Bay Area Expected Worst Performing Market in 2020

[Jon Q.]

San Francisco is expected to be the worst performing real estate market in the national in 2020. The best is expected to be Austin Texas. This info is coming from Zillow so take it with a grain of salt... and consult other sources of info before determining your target investment market(s).  

The San Francisco Chronicle article is linked below. 

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree?

What markets are you focused on? Why?

Disclosure: I do not work for the Chronicle nor do I benefit in any way if you read it.. I do hold investments in San Francisco, Austin and Charlotte (markets mentioned in the article).
https://www.pressreader.com/us...

[Jay Hinrichs]

Originally posted by @Robert C.:

@Jon Q., Even with a poor performing 2020, I don't think this one year will be a good enough datapoint to show how investing in the Bay Area has done comparatively this cycle, or even if it's a good idea to re-invest OOS at this time. My impression has been that if the Bay Area falls significantly, then most of those other hot markets drop quickly behind it.

So, if you were someone with absolute perfect timing, maybe the optimal play would have been to get out of the Bay Area a couple years ago, to continue riding the perfect wave upwards in markets that are now outperforming us (and subsequently getting out before the next correction). But, barring that perfect scenario, making the same move in 2020 could equally end up a disaster by transferring your wealth and local knowledge out of a "safe" market at a bad time.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see certain local Multi-family markets diverge more drastically from SFR performance, which definitely wouldn't be reflected in national headlines.

@Steven Ko, And yeah the peninsula does have massive wealth! How the heck do we get BP to create a local "Peninsula Real Estate Forum"? I'm tired of clicking on either San Jose or San Francisco or Oakland.

Transaction cost usually defeat the purpose with coming in and out of markets unless your buying court house steps type stuff