EVICTION BAN ENDED PREDICTIONS

[Jason Malabute]

The eviction ban ended a few days ago and here are my predictions. I have talked to many more experienced real estate investors about the eviction ban ending. As much as we want another 2008 like market correction to happen I don't think we'll get it.

There's several reasons why I don't believe the end of the eviction ban will bring a major market correction:

1. Courts are backed up and it will take months if not a couple of years for courts to catch up with evictions filed during the last 2 years.

2. Even if there is a 10-20% increase of inventory hitting the market in the next few months there will still be a shortage of housing inventory. This is because in the last couple of decades population has exploded, but affordable housing has not caught up.

3. Interest rate will remain low for the next couple of years . The feds  cannot afford to increase rates anytime soon because the economy will surely crash.

4. There will continue be a strong demand for real estate because so much money printed recently and people know that real estate is a good hedge against inflation.

 So my prediction is instead of a real estate crash we will get a softening. I see a sellers being more realistic with their asking prices. I see a 10-20% softening start to happen between November 2021 and February 2022. Not all landlords will be affected by these current events (just the ones that poorly managed their properties).

Everything is speculation right now because this is a different situation from 2008.

What is your guy's predictions about the effects of the eviction ban ending?

[Jay Hinrichs]

Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:

I don't foresee a major crash like 2008 but I definitely see some major changes headed our way. Our country is in a precarious position on a variety of fronts. I'm expecting something to happen in the next 18 months that will rock our world, but there are so many possibilities that I won't bother trying to pick one.

I dont see a real correlation between eviction ban and the market crashing predictions. 

as it relates to SFR's depending on the market SFRs that are rentals are a minority of the exiting inventory .. And other than in select markets like Texas FLA GA and a few other states there is NO SFR being built for rental purposes..

to me market conditions risks are related to interest rates  and availability .. IE lack of inventory

sales slowing are seasonal and to be expected  every year.

Logic indicates that the courts only have so much capacity and if there is a run on evictions things will probably take longer.

the other thing I find utterly amazing is when you read main stream media they make it sound like 20 to 30% of ALL landlords are suffering from non pays and such.

When U read BP 97% of BP landlords claim better rental collection performance during covid than in normal times or no issues everyone is paying.. this could be a testament to the advanced landlord degree's that BP members generally have  IE experience and better management techniques to create these very good results compared to what the Media is saying.