreciation.

I won't be investing in the riskiest/most supportable asset subclasses such as hotels, and tilt my portfolio the ones that have historically been more stable such as multifamily and single-family housing.

House Bill 1110 requires cities to allow middle housing types — like duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes — in residential zones that historically restricted development to single-family homes.Here’s how it works:✅ Cities over 75,000 people must allow:Fourplexes on all residential lotsSixplexes if two units are affordable or near frequent transit✅ Cities between 25,000–75,000 people must allow:At least duplexes on all residential lotsThis means that in much of Washington, the average residential lot has the potential to legally support more housing types, often without requiring a rezoning process.🔑 Why It MattersThis isn’t just a zoning change — it’s a paradigm shift.Here’s why it matters:🏘️ Unlocks More Housing Options: Legalizes a variety of home types to suit different household sizes and incomes.💰 Promotes Affordability: Smaller housing units typically cost less to build and buy, helping close the affordability gap.🚶 Enhances Walkability: Encourages infill development near transit, parks, and schools — making communities more connected and livable.🌿 Supports Sustainable Growth: Concentrates development where infrastructure already exists, limiting urban sprawl and preserving open space.🔧 Streamlines Development: Reduces red tape and accelerates housing creation by simplifying local permitting processes.🚗 Modernizes Parking Requirements: Relaxes minimum parking standards for projects near public transit, helping cut costs and promote alternative transportation.🏗️ Empowers Local Builders and Homeowners: Gives everyday homeowners and small developers the chance to invest and build in their neighborhoods.📈 Addresses the Housing Shortage: Part of the broader goal to build over 1 million new homes in Washington by 2044.💼 What This Means for Homeowners and InvestorsHouse Bill 1110 opens the door to real opportunity — not just for policy makers or city planners, but for you.Whether you're:A homeowner looking to build a duplex in your backyard,An investor considering a fourplex conversion,Or a small-scale builder exploring infill development...This law gives you a new legal framework to create housing, equity, and lasting community value.🧭 Want to Know What’s Possible on Your Lot?

Similarly, the markets with the best initial cash flow typically have poor historical appreciation and rent growth.

Historically it has not been worth buying down the rate.  

This is compared against our own internal historical performance with similar properties in the same/similar markets in which we operate.

We have full-time boots on the ground in each market, and have a team centralized at our HQ in Texas as well.If you're interested in speaking with some of our current clients, I'm happy to make an introduction.We've historically worked with Aleka in several capacities (as a client of her's while she was with Acorn and Oak and then as our BIC) and our experience with her was always great.Thanks!

Even worse if it’s in a historical district.