Starting out of state can absolutely work if you’ve done your homework and built some level of trust with your team there. 

My background is as a Controller and CFO, a math guy, so I have to know.  

Keep it tight with a five-check “BRRR math”:Buy: Max offer = ARV minus rehab, minus profit/equity buffer, minus all costs.

I did end up working with them so I will respond in more detail a bit later. dothe math in a 3k sq foot house - that 18/SQ is pretty spendy, then another 60k on top of that. 

I once met a homeowner facing foreclosure and jumped straight into the math — equity, arrears, options.

And I like how you tied it back to the neighborhood details — schools, crime, neighbors, resale — because on paper a deal can look great, but if the area isn’t solid, the numbers won’t hold up.As someone just starting out, this reinforces that I need to be just as careful about who I hire and where I buy as I am about running the math on a property.Appreciate you sharing this — it’s exactly the kind of perspective I need right now. 

If you’re just pulling cash without a clear plan or strong numbers then yeah you’re taking on extra risk.It’s less about timing the market and more about making sure the math works with today’s payments. 

1% is a rough guideline for napkin math.

if you do the math, vacancy will eat into your total rent collected much more than a price drop.

Do the math: How much do you stand to lose in 3-4 months (timelines vary widely, depending on the state/market, but 3-4 months is certainly not crazy) of lost rent while pursuing the eviction?