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Rates Slide as Global and Domestic Pressures Mount
Interest rates are trending lower across the board. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now approaching 6.25%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped to 4.02%—a notable decline driven by a flight to safety and weakening economic signals. Market sentiment has shifted decisively toward lower rates, with investors responding to a combination of geopolitical relief and renewed global uncertainty. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire, brokered by the U.S., has helped stabilize risk sentiment, while the re-escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—marked by a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports effective November 1—has triggered a sharp selloff in equities and crypto, reinforcing demand for bonds. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% on Friday, underscoring the market’s pivot toward defensive positioning.
Fed Outlook: Easing Bias Grows as Data Goes Dark
The Federal Reserve’s October meeting (Oct. 28–29) is now shrouded in uncertainty. With the government shutdown delaying key economic reports like CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls, policymakers are operating with limited visibility. The September FOMC minutes revealed a divided committee, but the recent drop in yields and softening private-sector data have tilted expectations toward another 25 basis point cut. The federal funds target range currently sits at 4.00%–4.25%, and markets are increasingly pricing in further easing. Fed officials remain cautious, but the lack of fresh data and rising global risks are making a stronger case for preemptive action. Bond yields have responded accordingly, holding near recent lows as traders brace for dovish signals.
Government Shutdown: Data Drought Fuels Rate Decline
Now entering its third week, the federal government shutdown has paralyzed the release of critical economic data. The September CPI report has been postponed, and the jobs report remains unscheduled. This data blackout has left markets and the Fed flying blind, amplifying the impact of private-sector indicators like ADP's weak employment numbers. The result: a muted but persistent downward drift in rates. Agencies like the IRS and FHA are operating at reduced capacity, but core mortgage operations remain functional. With no clear end in sight, the shutdown is reinforcing the market's dovish bias and delaying any potential tightening moves from the Fed. Until the data resumes, expect rates to remain under pressure.
Key Economic Data Releases this Week:

WEEKLY INTEREST RATE SNAPSHOT (this is for primary homes, which is what the majority of retail lenders and news outlets promote/advertise
