Record Low Employment - Do You Think We Will See A Rebound In Q3?

[Jorge Abreu]

The record number of jobs lost over the past two months should begin coming back in Q3 and be largely regained by the end of 2021, according to an analysis by CBRE.

Over the past several weeks, 33.5 million workers filed initial claims for unemployment, indicating that the 23 million jobs gained over the past 10 years were suddenly erased. Jobs lost in April alone totaled 20.5 million—the largest one-month drop in the post-World War II period. The good news is that most job losses were reported as “temporary” and should begin returning in Q3 as an expected economic recovery takes hold.

Do you think we will begin to see a rebound in the unemployment rate?

Click Here for Full Breakdown in Bigger Pockets Blog Post

[Erik W.]

It depends on more factors than anyone on this board understands or has access to.  How people feel in general will be the major driving factor.  If they are scared, they will stay home and not spend money, which means we will continue to crater.  If they feel optimistic, they will venture forth and spend money, which will greatly speed up recovery.  

I see us on a continuum between 1 (absolute disaster) and 100 (absolute recovery).  My crystal balls says we're around 70 now: damaged, beat up a bit, but still fundamentally sound.  We could end up anywhere between 50 and 80 in the next 3-5 months, depending on people's attitudes, whether or not we get a "Round 2" of the virus in the Fall, and what the Govt & public response is to that.

In short: don't make any plans that depend on "things continuing to go the way they are today" because that's about the only thing I'm reasonably guessing won't be reality in 3 months.  I wouldn't take out any 90 day balloon notes, in other words.