How's your market these last few weeks?

27 Replies

Things are flying off the shelf in Rochester NY. This is definitely an early start to the spring market. We're still at 36 degrees and buyers are flooding to the market. The market is being pushed, and it is selling.

Are you seeing this as well? Higher than normal prices and lots of action?

Cheers,
Mark

Hi @Mark Updegraff

Things are heating up in my market too at the price point where I invest. I am making offers on anything that's open for investor bidding. I am trying more and more to buy package deals to give me some advantage over a retail buyer or an investor looking to purchase 1-2 properties.

I have mixed feelings about it. I have a decent portfolio, so the uptick helps my balance sheet, but the downside of that is that I am paying more this year than I was for similar properties 6 months ago.

Same here but its more the floodgates are opening after the horrible winter we've had. Close realtor friend closed 1 house in Jan, 2 in Feb and is on track to close 15 in March. Many of which were delayed because of the weather preventing inspections.

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Awesome! I've closed 7 so far this year but put a bunch into the pipe over the last couple of weeks. Had a day where I wrote 5 offers... I'm already getting burnt out and we're just getting started!

Denver market has picked up quite a bit in the past three weeks, especially at the low end, I put a townhouse on the market Friday at 109K, I got an offer Sat. for 115k no concessions. It was a foreclosure I bought 3.5 years ago for 45k. I estimate I could only have gotten 80k march 2012, and 95k March 2013. And it snowed Saturday

Originally posted by @Anson Young Young:
I'll echo that the Denver resale market is kicking ***. Any flip we have put on the market this year is gone in 1 day, over full price.
One was $20k over asking price... In Aurora.

That's awesome @Anson Young ! My wife and I are just starting out here in Denver and look forward to sharing our successes on threads like these.

I recently read an article about the 5 fastest moving housing market. Here they are......

1) Oakland, CA

2) San Jose, CA

3) San Francisco, CA

4) Denver, CO

5) San Diego, CA

So I concur Denver, CO market is kicking a$$. With that said, our market is dry and red hot. The inventory is about 1 month. The dilemma for move-up buyers is that there is nothing to buy. The dilemma for FTHB is that there is nothing affordable to buy. Therefore, people are staying put, and agents are starving. This makes the rental market extremely tight. I believe the vacancy rate for San Jose is 2.7% from another article I read last month.

All in all, it sucks to be a FTHB and a renter looking to rent.

Yesterday, in NW Denver, I went to one of my places and a block away I saw an open house sign. I thought, I'll stop by and see what it is and how much. This was a very nicely done but only 875 square feet. The "partial basement" was maybe 6' 3" headroom with no egress window and you had to duck and stoop over to navigate the narrow steep stairs to get there. The agent holding it open said they put it in the MLS at noon and it was under contract in 1 hour for full price. The full price $385,000!!!! Over $400 per square foot. The owner bought the house just 4 years ago at $265,000. I can't believe it. Maybe it's time to sell but then what?

Originally posted by @Bill S. :
Yesterday, in NW Denver, I went to one of my places and a block away I saw an open house sign. I thought, I'll stop by and see what it is and how much. This was a very nicely done but only 875 square feet. The "partial basement" was maybe 6' 3" headroom with no egress window and you had to duck and stoop over to navigate the narrow steep stairs to get there. The agent holding it open said they put it in the MLS at noon and it was under contract in 1 hour for full price. The full price $385,000!!!! Over $400 per square foot. The owner bought the house just 4 years ago at $265,000. I can't believe it. Maybe it's time to sell but then what?

Wow.... Denver is getting even more expensive than the Bay Area. What happened to the 2% rule or even the 1% rule? LOL!!!

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@Minh L. that area is something like the 0.5% rule. We got in years ago and lived there and then moved to the burbs and kept property. Wish I could have figured out a way to have had more of the local RE stick to me along the way.

Bill, I agree with you, I am getting a little nervous. I just sold one flip here in Socal, and what would have traditionally sold to a young middle income family can now only be afforded by relatively wealthy retirees.

Personally, for my market in South Orange County, CA, it is a strange mix of low but increasing inventory, but also slowing price gains as the housing prices are bumping up against the ceiling of the buyer's level of affordability.

So from my perspective, it feels like my market is slower compared to 2012 and 2013 as prices of homes coming onto the market are priced high enough for buyers to walk away, so I feel we are on the cusp of something happening. Not sure what though.

Originally posted by @Bill S. :
Wish I could have figured out a way to have had more of the local RE stick to me along the way.

Don't we all? I talked to a lot of older folks, and everyone wished they had bought a boat load of properties back in the days. Some sold and traded up. Now they wished they had rented those properties out instead of selling them.

It pays to talk to older folks and pick their brain. :)

Things are much slower here in the Metro Phoenix area this year vs. the last two. Price appreciation has slowed markedly, inventory is up and demand down. This is not necessarily bad, it feels like a sane, balanced market right now.

Originally posted by @Albert Hasson :
Things are much slower here in the Metro Phoenix area this year vs. the last two. Price appreciation has slowed markedly, inventory is up and demand down. This is not necessarily bad, it feels like a sane, balanced market right now.

I long for this day to happen in the Silicon Valley. Money is so cheap right now, but deals are so rare out there. A sane & balanced market would be great. Unfortunately, the market doesn't listen to me. Sigh........

@CK Hwang Exactly what you are saying happened on Long Island in 2004-2008. Prices shot up faster than income levels and rents. Then it popped. I am nervous that I am seeing the same pattern here in Denver. Income has to rise relative to the rise in housing prices or people can't afford to buy (or they get loans they should not have been qualified to get and you know what happens then.)

@Minh L. When you say things like "if you think prices are high now, wait until next year" that was the thinking back in the internet bubble days. Better buy now before the price goes up tomorrow and you miss out on all that gain. Same thing with the Long Island market. I had tons of friends who were underwater as a result.

I think caution is in order. I don't plan to pull the trigger unless the deal meets my financial requirements. And if I don't do any deals this year, it would suck but I know I will be better off waiting. It takes a strong stomach to stay on the sidelines.

@Bill Coleman Timing is crucial of course, but its way better to sell a little early and miss out on some gains then to be too late and have deal with spiraling prices and no buyers. I think when it falls it will fall fast. So, At the moment I'm trying to decide exactly when to I will sell some of my holdings. I really want to be on the right side of the impending bubble so I can take advantage in the aftermath.

@Bill Coleman ,

You used the term bubble, but we're no where near a bubble if you look at the housing affordability index and the long term trend of the housing market. Also, there are no signs that we're close to the top of the market yet. How can we be at the top of the market when inventory is still scarce?

I agree with Kevin that you'd rather be a little early than a little late if you decide to liquidate some of your holdings. However, if you're too early, you're leaving a lot of money on the table. If you don't think people can time the top and bottom of the housing market, you haven't listened to Bruce Norris.

Some economist like Nouriel Roubini called the top of the housing market since 2002. That was a horrible call and costed a lot of his followers anguish and money. Some of them are probably still renting now and might have been locked out of the housing market again for the next few years. That's a lot of years to be renting when the house could have been 1/2 way paid off by now. Unfortunately, the media worship him when the market eventually crashed in 2008-2009. Sometimes, staying on the sideline costs money too.